Wednesday, September 26, 2007

New Web Link for AFN Short Wave Schedule

The old link for the American Forces Network HF transmitter locations, frequencies, and times is no longer working. There is a new one:

http://myafn.dodmedia.osd.mil/ShortWave.aspx

The schedule as of September 2007 is:

USB
Station Day Night

Diego Garcia 12759 4319
Guam 13362 5765
Key West 12133.5 7812.5 5446.5 (all 24/7)
Pearl Harbor 10320 6350

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Second New US Coastal CW Station Licensed

Forward from Dick Dillman, chief operator at KSM, the first new station:

A new US class 1A common carrier Morse code coast station has been licensed by the FCC!

As may remembered, I suggested earlier this year that those in the US interested in preserving 500kc for commercial operation should apply for a commercial coast station license - just as we did for KSM.

Two people made applications. One of these has been granted today (9/24).

Station KDR has been licensed to James A. Dalke in Bellevue, WA. OM Dalke is a broadcast engineer who just happens to have a 5kW MF transmitter in the garage so I suspect we will be hearing the signal of KDR before too long. Jim says he as many "interesting plans" for the station.

KDR is licensed for operation on 500kc and 482kc at 5kW.

See all information on the FCC Web site.

One other application is pending. Others have expressed interest in submitting applications.

In my view licensing stations like KDR is the best possible way to preserve 500kc for true commercial operations.

VY 73,

Richard Dillman


Coordinates given are 47-40-24.0 N, 122-10-11.0 W. Emission is 160HA1A (plain CW Morse wireless telegraphy, 160 Hz bandwidth). Antenna type is not known.

This ought to be good.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Interesting Aircraft Taskings for Gulf Cyclone 9/21

681
NOUS42 KNHC 201530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 20 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 42
A. 21/1800Z
B. NOAA2 0510A CYCLONE
C. 21/1300Z
D. 27.4N 86.8W
E. 21/1400Z TO 2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0610A CYCLONE
C. 21/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 T0 450,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 43
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0710A CYCLONE
C. 21/2200Z
D. 28.0N 87.5W
E. 21/2300Z TO 22/0430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 70
A. 22/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0810A CYCLONE
C. 22/0430Z
D. 28.5N 88.2W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 22/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Pacific Hurricane Ivo Forecast/Warning #11

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210235
TCMEP2
HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Cuban DIGTRX Numbers 9/13/07

The Cuban numbers stations, always good for a surprise, are at it again.

On September 10, Tom Sevart heard a new digital mode (for them) on 17478 kHz USB at 1600 UTC, and again on 17436 kHz USB at 1700. This is an 8-tone modulation mode with distinctive beginning and ending signals. It was quickly identified by Tom and others as Redundant Digital File Transfer (RDFT), a mode with several submodes of varying transfer speeds. It's used by hams for transferring files, usually slow scan TV (SSTV) pictures. We've written about this before.

Today, September 13, Tom and I both heard transmissions at 1700 on 17436. They were in RDFT and another digital file transfer mode called HamDRM, an amateur version of the Digital Radio Mondial broadcast standard. The program in use identified itself as DIGTRX version 3.11, a free download available on all the usual ham radio sites.

The sending station ID in the DRM transmission was RAD01. The file being transferred was called nen12.txt. Its contents are a standard V02a/M08a three-message encrypted whatever, but without the formatting into 5-figure groups. We thank Tom for sharing his decode with the Internet.

It is interesting to speculate on whether RAD01 and nenxx.txt are internal names used in the Cuban numbers operation, or just special test names. Probably ultimately futile, but interesting.

Last Humberto Advisory (#7)

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 92.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 92.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.3N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 88.6W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.9N 86.4W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 92.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN

Humberto Is A Hurricane (Advisory #4)

This thing was a depression at this time last night, and there was no time to prepare before it came in. Let's hope this is as strong as it gets.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH
OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1215 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Gabrielle Now Tropical (Advisory #4)

Air recon has found tropical characteristics in Gabrielle, and so it is now classed a tropical storm.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007

...GABRIELLE BECOMES TROPICAL...STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Thursday, September 06, 2007

R.I.P. Felix & Henriette

Final resting places:

Hydromet Drops Dissipating T.D. Henriette

What's left of Henriette is rain in AZ, NM, and TX. It missed CA where we could have used it.

For future reference, the Hydromet office's tropical advisory page is here.

000
WTPZ31 KWNH 061459
TCPEP1


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 28 FOR REMNANT OF HENRIETTE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
EP112007
800 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007

...HENRIETTE DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

AT 800 AM PDT...15Z...THE POORLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0 NORTH LATITUDE AND 109.0 WEST LONGITUDE...IN FAR NORTHERN MEXICO APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 MPH...13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

SELECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM PDT.

ARIZONA...

DOUGLAS 0.63

NEW MEXICO...

DEMING 0.25
SILVER CITY 0.22

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...31.0N...110W. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS STORM.

HEDGE
$$

NHC Drops T.D Henriette, Hydromet Picks It Up

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


NNNN

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Hurricane Henriette Advisory #22

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 050247
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE HAS EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA MADGALENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...EAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM ...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

NHC Cancels Felix/Henriette Air Recon Tasking

580
NOUS42 KNHC 041830
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT TUE 04 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-103 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/1800Z --CHANGED
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 05/1700Z
D. 29.5N 74.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON HURRICANE FELIX CANCELED BY
NHC BY 04/0915Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON HENRIETTE CANCELED AT 04/1100Z.
WVW

Hurricane Felix Forecast / Advisory #14

000
WTNT21 KNHC 032049
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 79.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 79.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion #17

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032054
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

WHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE DAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED LOWER.

HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/05. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE THE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 48-72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED


FORECASTER RHOME

Monday, September 03, 2007

Hurricane Watch Net Activates on 14325.0 USB

From HWN Web Site:

Current plans for Hurricane Felix are to activate on Monday, September, 3, 2007 at 1400 EDT/1800 UTC to begin listing reporting stations in the projected path of Hurricane Felix. The net will activate again on Tuesday, September 4, 2007 at 0800 EDT/1200 UTC for normal net operations. These time are subject to change according to current conditions and forecasts.


Continuous hurricane communications are being heard here at 2200.

Felix is Category Five (Special Advisory #10)

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Who Says Americans Don't Know Geography?


They do if they're into utility radio.

KSM RTTY Testing Again Today

From Richard Dillman of MRHS:

Once again this Saturday the KSM Transmitter Department plans to exercise the 12Mc RTTY transmitter beginning at about 2000Z and ending at about 2300Z. Press and weather will be broadcast in Baudot and FEC modes.

The Baudot transmission will be 170cps shift, 45.45 baud. The frequency is 12631.0kc.

The tubes currently in the transmitter limit power output to 2.5kW. Once these are replaced a power output of 4 to 5kW will be used. The antenna is a H over 2.

The transmitter for our 8Mc RTTY frequency is undergoing restoration by the Transmitter Department. Once this transmitter operational both 8Mc and 12Mc will be active each Saturday with press and weather information of interest to the maritime community. The 8Mc frequency is 8433.0kc. A double extended Zepp will be used on this frequency.

KSM will be active on Morse as usual on:

426
500
4350.5
6474.0
8438.3
12993.0
16914.0

K6KPH will guard 7050kc and 14050kc for signal reports, NTS traffic and general calls. Since the above frequencies are in a scanner along with the ship calling frequencies, the best procedure to use when calling K6KPH is the same as that for commercial operations: Keep sending "K6KPH" on the above frequencies (within the limits of FCC identification requirements of course). When your call is heard K6KPH will send "DE" after which you can send your call sign. Sometimes things get busy at the station so I apologize in advance if your call is not immediately answered.

VY 73,

Richard Dillman
Chief Operator, MRHS

Sea to Shining Sea (Henriette in E-Pac, Felix in Atlantic)

Felix has a good chance of taking about the same track as Dean, as a hurricane. Bad news for Belize and the Yucatan. Henriette is still tracking right up the coast, and depending on steering will either make the weather very interesting in Baja and Southern California starting Tuesday or so, or it won't. Recreational boaters in these waters definitely need to watch Henriette.

Both storms will affect Mexico. Mexican military ALE and amateur relief frequencies may light up. It's a good chance to practice your Spanish.

Henriette:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011444
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGE BUT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION AND THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AND BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS PATTERN COULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TEMPORARILY ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FORECAST BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ONCE AGAIN A GROUP OF TRACK MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOLER RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS BRINGS HENRIETTE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN THE GULF OF CORTES WHERE THE WATER IS WARM AND STRENGTHENING COULD CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED FOR THE FIRST OPTION AND KEEPS HENRIETTE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WEAKENING. THIS IN FACT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.8N 104.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.5N 105.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 107.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 114.1W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 115.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Felix:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Tropical Storm Warnings Up In Lesser Antilles (TD-6 Adv/Fcst #1)

000
WTNT21 KNHC 312045
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 58.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

TD-11E Now Henriette (Advisory #5A)

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM ...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
NNNN

Interesting Tropical WP-3 Tasking

150
NOUS42 KNHC 311430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 31 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0306A CYCLONE
C. 01/2000Z
D. 13.0N 67.5W
E. 01/2100Z TO 02/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 02/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 13.2N 69.2W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 02/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0506A CYCLONE
C. 02/0800Z
D. 13.5N 71.0W
E. 02/0930Z TO 02/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
P-3 DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

No Permanent Damage to Shuttle Endeavour

From NASA's weekly orbiter processing report:

Mission: STS-123 - 25th International Space Station Flight - Kibo
Logistics Module, Dextre Robotics System
Vehicle: Endeavour (OV-105)
Location: Orbiter Processing Facility Bay 2
Launch Date: Targeted for Feb. 14, 2008
Launch Pad: 39A
Crew: Gorie, Johnson, Linnehan, Doi, Behnken, Foreman and Reisman
Inclination/Orbit Altitude: 51.6 degrees/122 nautical miles

In Orbiter Processing Facility bay No. 2, two tiles damaged during the flight of STS-118 have been removed for inspection and testing. The orbiter structure beneath the tile impact area has been inspected, and engineers have found no evidence of heat-related damage. Additionally, three-dimensional measurements of the damage site found no appreciable change in volume resulting from heat affects.

Also during inspections, two micro-meteorite impacts were observed on the payload bay door radiators. They did not damage any of the radiator Freon coolant loops and did not reach the outer skin of the payload bay doors. These impact areas can be repaired.

Spacehab, part of the STS-118 payload, was removed from Endeavour's payload bay and returned to the Space Station Processing Facility. Validation of the orbiter's main engine pneumatics and power systems is complete. Workers have completed post-flight thermography inspection of the reinforced carbon-carbon, or RCC, on the nosecap.

Thermography inspection of the left- and right-hand wing leading edge RCC panels is under way. Preparations are being made for the forward reaction control system functional test. Workers are deservicing the hypergolic fuel system today. The orbiter's three main engines will be removed next week.