Some More Israeli Intelligence Freqs

E10 being reported on:

2743 ULX
3415 ART
5230 ULX
6270 ULX
6986 ART

Happy new year!

"Numbers" Activity Increases In Gaza Crisis

The Israeli phonetic alphabet station (E10) became much more active soon after the air strikes began in Gaza. Also more time slots have messages, and new messages come out more frequently.

E10 can start on the hour, half-hour, or sometimes even 15 minutes after the hour. Most schedules come between 1800 and 2300 UTC.

Recently logged E10 frequencies:

3150 PCD
3270 ULX
4270 PCD + 2 abnormal PCD strings
4560 YHF
4880 ULX
5435 ART
6840 EZI + 1 abnormal EZI string

In addition, 4270 and 4880 are frequently jammed.

4XZ, the Israeli Navy CW station that broadcasts weather and coded "numbers" like traffic is being heard on 2680 and 4331 around 1700 UTC.

Mini "Night of Nights" on New Year's Eve

For the last several years, the Maritime Radio Historical Society amateur radio station K6KPH has participated in the annual ARRL Straight Key Night. This is an informal CW activity that runs from New Year's Eve into New Year's Day (US time). The only rule is that participants use a plain simple old straight telegraph key like the one they probably used to learn code. There are no scores or awards, but you can nominate good fists you hear on the air for honorable mentions. It's harder than it sounds!

For 2008-2009, the MRHS activity has been expanded into what is almost a mini Night of Nights (the Morse Code observance in July where several old stations send CW for around 6 hours). KSM (the MRHS commercial CW station at the KPH site) will be active on CW, RTTY, and Sitor-B (FEC mode). KLB, a ShipCom commercial station in Washington state, will also participate.

This activity gives a good chance to hear mediumwave transmissions under optimal winter-night conditions. In general, propagation should be quite a bit different from July.

All operation commences with the start of Straight Key Night, at 0000 UTC 1 January 2009 (after the Leap Second!). Here are the frequencies(kHz):

KLB
CW: 488 500

K6KPH QSX for CW calls from hams
3550
7050 (Vintage RCA transmitter)
14050
Don't forget that straight key.

KSM
CW: 426 500
4350.5 (Vintage RCA tx)
6474.0 (ditto) 8438.3
12993 (vintage Press Wireless tx)
16914

Teleprinting: 8433 12631
Baudot is 170/45
Sitor is 170/100 mode B (FEC)

K6KPH/KSM QSL to
Ms. Denice Stoops
QSL Mistress, MRHS
PO Box 381
Bolinas, California 94926
USA

MRHS mailing list:
Radiomarine-subscribe at yahoogroups.com

Holiday Greetings from Utility World

A discussion on UDXF gave me the idea for this year's card. It's a spectrogram picture made by DIGTRX 3.11. This is a freeware RDFT file transfer program used on occasion by Cuban Intelligence for the "numbers."

US Congress Investigates "Dysfunctional" FCC

We were right all along. Or at least that's the conclusion of a Congressional investigating committee, which confirms serious malfeasance at the US Federal Communications Commission.

Their new majority report paints a picture of an opaque FCC, with a culture of fear and a tendency to suppress data conflicting with politically motivated decisions. Gee, this sounds quite a bit like many other parts of the Bush administration, does it not?

Here are some relevant parts of a news report posted to the ARRL web site:

On Tuesday, December 9, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce -- the congressional committee that oversees the Federal Communications Commission -- released its majority staff report "on the bipartisan investigation of the FCC's regulatory processes and management practices." The report -- Deception and Distrust: The Federal Communications Commission under Chairman Kevin J. Martin -- stated that the investigation was prompted "by allegations to the effect that [FCC] Chairman Kevin J. Martin has abused FCC procedures by manipulating or suppressing reports, data and information."

...

Representative John D. Dingell (D-MI), Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce echoed Stupak's concerns: "Any of these findings, individually, are cause for concern. Together, the findings suggest that, in recent years, the FCC has operated in a dysfunctional manner and Commission business has suffered as a result. It is my hope that the new FCC Chairman will find this report instructive and that it will prove useful in helping the Commission avoid making the same mistakes."

But the best parts concern the FCC's deliberate ignoring of data that conflicted with its allegedly prejudiced decision on Broadband over Power Lines (BPL):

Concerning BPL, the report alleges that FCC officials "ignored complaints of radio frequency interference caused by BPL high-speed Internet technology, delayed an enforcement investigation for two years and improperly withheld engineering data regarding BPL from the public."

The report found that in October 2004, as then-Chairman Michael Powell issued his final rule "defining BPL access and setting technical and administrative requirements to protect licensed radio operators from harmful interference," the FCC "withheld from the public certain engineering reports on which it relied in promulgating the rule" from the final rule and order.

Even though the BPL rules were adopted during Powell's tenure, the report found that "it was under Chairman Martin that the Enforcement Bureau and the General Counsel continued to withhold the redacted engineering reports and insisted on doing so in the course of the ensuing litigation [with the ARRL]."

Farther down, Martin is accused of lying to Congress:

The report also showed instances of where Chairman Martin "manipulated, withheld or suppressed data, reports and information," and said Martin's "manipulation [of another report] may have damaged the credibility of the Commission, and certainly undermined the integrity of the staff. Moreover, it was done with the purpose of affecting the congressional decision-making, in that it was issued as a report to Congress."

It is certainly everyone's hope that a new broom in Washington can sweep away some of these wannabe communication lobbyists who have so damaged the FCC.

Full story is at ARRL.org.

Solar CME May Affect HF Propagation Monday

Posted Saturday December 13 2008 at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf72.htm :

On Friday December 12, 2008 fleeting sunspot group #11009 produced a C class solar flare before setting around the west limb of the Sun. This is the first C class solar flare since April 03, 2008.

Also a filament eruption occurred in the northwest quadrant of the Sun beginning at approximately 0615 UTC. This produced a weak partially geo-effective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) that "may" impact Earth's geomagnetic field in a minor way (Kp 3) on or about Monday December 15, 2008.

USCG Cutters Getting New HF ALE Radios

U.S. Coast Guard chooses Thales HF-ALE radios for surface ships

CLARKSBURG, Md., 21 Nov. 2008. U.S. Coast Guard leaders needed medium-powered high-frequency automated link establishment (HF-ALE) radios for Coast Guard cutter surface ships to be acquired over the next five to seven years. They found their solution from Thales Communications Inc. in Clarksburg, Md.

Thales's systems are going aboard the Coast Guard's fleet of 75 cutters of varying classes, including high- and medium-endurance cutters and the polar icebreaker fleet.

More here

IARU Region 1 Passes New 40 Meter Bandplan

The International Amateur Radio Union (IARU) concluded its meeting in November with an agreement on a new voluntary band plan for the expanded 40 meter amateur band.

IARU regions coincide with those of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Region 1 is Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and all of Russia east to its Bering Strait border with (gasp) the United States. Region 2 is North and South America, plus Greenland. Region 3 is Asia (minus Asiatic Russia), the Central and South Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand. Antarctica and the Arctic are split up accordingly, as the lines run clear to the poles.

On March 29, 2009, an ITU agreement will kick in, expanding 40 meters in Region 1 from 7000-7100 kHz to 7000-7200. AM broadcasters in Region 1 will no longer be coordinated in this part of the "41 meter band," though it is not known whether all will actually move anytime soon. Furthermore, broadcasters in Region 3 will not have to move unless interference from legally operating amateurs becomes a problem.

The major change for hams is to move most voice operation above 7100 kHz, somewhat more in harmony with the United States rules. Night time 40 meter users in the US will hopefully not be required as often to work crossband or cross-mode to contact voice DX stations. However many countries don't have required band segments by mode, and band plans are voluntary in such cases.

Here's the band plan:

7.000-7.025 CW, contest preferred (existing prime DX-chasing segment worldwide)
7.025-7.040 CW QRP, Center of Activity 7030
7.040-7.047 Narrow band digital (PSK31, etc)
7.047-7.050 Narrow band digital, auto allowed
7.050-7.053 All digital, auto allowed
7.053-7.060 All digital
7.060-7.100 All modes, 7070 digital voice, 7090 SSB QRP
7.100-7.130 All modes, Region 1 Center of Activity 7110
7.130-7.200 All modes, SSB contest preferred, SSTV 7165
7.175-7.200 All modes, priority for intercontinental

Shuttle Landing On for EDW ~30/2125 UTC

Bad weather forecasts next two days at KSC caused a decision to go with the first Edwards AFB landing option. The Los Angeles City Fire Department is warning people to expect the distinctive sonic booms, since there hasn't been a landing on this track right over L.A. in years:

Please anticipate twin 'sonic booms' across SoCal at 1:20-1:25 PM today due to Space Shuttle Endeavour landing at Edwards AFB. -Brian Humphrey [LAFD Public Service Office] ###

Space Shuttle Landing Tomorrow (Sunday)

From NASA:

Final Full Day in Space for STS-126,
Landing Set for Sunday

Saturday, November 29, 2008 2:52 PM
The STS-126 crew spent its final full day in space Saturday. The crew tested space shuttle Endeavour's flight control surfaces and reaction control system thrusters in preparation for a Sunday landing. The two landing opportunities at Kennedy Space Center are for 12:19 p.m. and 1:54 p.m. EST. However, an unfavorable weather forecast in Florida called for two more landing opportunities at Edwards Air Force Base in California at 4:25 p.m. and 6 p.m.

Southern CA note: The first EDW landing opportunity, which would be at 1:25 PST, has a ground track directly over Los Angeles, ensuring nice big sonic booms. The second opportunity tracks more to the north, over Santa Barbara.

Alleged HomePlug Document Suggests Awareness of Interference Issue

Publically, the two standardizing industry associations for the HomePlug and DS2 powerline communication standards act as if there's no problem with RF emissions from devices which are basically wideband transmitters putting appreciable HF energy into AC power lines, which unintentionally serve as very efficient transmitting antennas.

A document alleged to be an internal "executive seminar" at the HomePlug Alliance has been posted to the files section of UKQRM. If this is real, it strongly suggests that someone working for the HomePlug Alliance is completely aware that a problem exists. Members of UKQRM can go to that group's files section and download this document.

What we have here is something at least resembling an internal presentation of PowerPoint-like slides stored as a .PDF file. Its heading on each slide is "Homeplug Executive Seminar." It shows measurements proving that their devices do not meet European electromagnetic compatibility standards, and had to gain the CE mark by exploiting loopholes. Subsequent slides claim that it's all just a problem with the standard test setup, which is simply unfair to powerline devices, that's all.

If this means that the whole idea of sending data through active power lines is so stupid that excessive RF power must be used to make it work even a little, I agree.

From page 4:

Safety, immunity and harmonics are correct but almost all PLC devices pass over the CISPR 22 class A, B limits so failed the test and we could not generate (directly) the DoC (Declaration of Conformity) needed for Europe

This is accompanied by a chart which looks like a dBuV over frequency run. Indeed, it shows 85 dBuV all the way across HF under their test parameters, except for sharp notches in some (NOT ALL) ham radio bands. This is indeed well in violation of EMC standards.

What do you do if you fail the test? Why claim that the standard is too old fashioned, of course, and rig up your own test so your product passes, despite a known EMC problem. Continuing, on page 5:

Several studies have been done on this current issue
• Some experts have demonstrated that the current interface used for the test was not accurate for the powerline and have proposed their own schematics (gaining up to 10 dB so passing class A and B)

Few competent bodies have proposed their own method
• They created their own measurement method and built for the manufacturer, the TCF (Technical Construction File: this is the second official way to gain the CE mark, specially when a unit do not follow at 100 % the harmonized standards)
• So they demonstrated with their method that the unit will not harm the “network”
• With this TCF, the CE mark could be affixed to the product so the PLC device could be sold in Europe

The "Final Solution?" Why, pressure international bodies to change the law, of course. Page 6:

A sub group of the CISPR was created to work on this issue
• The interface used to test the CISPR 22 test was developped a long time ago and is not fair for a measurement on the power line
• CISPR SC I PLT TG is working to find a test method that will properly test power line communications ports.

And, if that doesn't work, of course maybe if you lobby hard enough, the ITU will simply clear out a huge swath of HF for you. Page 8:

As of today the best case for this new CISPR I 89
standard is 2009
ITU-R: We have also investigated the possibility to
obtain a dedicated band for the PLC, it will take if
accepted around 10 to 15 years…
During this interim period the TCF will be always
the best compromise but could be subject to
discussion…

In other news, BPL is not dead. IBM announced that it seeks to build an extensive system to bring broadband to rural areas. In other words, if you try to escape the cities, you will find that HF has been jammed in the country too.

I'm glad I'm not a conspiratologist. The idea of a worldwide total blockage of HF would have me going on Art Bell (or his replacement) by now.

Special Maritime Radio Historical Society Event 11/21-22

From MRHS:

On 21/22 November the MRHS will activate KPH and K6KPH from the original trans-Pacific receive site of the American Marconi Co in Marshall, CA. This was also the receive site for KPH before WWII. KPH will be active on 426kc, 500kc and on 4Mc and/or 6Mc HF (exact frequencies to be announced). K6KPH will be on 3550kc and 7050kc. Transmitters in Bolinas will be keyed remotely from the Marshall site. KPH was closed at the beginning of WWII so this activation will recall the days before Pearl Harbor.

As a special treat SS JEREMIAH O'BRIEN/KXCH (Denice Stoops at the key) and SS RED OAK VICTORY/KYVM (Steve Hawes at the key) will attempt to be on the air on MF.

If you have the ability to relay traffic to the National Traffic System we'd love to hear from you if you're within range of K6KPH during the day on 3.5Mc or 7Mc. We will be soliciting traffic from those attending this event and may have a lot on the hook. So if you can be QRV for us please let me know.

STS-126 NASA Video on Media Channel

Nov. 12, 2008

Allard Beutel
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
allard.beutel@nasa.gov

Katherine Trinidad
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1100
katherine.trinidad@nasa.gov

MEDIA ADVISORY: M08-232

NASA TV TO AIR CLEAN FEED OF ENDEAVOUR'S STS-126 COUNTDOWN

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA Television will provide a continuous clean video feed on its Media Channel of space shuttle Endeavour in the hours before its 7:55 p.m. EST liftoff on Nov. 14.

Beginning at 2:30 p.m., video will show one stationary wide shot of Endeavour on Launch Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The feed will include live audio of communications between launch controllers and the shuttle but not the commentary airing on NASA TV's Public Channel. NASA TV commentary will air on both channels beginning approximately nine minutes before the scheduled launch time at the conclusion of what is known as the T minus 9 minute hold in the launch countdown.

During the shuttle's 15-day STS-126 mission to the International Space Station, the crew will deliver supplies and equipment necessary to double the station crew size from three to six members and conduct four spacewalks.

For NASA TV's downlink coordinates, streaming video and scheduling information, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/ntv

For information about Endeavour's STS-126 mission and crew, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle


-end-

NASA Announces Friday Launch Coverage

MEDIA ADVISORY: M08-228

NASA ANNOUNCES SPACE SHUTTLE PRELAUNCH AND MISSION WEB COVERAGE

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - A prelaunch webcast, live blogs, podcasts, pictures and videos will highlight NASA's Web coverage of space shuttle Endeavour's STS-126 mission to the International Space Station. Endeavour is scheduled to lift off Friday, Nov. 14, at 7:55 p.m. EST. NASA will provide continuous online updates at:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

A webcast Nov. 13 at 11:30 a.m. will start the in-depth online coverage of the mission. Host Damon Talley of NASA's Digital Learning Network will preview the mission, and Endeavour Flow Director Ken Tenbusch will take viewers behind the scenes at America's spaceport as he explains the high-stakes work of preparing a shuttle for a mission in space.

A blog will provide launch countdown updates beginning at 2:30 p.m. on Nov. 14. Originating from NASA's Kennedy Space Center, the blog is the definitive Internet source for information leading up to launch.

During Endeavour's 15-day mission, the shuttle's seven crew members will deliver supplies and equipment necessary to double the station crew size from three to six members and will make four spacewalks to service the station's two Solar Alpha Rotary Joints, which allow its solar arrays to track the sun.

Visitors to NASA's shuttle Web site can read about the crew's progress and watch the spacewalks live. As Endeavour's flight wraps up, NASA will offer a blog detailing the spacecraft's return to Earth.

-end-



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Echostar (DISH Network) Specifies HomePlug PLT Adapters

We may have the first major deployment of power line based Ethernet in the US. Echostar, which most people know as DISH Network, is now recommending that users install PLT adapters in their homes if their router is in a different room than the satellite receiver.

These adapters use the HomePlug standard, better for us than the DS2 than is causing all the trouble in the UK, but not always by much.

DISH receivers use Ethernet to communicate with the network for ordering pay per view, etc, if there is no landline telephone connection available. Most users already have these receivers connected to landlines, so hopefully there will not be a wide deployment.

If HF interference is traced to one of these systems, the options available to remedy the situation are as follows:

Do nothing. Maybe the FCC will help, but probably not. At this point you will have to give up utility DXing.

Ask the users to:

Move the router nearer the satellite receiver;
Run network cabling;
Run a long landline cord to the receiver.

Obviously, this last one is probably the simplest, unless the customer only has a cell phone and a high speed Internet connection.

As tecnology evolves, and everyone comes up with more uses for Ethernet than communicating with laptops via Wi-Fi, home PLT adapters will become standard items seen all over. Unless something changes, at this point the HF utility hobby will be over.

Sorry, but it's that simple, unless something happens to change this sad situation. I'm out of ideas. ARRL won't help and I don't see the necessary unity in the USA.

I hope this is too gloomy.

Air Recon Taskings for 11/8-9

Boldface mine - note altitude of NOAA 49 mission!!!!!
--------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 07 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE PALOMA
FLIGHT ONE:(ADDED) NOAA 49 WILL FLY A SURVEILLANCE
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 08/0200Z
AND OPERATING BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO: NOAA 43 WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 08/1400Z AND
OPERATING AT 12,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 08/1800,09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0717A PALOMA
C. 08/1415Z
D. 20.3N 80.0W
E. 08/1700Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0817A PALOMA
C. 09/0215Z
D. 21.2N 78.84W
E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Paloma Advisory #10

Note the use of ham radio observations in this advisory:

-------

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA LASHING GRAND CAYMAN WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... ...NOW HEADING TOWARD LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN END OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC SATURDAY MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH... 130 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AMATEUR/HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON GRAND CAYMAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...19.1 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Editorial: UK Ofcom Screws the Pooch On PLT!

This letter from the UK Office of Communications, as reprinted on the UKQRM mailing list, shows once again that the USA has no monopoly on corporate butt-saving by government regulatory agencies. This masterpiece, in fact, surpasses even the most incredible stuff churned out by our FCC, and that is no small achievement.

Whilst there is evidence that some PLT apparatus fails to meet the ETSI Harmonised Standard EN 55022, there insufficient evidence [sic] that the emissions generated are causing harmful interference, more generally, to consumers.

The actual number of complaints received by Ofcom attributed to power line telecommunications equipment remains extremely low in comparison to the number of products in use. In September 2008, Ofcom received 6 interference reports from radio enthusiasts, and this was preceded by 15 in August; prior to this, there were around 20 others. I understand that all interference cases have either been or are being resolved.

We have considered your comments regarding the Comtrend/BT product, and generic PLT equipment; and references to provisions that allow for enforcement action to be taken.

Ofcom do not consider that the current situation justifies taking enforcement action to remove PLT apparatus from the market. In making this decision, Ofcom have considered our statutory duties and functions included in the Communications Act 2003 and EMC Regulations 2006.

For enforcement action to remove PLT equipment to be considered proportionate, Ofcom would need to establish that the apparatus does not meet the EMC essential requirements and generates harmful interference.

At this time we consider a proportionate response to be, to deal with the complaints of interference received on as and when they arise on a case-by-case basis.

We do, of course, reserve the right to adapt our enforcement policy to meet with any change in the circumstances, for example, where we observe a significant increase in the number of interference cases received (where PLT emissions are proven to be excessive); or, of course, due to a change in the type of spectrum user being affected by the interference (a good example would be a service concerned with national safety and security). Naturally, we would need to consult with BERR regarding any change in our enforcement approach.
Regards

Clive

:: Clive Corrie
Investigation Policy Manager
Direct Dial: +44 (0) 121 423 5205
Mobile: +44 (0) 7711 239703
clive.corrie@ofcom.org.uk

:: Ofcom
74 Ridgacre Lane
Birmingham
B32 1EN
www.ofcom.org.uk

By this logic, I guess a company flooding the market with baby formula known by regulators to contain poison would be within the law if only 40 or so families complained when their babies died.

Amazing, this deregulation Thang.................

STS-126 Launch Is On For November 14

RELEASE: 08-279

NASA GIVES "GO" FOR SPACE SHUTTLE LAUNCH ON NOV. 14

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- NASA managers completed a review Thursday of space shuttle Endeavour's readiness for flight and selected the official launch date for the STS-126 mission. Commander Chris Ferguson and his six crewmates are scheduled to lift off to the International Space Station at 7:55 p.m. EST on Nov. 14.

Endeavour's STS-126 flight will feature important repair work to the station and prepare it for housing six crew members during long-duration missions. The primary focus of the 15-day flight and its four planned spacewalks is to service the station's two Solar Alpha Rotary Joints, which allow its solar arrays to track the sun. Endeavour will carry about 32,000 pounds to orbit, including supplies and equipment necessary to double the crew size from three to six members in spring 2009. The new station cargo includes additional sleeping quarters, a second toilet and a resistance exercise device. ..

Endeavour's launch date was announced after the conclusion of Thursday's Flight Readiness Review. During the meeting, top NASA and contractor managers assessed the risks associated with the mission and determined the shuttle's equipment, support systems and procedures are ready for flight.

Ferguson will be joined on STS-126 by Pilot Eric Boe and Mission Specialists Donald Pettit, Steve Bowen, Heidemarie Stefanyshyn-Piper, Shane Kimbrough and Sandra Magnus. Magnus will replace space station crew member Greg Chamitoff, who has been aboard the station for more than five months. She will return to Earth during the next shuttle mission, STS-119, targeted to launch in February 2009.

For more information about the upcoming shuttle flights, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle


-end-

Air Recon Taskings for 11/5-8

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST WED 05 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-158

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0317A CYCLONE
C. 06/1315Z
D. 15.5N 82.3W
E. 06/1700Z TO 06/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0417A CYCLONE
C. 07/0130Z
D. 16.5N 82.3W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP


------------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST THU 06 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PALOMA
FLIGHT ONE:(ADDED) NOAA 43 WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/0200Z AND
OPERATING AT 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO:(ADDED) NOAA 49 WILL ALSO FLY A RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/0200Z AND
OPERATING BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE: NOAA 43 WILL FLY ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/1400Z AND OPERATING
AT 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0517A PALOMA
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.8N 82.83W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0617A PALOMA
C. 08/0245Z
D. 18.8N 82.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
P-3 AND G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 08/1400Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Paloma Intermediate Advisory #6A

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070543
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...PALOMA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 100 AM EST POSITION...17.5 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

British Telecom to Continue Specifying Spectrum Polluting Equipment

In a move that surprised everyone with any knowledge of the current situation, British Telecom has renewed its contract with Comtrend to buy its DS2-based PowerGrid 902 home networking adapters for another year.

This is despite full knowledge that the normal on-spec operation of the DS2 chipset continuously transmits a strong signal across most of HF, except for an audible reduction in known international amateur bands. Utility and international broadcasting DXing (including DRM) cannot co-exist with this technology, and everyone knows it.

It is obvious that BT intends to deploy this equipment in millions of homes throughout the UK, while solving the few interference complaints on a case by case basis. Note that this solution requires that the users of the home video system will approve installation of a hard-wired network. If they don't, the complainer will need a new hobby. Too bad about all that money they spent on receivers and equipment. The only recourse left will be a long, expensive, and unpredictable test case in the courts, against extremely well funded and connected corporate interests.

To show how well this approach is working, note the case of longtime Utility Logs contributor "Mike" in West Sussex. He is on something like his third round of Ofcom complaints and technician visits by Ofcom and BT to his neighbors. Every time one is resolved, a new one starts up within a matter of weeks.

It should now be completely obvious that public access to short wave radio is now considered expendable by most of the world's governing bodies. Maybe someone will try to change this, and maybe they won't.

Here's the announcement.

Good YouTube Video on VOA Delano

This is a 10-minute video that tells the history of the place, with lots of pictures of truly awesome antennas and transmitters. There's also interesting footage of political figures as diverse as Cesar Chavez ("Delano Grape Strike") and Ronald Reagan (Radio Free Europe). It tells the story of short wave broadcasting in the post-WWII United States, and why we would be crazy to get rid of it, as we seem determined to do.

Directing style is about as old-skool as you can get, looking like an old newsreel, but this works with the subject matter. The video is available as a nice clear MP4 or the smaller YouTube flv type of file.

The Delano site has somehow miraculously survived the US Government's determination to blow up, chop down, and level all things VOA SWBC inside the CONUS. Delano carried RFE and Radio Marti, and it didn't close until about a year ago. My understanding is that the monumental world-class antenna farm is still extant, for now anyway.

A good case is made that Internet, with its government-controlled filters and firewalls, cannot replace international broadcasting. This is, of course, true. I'm pessimistic in the short term, since the Cold War paradigm of huge, government-funded, world-reaching broadcasters is undoubtedly dead forever, even if the Cold War may not be. In the long term, however, I'm optimistic that short wave will eventually come back in a newer, more relevant paradigm.

Of course, this all depends on whether powerline communications technology destroys SWBC listening in populated areas, as it surely will in its current implementation. Even if this is only a phase, once the public has been driven completely away, it won't be inclined to come back any time soon.

It appears that now is the time to come to the defense of short wave broadcasting.

The video is here.

UK OfCom Official Statement on PLC

Admits there is a problem, though in a fairly dismissive manner. Doesn't take into account that political apathy guarantees that less than 1% of people with a problem, if that, will ever complain formally to authorities. Notes that EMC rules will continue to be enforced in the UK:

http://www.ofcom.org.uk/radiocomms/ifi/enforcement/plt/

Power Line Telecommunications (PLT)

Power line telecommunications (PLT) is a technology that can carry data on a conventional electrical power system using a radio frequency carrier signal.

PLT equipment can be used to interconnect computers with other devices in the home. It is not considered radio equipment for the purposes of equipment regulation.

As with all electrical and electronic products sold in the UK, PLT equipment is required to meet the relevant regulations before it can be placed on the market. In particular, it must comply with the Electromagnetic Compatibility Regulations 2006 (the EMC Regulations) which are based on a European Directive.

The person who places products on the market (usually the manufacturer or the importer) must ensure that the products comply and apply the ‘CE’ mark.

The UK government department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) is responsible for overseeing the EMC Regulations. Enforcement powers are delegated to local Trading Standards offices and to Ofcom where there is a radio spectrum protection or management issue.

Ofcom estimates there are around 500,000 pieces of PLT equipment in use in the UK. We have received around 40 individual complaints of interference attributed to PLT equipment. All of these complaints are in the process of being investigated or have been successfully resolved.

It is often the case that electrical equipment that is used in the home has to comply with the EMC regulations. Some of this equipment has the capacity to cause interference to other radiocommunications equipment in certain circumstances; this can be due to the manner in which it is installed or operated.

Ofcom can provide advice and assistance to those who complain of interference with radiocommunications equipment. Any individuals who wish to report specific cases of interference that may be caused by PLT apparatus, or any other source, should contact Ofcom’s Advisory Team on 0300 123 3333 for further assistance.

We continue to liaise with BERR and other interested stakeholders in respect of PLT interference and will provide further updates on any significant developments.

Cycle 24 Finally Underway

Another obvious Cycle 24 sunspot group has been observed for the past several days. While daily fluxes remain about as low as they ever get, there is finally repeated evidence that the new cycle is underway after a long delay.

Russian Antarctic Comm Station Burns

The Russian "Progress" research station in Antarctica has experienced a fatal fire in one of its buildings. Word of this fire was slow in arriving, because all of the radio gear was destroyed. Routine HF communication from this station has been interrupted.

From RIA Novosti:

Russia Antarctic research station fire kills one, injures two

MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) - A two-story building, part of Russia's Progress station in Antarctica, caught fire killing one construction worker and seriously injuring two others, the expedition's head said on Thursday.

Valery Lukin said the fire broke out on Sunday on the station, where 29 people are based, completely destroying the radio equipment, which made it impossible to contact Russian officials about the incident until Thursday.

...

The Progress research station was opened in 1989 and is located in the Larsemann Hills in East Antarctica. The station is around 1.5 kilometers from China's Zhong Shan research station, where the injured Russians are receiving medical treatment.

Air Recon Taskings for October 15-16

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 15 OCTOBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z OCTOBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-137

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE OMAR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 16/1500Z, 2100Z
B. AFXXX 0615A OMAR
C. 16/1300Z
D. 20.1N 62.8W
E. 16/1430Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT TWO FROM TCPOD 08-136 WAS CHANGED
TO TAKE OFF 3 HOURS EARLIER (16/0100Z) AND GET FIXES
AT 16/0300,0600,0900 AND 1200Z. ALL TASKING ON TD 16
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1005Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


000
NOUS42 KNHC 141500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 14 OCTOBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCTOBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION-16
FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 15/1800Z A. 16/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 14/1400Z C. 16/0200Z
D. 16.5N 84.5W D. 16.6N 85.5W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z E. 16/0500Z- 1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
UNTIL NO LONGER A THREAT.

3. TROPICAL STORM OMAR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 15/1800Z,16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0315A OMAR
C. 15/1600Z
D. 16.2N 66.5W
E. 15/1700Z TO 16/0000Z
F. SCF TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 16/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0415A OMAR
C. 16/0400Z
D. 17.9N 64.8W
E. 16/0500Z TO 16/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
4. SUCCEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
PROBABLY THROUGH 17/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Hurricane Omar Advisory #9

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151449
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO LASH ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION... OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N...67.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

RSGB Letter to UK Authorities Re:PLC

The Radio Society of Great Britain has sent a letter to the British Ofcom regarding the Society's perception of a weak response on the dire matter of Power Line Communications.

While RSGB has expressed considerable concern over strong HF interference caused by the wide deployment of home Ethernet power line adapters, Ofcom has spent two years making vague excuses based on a legal issue regarding the European Union.

As anyone who has been following the situation knows, politicians worldwide have been reluctant to rule decisively in PLC matters. Generally, they have preferred to see what the marketplace does, rather than be perceived as against "new technology." This has led to the approval by Germany of home computer networking gear that is clearly in violation of ITU regulations regarding access to spectrum. Further, these units do not generally meet their claimed specs as submitted for CE certification. These specs come from a self-test in a best-case situation which is unlikely to be replicated in the real world.

Here is a portion of the RSGB letter as published on the Society web site:

The RSGB has recently received a reply from Ofcom in response to a PLT complaint made almost two years ago. The Society has in turn expressed its’ dismay at the contents of this letter and has responded accordingly with a letter from the President. The following edited extract will hopefully show that the Society is not about to roll over and accept what amounts to “shoddy service” from the regulator -

“The Radio Society of Great Britain understands that as the product in question was declared compliant in Germany, Ofcom extended the usual courtesy of asking BNetzA to investigate as the home authority in the first instance. You say that BNetzA has investigated but decided not to take enforcement action but you have given no reasons. The implication is that you will not be taking any further action. However as the product is available from UK outlets we do request that you continue to investigate our complaint of non-compliance. You will know that if your investigations confirm the non-compliance, the fact that the German authorities have chosen not to take enforcement action is not a bar to the UK doing so under the principle of national subsidiarity. The integrity of New Approach Directives is in fact dependent on Member States acting where non-compliance is found. The procedure under Article 10 of the EMC Directive or Article 9 of the RTTE Directive provides the method by which Member States must notify the Commission of such independent action.

The Society submitted a detailed complaint case nearly two years ago and is still awaiting positive action by the UK regulatory authorities. You will appreciate that there is considerable frustration among HF radio users about this matter, many of whom are members of the RSGB. This delay, attributed to restructuring, is frankly deplorable, unprofessional and certainly does not reflect well on the neutrality of the administration or the stated Statutory Duty of “Ensuring the optimal use of the electro-magnetic spectrum”. We believe the recent increase in reported incidents of interference received from licensed radio amateurs and short-wave broadcast listeners alike and attributed to units from various manufacturers represents only a small percentage of those suffering with this problem, with the majority not yet aware of what is causing the harmful interference to their reception.
It is understood a number of sufferers have already written to their MPs and MEPs in respect to this problem and no doubt these letters will reach your desk in due course. In the meantime we look forward to hearing of the results of your investigations as referred to above and the pursuance of the “enforcement policy in line with stakeholders needs””.

Air Recon Taskings for September 29-30

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271400 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 27 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-119 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1.TROPICAL STORM KYLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70.....TEAL CALL SIGN CORRECTED
A. 28/1800Z, 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1811A KYLE
C. 28/1330Z
D. 41.0N 68.4W
E. 28/1730Z TO 29/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2.OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Kyle Is Now A Hurricane

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM... SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Cycle 24 Spots: Can It Be?

A small sunspot group has appeared with a magnetic polarity suggesting the beginning (again) of solar cycle 24. Maybe this time it's for real. For what it's worth, this group actually has a number (11001), which the previous faint spot did not.

Definitive statements always wait on moving averages that haven't happened yet, but we do know that the end of cycle 23 had a double minimum, making 24 very, very late. Before this, we had gone at least a month with no observable sunspots at all.

As we know, many observers are predicting a low peak, followed by a pause in solar activity resembling the Dalton Minimum observed from 1790 to 1830. These minimums tend to appear at the same time as cold weather spells aka "little ice ages."

While a "little ice age" in the 21st century is a very interesting hypothesis, there are other variables influencing climate. I can't yet share the euphoria of many Internet writers that we can now cancel global warming. We will just have to wait for the data on this one too.

I hope that, this time, the solar activity really is on the way up. HF has become quite boring here in The Land That Shortwave Forgot.


More

Photo credit: SOHO/MDI

Another One Bites The Dust: RN Ends NA Beams

We all know that if short wave broadcasters keep cutting their services to North America, that the audience will decline, and then they can eliminate them altogether because, after all, the audience has declined.

Self fulfilling prophecy.

Radio Netherlands has of course been busily strangling its world band services ever since Tom Meijer got canned for being the wrong demographic. First, it assumed we, as rich Americans, already had satellite dishes. Now, apparently, it assumes we all want to settle for the lousy "reception" of internet streams.

Meanwhile, is it just me, or has RNW become boring as hell anyway, the same way BBCWS got when it cut all the good stuff?

So it goes. Kiss RN goodbye:

RNW to end shortwave broadcasts to North America

Radio Netherlands Worldwide’s English broadcasts are available in North America in an increasing variety of different ways.

More and more partner stations are taking our programming (a growing number of NPR stations in the US and CBC in Canada) and there are now a variety of satellite options (including Sirius satellite radio).

The programmes are also available live, on-demand and via podcast.

Radio Netherlands now feels that the number of alternatives for listeners in North America is such that we have decided to end our shortwave broadcasts to the region. This will take effect from the start of our winter season on 26 October 2008.

The decision has been backed up by a recent survey which showed a decline in the number of listeners using shortwave in North America.

For full details please go to this page on our main website. You may also leave your comments at the bottom of that page.

Source: Media Network

9/14 COTHEN and USACE Logs

Propagation conditions have tanked here in The Land That Shortwave Forgot. This will have to be the last log for a while:

5327.5 WUK437-US Army Corps Of Engineers, CA, ALE sounding, also on 6020 and 6785, at 2052.

7527.0 LNT raised J31 in ALE, then USB voice at 2149.

8912.0 CRB raised D31 in ALE, then secure PARKHILL comm in USB, at 2120.
8912.0 LNT raised K15 in ALE, link quality analyses at 2124.
8912.0 CNT raised D31 in ALE, then clear and secure USB voice, at 2137 and 2142.

11494.0 USDAEOC2-US Dept of Agriculture Alternate Emergency Operations Center, MD, ALE sounding at 2306. Station is not in the COTHEN net, but this frequency is common to both.


COTHEN callsigns heard: 501, 716, A39, CNT, CRB, D31, D45, J01, J09, K15, LNT, T16
Freqs: 7527.0, 8912.0, 10242.0, 11494.0, 13907.0, 15867.0, 18594.0

501 = Coast Guard 1501, HC-130H, E-City
716 = Coast Guard 1716, HC-130H, Sacramento, CA
A39 = US Customs & Border Protection AB139, reg. #N139HS
CNT = CBP Central Regional Communications Node
CRB = CBP Caribbean Regional Communications Node
D31, D45 = CBP P-3 patrol a/c
J01 = Coast Guard 6001, MH-60J helo, E-City
J09 = Coast Guard 6009, MH-60J helo, E-City
K15 = USCG rescue helo, probably Coast Guard Rescue 6515
LNT = Camslant Chesapeake
T16 = CBP Piper PA-42-720R, reg. #N9116Q, FL

Hurricane Ike Advisory #50A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131759
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM... SOUTH OF TYLER TEXAS...AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IKE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Ike Advisory #50

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131441
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...AND ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB...28.60 INCHES...WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Late Night 9/13 SoCal ALE, Mostly Ike

4490.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 3), snd, 0341, 0441, 0541

5135.0 0401MT (US SECURE Net) snd, 0428

5378.0 FC4FEM (FEMA Region 4, GA) calling/LQA AL4FEM (Possibly Alabama), 0442

5378.0 FC4FEM calling/LQA MS4FEM (Possibly Mississippi), 0514

5711.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 4), snd 0541

6809.0 FC4FEM snd, 0420

The eye of Ike is nearing Galveston, TX at 0606 UTC. Water is coming up over the sea wall, and there are fires burning.

USCG will be making many rescues when it becomes light and weather improves. COTHEN is worth checking out.

9/13 (UTC) SoCal ALE Hits, Mostly Ike-Related

4490.0  SND  KNY58      02:38:33
4490.0  SND  045NCS     03.41.42
5135.0  SND  SEMO05     02:26:46
5711.0  SND  043NCS     02:41:27
6806.0  SND  0011ARCAP  03:12:38
7348.0  SND  FC4FEM     00:20:14
9414.5  SND  ARC 
9414.5  SND  119CDCS05  00:50:21
11217.0 SND  KTQ313     00:52:05
11217.0 SND  AAT        00:45:55
12164.0 SND  119CDCS05  00:43:27
12216.0 SND  VA3FEM     00:33:53

FC6:
4780.0
5402.0
6809.0
7348.0
9462.0
13446.0

VA3FEM:
6809.0
9462.0
12216.0

FC4FEM:
6809.0
7348.0
9462.0
10194.0

0011ARCAP = US Civil Air Patrol
043NCS = SHARES Natl. Comm. System Liason, unknown location
119CDS05 = US Centers For Disease Control, NPHRN
FC4FEM = FEMA Region 4, Atlanta, GA
KNY58 = SHARES NCS Liason, Gadsen, AL
KTQ313 = US Environmental Protection Agency, Montgomery AL
SEMO05 = NY State Emergency Mgmt. Office
VA3FEM = Unknown FEMA

FEMA NTCN HF ALE Net:
4780
5378
5402
5821
6809
7348
8050
9462
10194
10588
12216
13446

9/12 SoCal Federal Logs

Noteworthy COTHEN & Misc Federal ALE hits:

8912.0  CRB TO T9A 22:49:40
11494.0 USDAEOC2 SND 22:58:05
13446.0 FC6 TO TX6 23:18:23 (LQA)
15867.0 T9A SND 21:41:49
15867.0 RDC SND 22:03:00
18594.0 RDC SND 22:03:00
20890.0 RDC SND 22:03:43

COTHEN
ALE Addresses: 500, C06, CRB, D70, F33, I08, J01, J10, J19, J23, J30, J31, LNT, OPB, P03, P21, PAC, RDC, T16, T47, T72, T9A, TSC
Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350

500 = USCG Coast Guard 1500 (HC-130H)
C06 = US Army Corps of Engineers Rapid Response Vehicle #6, TX
CRB/T9A/T16/T47 = Probable US Customs & Border Protection, Caribbean
F33 = USCG HU-25, Corpus Christi, TX
FC6 = FEMA Region 6, TX
J01 = USCG 6001, MH-60J helo, E-City
J10 = USCG 6010, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J19 = USCG 6019, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J23 = USCG 6023, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
J31 = USCG 6031, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
LNT = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Atlantic, Norfolk, VA
OPB = US Drug Enforcement Agency OPBAT (Operations, Bahamas And Tortugas), Nassau
P03 = Possible USCG Air Station, E-City
PAC = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Pacific, Pt. Reyes, CA
RDC = USCG Cutter Campbell (WMEC-909)
TSC = COTHEN Technical Service Center/ Remote/ Natl Law Enforcement Comm, FL
TX6 = FEMA, unknown Texas, possible truncated address
USDAEOC2 = US Dept. of Agriculture Alternate Emergency Operations Center, MD
(11494 is also a USDA freq)

Note: Coast Guard aircraft are already working rescues as of Friday afternoon.

First National Guard Hit In SoCal

17458.5
HQ703N, link quality analysis with T040NN in ALE at 1914.
US Army National Guard STARC Nationwide Net.

Other National Guard STARC ALE freqs heard nearer the scene include:

5817.0
8047.0
8622.0
12087.0

Hurricane Recon Aircraft Working New York

US Air Force (TEALxx) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAAxx) have frequently been heard working New York Radio on the usual MWARA frequencies. Traffic has been mostly position checks, but also occasional information that they were unable to send by satellite.

New York Radio frequencies are:

MWARA:
2887.0
2899.0
2962.0
3016.0
3455.0
5520.0
5550.0
5598.0
5616.0
6577.0
6586.0
6628.0
8825.0
8846.0
8864.0
8906.0
8918.0
11309.0
11330.0
11396.0
13291.0
13297.0
13306.0
13354.0
17907.0
17946.0

Long Distance Operational Control:
8933.0
11342.0

VOLMET Aviation Weather
3885.0
6604.0
10051.0
13270.0

Galveston Area Local Statement 1832 UTC/ 1332 CDT

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131845-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY- BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL... AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

CHAMBERS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON ISLAND.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA... OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND... KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE TO THE PENINSULA.

HARRIS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586... 77598 AND 77507.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15TH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:

HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET PORT O`CONNOR - 3.6 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT... FRI 2:52 PM. SAT 2:59 PM. CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE... SAT 10:43 AM. EAGLE POINT... SAT 8:32 AM. PORT BOLIVAR... FRI 1:52 PM. SAT 4:52 AM. SAT 3:00 PM. GALVESTON CHANNEL... FRI 1:38 PM. SAT 4:38 AM. SAT 2:46 PM. GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER... SAT 3:32 AM. SAT 1:40 PM. JAMAICA BEACH... FRI 4:16 PM. SAT 7:16 AM. SAT 5:24 PM. SAN LUIS PASS... FRI 1:29 PM. SAT 4:29 AM. SAT 2:37 PM. FREEPORT... SAT 3:54 AM. SAT 2:02 PM. PORT O CONNOR... SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.

$$

Air Recon Taskings for September 13-14

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 12 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-104

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 25.0N 77.5W AT 14/1800Z WITH FOLLOW ON
6-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 15/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Ike Advisory #46A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Federal ALE Logs 11 Sep 08

5732.0 22:25:46 TO J23 TIS LNT
5732.0 22:27:16 TO J23 TIS LNT
5732.0 22:57:36 TO J23 TIS LNT
5732.0 23:07:14 TO Z299 TIS J37
5732.0 23:08:07 SND  TWS J37
6809.0 21:49:01 SND  TWS FC8FEM
6809.0 22:48:56 SND  TWS FC8FEM
7348.0 22:48:47 SND  TWS FC8FEM
9106.0 20:41:05 SND  TWS 43NCS
9462.0 19:48:18 SND  TWS FC8FEM
9462.0 22:48:24 SND  TWS FC8FEM
10194.0 21:48:14 SND  TWS FC8FEM
10588.0 22:48:01 SND  TWS FC8FEM
12164.0 20:18:48 SND  TIS 119CDCS05
12164.0 22:12:26 SND  TIS 119CDCS05
12216.0 19:47:33 SND  TWS FC8FEM
12216.0 19:57:34 TO FM8FEM3 TIS FM8FEM4D
12216.0 21:47:28 SND  TWS FC8FEM
13488.0 22:12:50 SND  TIS 119CDCS05
14776.0 21:09:58 SND  TWS FC6
              

119CDCS05 = US Centers for Disease Control, National Public Health Radio Network (NPHRN)
43NCS = SHARES National Communication System liason, probably KNR43
FC6 = FEMA Region 6, Denton, TX. FEMA National Radio System (FNARS)
FC8FEM = FEMA Region 8, Denver, CO. FNARS
FM8FEM3, FM8FEM4D = Unknown FEMA Region 8 mobiles
J23, J37 = Probably USCG aircraft on COTHEN
LNT = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Atlantic (Norfolk, VA)

Hurricane Ike Partial Local Statement (Scary)

Entire statement here.

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
819 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT 12 MPH...

.AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAD RISEN TO 954 MB OR 28.17 INCHES OF MERCURY.

...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES IN WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM.

$$

Texas Emergency Information From Milcom Blog

Full posting here, highly recommended.

Several items of note for monitors:

The best area radio station in the Houston-Galveston area is KTRH News Radio 740. The audio stream link is http://www.ktrh.com/cc-common/ondemand/player.html?world=st

As first introduced on our sister blog the Btown monitor post the best hurricane information website is at Storm Pulse. You can reach that site at http://www.stormpulse.com/

Blog Logs started Sep-10-2008 17:36 Eastern Standard Time

4490.0 SHARES SCN Ch 3:- AAT3BF KNY58
4765.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- WWLNNN
4780.0 IN NG Primary:- INDOPS R22977
5015.0 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 2:- LRD1
5135.0 US Secure:- FC8 NA1SH SEMOHQ SEMO03
5140.0 US Secure:- FC8
5158.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- AAN3DCA AAT3BF EDXNNN WWLNNN
5378.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
5402.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
5711.0 SHARES SCN Channel 4 - AAT3BF
5817.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- NRK RLD
5821.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
5847.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- RLD
5961.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
6151.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
6785.0 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 7:- LRD1
6806.0 USAF CAP ALE:- 0004WICAP 0011ARCAP 100SWRCAP 101NCRCAP 2204LACAP AVS
6809.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
7348.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR3 FR5FEM
7428.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) - FR5FEM
7642.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- 2PBAFA
8012.0 USAF CAP ALE:- 0011ARCAP 2204LACAP AVS
8037.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- VAB NRK
8047.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N L060AN VAB
8050.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) - FC8FEM FR5FEM
9025.0 USAF HF-GCS Scope Command ALE HF Network - ADW CRO OFF PLA
9106.0 SHARES SCN Channel 5 - AAT3BF 2PBAFA
9122.5 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 8:- G323
10816.5 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N N040CN
10588.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM
11217.0 SHARES SCN Channel 6 - AAT3BF
12087.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N I100DN N040CN
12216.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM
13242.0 DISA NIPR:- ICZNPR MCCNPR
15094.0 SHARES SCN Ch 7:- 043NCS
17485.5 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N I100DN

COTHEN: 500 501 701 720 A97 D48 F41 I97 J01 J03 J15 J19 J23 J38 LNT N01 PR1PRI PR1SEC TSC VE5
AQC ALE Address: MT8MWF

Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350.0

Evacuations Underway In Galveston Area

Bloomberg:

Hurricane Ike Aims at Houston; Evacuations Called (Update2)

By Brian K. Sullivan

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike tripled in size in the central Gulf of Mexico as it churned on a weekend collision course with the 5.6 million residents of the Houston area, where coastal communities prepared to evacuate.

The system's strongest winds extend as far as 115 miles (185 kilometers) from the eye, up from 35 miles yesterday, the Miami- based National Hurricane Center said today. Ike's wind field is now larger than that of Katrina, the storm that devastated New Orleans in 2005, said Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc.

``The total amount of energy is more powerful than Katrina, so we could be seeing a storm surge that could rival Katrina,'' Masters said. The storm is so large ``the location doesn't matter much; it is going to inundate a huge part of the Texas coast.''