Friday, August 31, 2007

Tropical Depression 11-E Advisory #2A

TD-11E is on an "interesting" track right up the Pacific coast of Mexico. Labor Day vacationers, vessels, and interests on this coast and the Baja should keep watch. The depression is expected to be a hurricane (Henriette) by the time it reaches the waters off Cabo San Lucas sometime Tuesday.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310558
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 14 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...15.0 N...98.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Friday, August 24, 2007

Antarctic Operations Gearing Up for Summer

The end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere is the beginning of spring in Antarctica. Already the ski aircraft using the identifier ICE have begun operations.

A good report on the annual US Operation Deep Freeze is at Larry Van Horn's Milcom blog. There is a frequency list at the end.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Last Dean Advisory (#40)

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC THU AUG 23 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 99.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


NNNN

Recon Aircraft Stand Down (Until Next Time)

343
NOUS42 KNHC 231300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 23 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Hurricane Dean Forecast/Advisory #35

000
WTNT24 KNHC 212030
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 45SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 90.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.8N 93.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 91.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

ENDEAVOUR SET TO LAND TUESDAY

MEDIA ADVISORY: M07-106

NASA'S SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOUR SET TO LAND TUESDAY

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - The space shuttle Endeavour crew, led by Commander Scott Kelly, is scheduled to complete a 13-day mission to the International Space Station with a landing at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Aug. 21. The STS-118 mission began Aug. 8 and installed a new gyroscope, an external spare parts platform and another truss segment to the expanding station.

NASA managers will evaluate weather conditions at Kennedy before permitting Endeavour to return to Earth. Tuesday's landing opportunities are at 12:32 p.m. and 2:06 p.m. EDT. The backup landing site at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center in Edwards, Calif., is available but likely will not be considered for Tuesday. The other backup site at White Sands Space Harbor, N.M., will not be activated on Tuesday.

Two hours after landing, NASA officials will hold a briefing to discuss the mission. The participants are:
- NASA Administrator Michael Griffin
- NASA Associate Administrator for Space Operations Bill Gerstenmaier
- NASA Space Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach

After touchdown, the astronauts will undergo physical examinations and meet with their families. Some crew members are expected to hold a news conference six hours after returning to Earth.

The Kennedy press site will open for landing activities at 8 a.m. Tuesday and close one hour after the crew news conference. The STS-118 accreditation badges are in effect through landing. The press accreditation building on State Road 3 will be open on Tuesday from 8 to 11 a.m. The last bus will depart from the press site for the Shuttle Landing Facility one hour before landing. For updated information about the landing, call 321-867-2525.

If weather prevents a Kennedy landing Tuesday, NASA will activate backup landing sites for attempts on Wednesday. Dryden has limited facilities available to previously accredited journalists. For further information, call the Dryden Public Affairs Office at 661-276-3449.

If White Sands Space Harbor is called up for strong consideration as a shuttle landing site, media desiring credentials there should contact the White Sands Missile Range Public Affairs Office at 505-678-1134. Journalists with STS-118 mission badges from NASA will be issued credentials.

NASA managers moved Endeavour's return up a day in case Hurricane Dean threatened mission control at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston. However, the storm is not expected to affect landing.

For the latest information on the STS-118 mission, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

Dean Is Category 5 (Advisory #32)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210244
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

Monday, August 20, 2007

Hurricane Dean Forecast/Advisory #30

000
WTNT24 KNHC 201447
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Sunday, August 19, 2007

GOES Hurricane "Floaters"

Those awesome satellite pictures of hurricanes that the news likes to show are taken from special "floating" images created by NOAA from GOES imagery. They track the hurricane, so you always see what nefarious doings it's up to.

Here's one link. Not the only one, but the one I use.

STS-118 May Land on Tuesday

NASA has planned the first landing opportunity of STS-118 to be at Kennedy Space Center on Tuesday. The landing was moved up a day in case Dean required the JSC in Houston to close.

Dean's latest probability cones put the hurricane well south of Houston, though tropical storm force is possible. This is much less ominous than the forecasts of a couple days ago, which sent the eye right into Texas. Hurricanes, of course, do whatever they want to do, but in this case a strong high pressure system will determine how far north Dean gets.

For sonic boom and/or photography fans, the STS-118 ground tracks for the various landing opportunities are here.

Hurricane Dean Forecast/Advisory #26

000
WTNT24 KNHC 191443
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 75.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 75.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 75.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Scary Dean Advisory #22A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...DEAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEAVY SQUALLS
SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF
CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...
815 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Friday, August 17, 2007

WWW Links for Hurricane Season 2007

The official Utility World Hurricane Frequency List has not been revised yet, but it seems current enough to keep using it for the time being. It lives at:
http://www.ominous-valve.com/hurricne.txt

Users of RSS can subscribe to a truly staggering number of feeds with NOAA weather advisories on anything one would ever want to see. The list is at:
http://www.weather.gov/rss/

As we've seen with Erin, the story isn't always over when NHC stops tracking the remnants of inland storms. The NOAA Hydromet Center usually picks these up when NHC's done. Their advisories are at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropstorms.shtml

The new Hurricane Hunter WC-130J aircraft continue to undergo enhancements of their real time data transmission capability. As a result, the formats used to return information (and their message headers) have changed for 2007. The full (and highly esoteric) information is at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/scn_2007-07-10.shtml

You might have noticed that the Tropical Cyclone Plan Of the Day (TCPOD) messages posted here are always for the next day. Given the time lag between blog postings and their reading, this is good. However, it means if you didn't see yesterday's, you won't see today's taskings.

For this reason, NOAA posts yesterday's TCPOD at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

While the link on the main page of this blog has proven completely reliable for today's TCPOD, another one is at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

For those who really want to know, a rather exhaustive explanation of those cryptic looking weather codes that I wrote when I had a lot more time for this kind of thing is at:
http://www.ominous-valve.com/wx_codes.txt

Here are some other useful links:

US National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Watch Net (14325 kHz, "HWN")
NOAA Hurricane Portal
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Canadian Hurricane Centre
WMO Severe Weather Information Centre
NOAA Storm Prediction Center
NOAA GOES Imagery
US Hurricane Hunters Asssn Web Site
Latest VORTEX data
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
Caribbean Hurricane Network
Yahoo! Hurricane News
AP Global Storm Tracker
Hurricane.com
Hurricane Web Cams
Intellicast Hurricane Tracking
Weather Underground Tropical Page
Terrapin Hurricane Page
Unisys/Purdue Hurricane Page

First Hurricane Hunter Comm

From Allan Stern in central Florida:

13927 kHz USB 2027z: USAF MARS Station "Hobby 29" (WC-130J, Keesler AFB), 140 mi NW of San Juan, for phone patch to St Croix Ops for Hurricane Hunter Ops 340/778-0605 ("Croix Ops"); reports 30 min out. (16Aug2007) (ALS).


It appears that airplanes are being flown to temporary homeplates closer to the storm. At least, this would explain why the generic Keesler HOBBY callsign was being used instead of TEAL. It'll be interesting to hear what the actual missions ID as.

"Hurricane Hunter" flights (USAF Reserve 53rd WRS, WC-130J) do not do anywhere near as much HF as they used to when Miami Monitor was still on-air from the National Hurricane Center. There is some spotty use of HF-GCS. Otherwise 13927.0 kHz USB, the MARS phone patch channel, is one of the best places to snag these.

[UPDATE 17/1920 UTC: It was indeed a ferry flight, moving the WC-130Js to a closer-in airfield. Confirmation at the Caribbean Hurricane Net site.]

Recon Flights Increase (TCPOD)

995
NOUS42 KNHC 171530 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 17 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-085 CORRECTED DEPARTURE TIMES

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 18/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0604A DEAN
C. 18/1000Z
D. 15.8N 69.0W
E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A DEAN
C. 18/2200Z
D. 16.7N 72.3W
E. 18/2300Z TO 19/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0804A DEAN
C. 19/0930Z
D. BOUY DROP MISSION--12 BOUYS CNTR NEAR 20N 84W
E. 19/1200Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. BEGIN 2 A
DAY GIV MISSIONS AT 20/0000Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Amateur Hurricane Watch Net Activates

The Hurricane Watch Net has activated on 14325 kHz USB as Dean nears the Lesser Antilles. The purpose of this net is to relay weather observations to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, FL, and to disseminate the latest NHC advisories to anyone needing them.

In a procedure that may be new for some people, HWN is now advising listeners to monitor the Maritime Mobile Service Net frequency of 14300 kHz USB for information and HWN activation notices. A weak station was active on this frequency at 16/2317 UTC reading a hurricane advisory, and then taking a standby for vessels.

This net has a web site at http://www.hwn.org/ .

The official Utility World Hurricane Frequency List is here.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Dean Is Getting Nasty

Hang on, this is a big one:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 161450
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Flossie Disappears, Hurricane Hunter Flight Cancelled

Flossie just vanished in colder water, largely sparing the Big Island.

Dean is cranking up on a track that usually spells trouble this time of year, and may become a Category 3.

The feature in the Gulf is now T.S. Erin, and it's raining in Houston.

Thursday's NOAA and AFRES "Hurricane Hunter" tasking:

494
NOUS42 KNHC 151230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT WED 15 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1200,1800Z
B. NOAA2 0405A CYCLONE
C. 16/0930Z
D. 24.9N 96.1W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

3. TROPICAL STORM DEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A DEAN
C. 16/1430Z
D. 13.2N 53.7W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 17/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0204A DEAN
C. 16/1800Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 17/12000Z.
ANOTHER G-IV MISSION.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION ON FLOSSIE FOR 15/1800Z
CANCELED BY CPHC AT 15/10000Z
JWP

TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Hurricane Time!

When these seasons finally crank up, things happen fast. We have a landfalling hurricane on the Big Island of Hawaii, a tropical feature of some sort in the Gulf, and a named storm getting stronger in the Atlantic.

Aircraft are investigating two of these.

Tomorrow's Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day:


218
NOUS42 KNHC 141330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1200,1500Z
B. NOAA2X 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0930Z
D. 24.9N 94.9W
E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. REMARKS: ORIGINALLY AN AF MISSION FOR 15/0900Z.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1800,16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/1530Z
D. 25.5N 95.6W
E. 15/1700Z TO 16/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO,
BUT BEGIN FIXING TD 04 AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 53.5W


II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURICANNE FLOSSIE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0609E FLOSSIE
C. 15/1600Z
D. 19.0N 158.9W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Flossie:


000
WTHW80 PHFO 141821
HLSHFO
HIZ023>028-142145-

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE SECTION AND
THE FLOODING IMPACTS SECTION FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 AM HST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE WILL PASS ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COUNTY OF HAWAII CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED THAT PUNALUU BEACH
PARK...SOUTH POINT...VACATIONLAND...WHITTINGTON BEACH PARK AND THE
MAUNA KEA ACCESS ROAD FROM THE 9000 FT ELEVATION HAVE BEEN CLOSED.
ALL SCHOOLS...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII-HILO AND BOTH HAWAII
COMMUNITY COLLEGE CAMPUSES...AND ALL PUBLIC PARKS ON THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.

IF YOU ARE ON THE BIG ISLAND...PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION EARLY THIS MORNING. STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO STATION FOR INFORMATION ON EVACUATIONS
AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
RECENT MEASUREMENTS FROM A BUOY LOCATED 185 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO SHOW OPEN OCEAN WAVES OF UP TO 18 FT HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
HURRICANE FLOSSIE. AS THESE WAVES APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND...SURF OF 20 TO 25 FEET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING AND DUE TO WAVE RUNUP. SUBSTANTIAL SHORELINE EROSION IS
ALSO LIKELY. ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AREAS INCLUDE PUNALUU...
VACATIONLAND AND COASTAL PROPERTIES IN THE KAPOHO BEACH AREA.

SURF ALONG NORTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL RISE TO 10
TO 15 FT TODAY...AND WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SHORELINE
EROSION. AVOID ENTERING THE WATER AND STAY AWAY FROM
COASTAL AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TO THE SOUTHERN BIG ISLAND AFTER NOON
TODAY. WINDS OF THESE INTENSITIES WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIGHT
STRUCTURES AND TREES.

HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF FLOSSIE SHIFTS NORTHWARD...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
BIG ISLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10
INCHES OR GREATER IN THE KAU DISTRICT...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE
PUNA AND SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE KAU DISTRICT. A
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE SPOT WILL BE HIGHWAY 11 NEAR MILE POST 58.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN CLOSURE OF THE
HIGHWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 1145 AM HST OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

KODAMA


Dean:


00
WTNT34 KNHC 142045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB


Links:

(Also in this blog's right hand column)

TCPOD:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC

NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

STS-118 BRV's on 5711 and 9043 USB

Chris Corley on UDXF reports Booster Recovery Vessel Freedom Star on 5711 kHz USB, moving to 9043 USB with Cape Radio (Cape Canaveral AFS) as band conditions change.

It's probably worth also keeping a watch on 10780 USB, another Cape Radio primary.

NASA Announces STS-118 Web Coverage

08.03.07

Allard Beutel
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-4769
allard.beutel@nasa.gov

Jeanne Ryba
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
jeanne.m.ryba@nasa.gov

MEDIA ADVISORY: 44-07

NASA ANNOUNCES WEB COVERAGE OF NEXT SPACE SHUTTLE MISSION

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - A prelaunch webcast, live blogs, podcasts, pictures and videos highlight NASA's Web coverage of space shuttle Endeavour's STS-118 mission to the International Space Station. NASA will provide continuous online updates at:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

A live webcast featuring STS-116 astronaut Joan Higginbotham will start the in-depth coverage of the mission at 11:30 a.m. EDT on Aug. 7.

A blog will update the countdown beginning about six hours before Endeavour is scheduled to lift off on Aug. 8 at 6:36 p.m. EDT. Originating from NASA's Kennedy Space Center, the blog is the definitive Internet source for information leading up to launch.

During the 11-day mission, Endeavour's crew of seven astronauts will add a segment to the right side of the station's backbone, or truss, deliver 5,000 pounds of supplies and conduct at least three spacewalks to install the new components and to replace one of the station's attitude control gyroscopes. Visitors to NASA's shuttle Web site can read about the crew's progress and watch the spacewalks live from the space station.

As Endeavour's flight wraps up, NASA will offer a blog detailing the spacecraft's return to Earth.


-end-

Monday, August 06, 2007

US Military Exercise In Progress - Monitor 11175 USB

Jeff Haverlah is hearing exercise EAMs on 11175 kHz USB, the US Air Force HF-GCS. I just dialed up triple-one and I'm hearing similar, plus the "standing by for traffic" procedure. Larry Van Horn posted similar to his blog a few hours ago.

Callsigns indicate likely US Strategic Command.

Friday, August 03, 2007

STS-118 Postponed to Wednesday 8/8

MEDIA ADVISORY: 43-07

NASA'S SPACE SHUTTLE MISSION POSTPONED BY 24 HOURS

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - The launch of space shuttle Endeavour on mission STS-118 has been postponed 24 hours to allow the shuttle processing team additional time to complete routine work before liftoff. The new launch is targeted for Wednesday, Aug. 8, at 6:36 p.m. EDT.

The additional day will provide time to complete the processing and allow the countdown to begin at 8 p.m. Sunday. Despite the delay, the STS-118 crew will still arrive at Kennedy Space Center, Fla., at 5 p.m. EDT Friday. NASA TV will have live coverage of the arrival. On launch day, live coverage starts at 8:30 a.m.

For NASA TV streaming video, downlink and scheduling information, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/ntv

For STS-118 crew and mission information, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

-end-

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Two Earthquakes In North Pacific, With Small Tsunami

A second large Pacific Ocean earthquake occurred in the Aleutians at 0322 UTC, magnitude 6.9, and a third near Sakhalin Island at 0238 UTC, magnitude 6.4.

The Sakhalin Island event, while comparatively small, has resulted in the Japan Meteorological Agency issuing a "Tsunami Attention" bulletin for the west coast of Hokkaido. A small tsunami of 30 centimeters was measured in Hokkaido, and more on a similar scale are possible. These are way too small to cause the kind of damage associated with Thailand a couple of years back.

The Sakhalin earthquake itself has caused at least one fatality on the island, which is off Russia.

Tsunami Warning/Advisory

Issued at 13:37 JST 02 Aug 2007

******************Headline******************
Tsunami Attension has been issued.
NORTHERN PART OF JAPAN SEA COAST OF HOKKAIDO

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Vanuatu Earthquake 1708 UTC

The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: An earthquake occurred about 45 km (30 mi) east-southeast of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu at 11:08 AM MDT, Aug 1, 2007 (Aug 02 at 4:08 AM local time in Vanuatu). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available. No reports of damage or casualties have been received at this time; however, this earthquake may have caused damage due to its location and size.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 7.2
# Date-Time Wednesday, August 1, 2007 at 17:08:57 (UTC)
= Coordinated Universal Time
# Thursday, August 2, 2007 at 4:08:57 AM
= local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 15.651°S, 167.542°E
Depth 172.7 km (107.3 miles)
Region VANUATU
Distances 45 km (30 miles) ESE of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
245 km (155 miles) NNW of PORT-VILA, Efate, Vanuatu
470 km (290 miles) NNW of Isangel, Tanna, Vanuatu
1995 km (1240 miles) NE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12 km (7.5 miles); depth +/- 23.7 km (14.7 miles)
Parameters Nst=162, Nph=162, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.47 sec, Gp= 43°,
M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source

USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2007fmba

The earthquake locations and magnitudes cited in these bulletins are very preliminary, and may disagree with the more accurate USGS locations and magnitudes computed using more extensive data sets.


No tsunami warnings have been issued at this time.

If the preliminary depth measurements hold up, this would be an extremely deep earthquake, which often means less damage than an event of this size near the surface.