Saturday, September 27, 2008

Air Recon Taskings for September 29-30

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271400 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 27 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-119 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1.TROPICAL STORM KYLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70.....TEAL CALL SIGN CORRECTED
A. 28/1800Z, 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1811A KYLE
C. 28/1330Z
D. 41.0N 68.4W
E. 28/1730Z TO 29/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2.OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Kyle Is Now A Hurricane

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM... SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Monday, September 22, 2008

Cycle 24 Spots: Can It Be?


A small sunspot group has appeared with a magnetic polarity suggesting the beginning (again) of solar cycle 24. Maybe this time it's for real. For what it's worth, this group actually has a number (11001), which the previous faint spot did not.

Definitive statements always wait on moving averages that haven't happened yet, but we do know that the end of cycle 23 had a double minimum, making 24 very, very late. Before this, we had gone at least a month with no observable sunspots at all.

As we know, many observers are predicting a low peak, followed by a pause in solar activity resembling the Dalton Minimum observed from 1790 to 1830. These minimums tend to appear at the same time as cold weather spells aka "little ice ages."

While a "little ice age" in the 21st century is a very interesting hypothesis, there are other variables influencing climate. I can't yet share the euphoria of many Internet writers that we can now cancel global warming. We will just have to wait for the data on this one too.

I hope that, this time, the solar activity really is on the way up. HF has become quite boring here in The Land That Shortwave Forgot.


More


Photo credit: SOHO/MDI

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Another One Bites The Dust: RN Ends NA Beams

We all know that if short wave broadcasters keep cutting their services to North America, that the audience will decline, and then they can eliminate them altogether because, after all, the audience has declined.

Self fulfilling prophecy.

Radio Netherlands has of course been busily strangling its world band services ever since Tom Meijer got canned for being the wrong demographic. First, it assumed we, as rich Americans, already had satellite dishes. Now, apparently, it assumes we all want to settle for the lousy "reception" of internet streams.

Meanwhile, is it just me, or has RNW become boring as hell anyway, the same way BBCWS got when it cut all the good stuff?

So it goes. Kiss RN goodbye:

RNW to end shortwave broadcasts to North America

Radio Netherlands Worldwide’s English broadcasts are available in North America in an increasing variety of different ways.

More and more partner stations are taking our programming (a growing number of NPR stations in the US and CBC in Canada) and there are now a variety of satellite options (including Sirius satellite radio).

The programmes are also available live, on-demand and via podcast.

Radio Netherlands now feels that the number of alternatives for listeners in North America is such that we have decided to end our shortwave broadcasts to the region. This will take effect from the start of our winter season on 26 October 2008.

The decision has been backed up by a recent survey which showed a decline in the number of listeners using shortwave in North America.

For full details please go to this page on our main website. You may also leave your comments at the bottom of that page.

Source: Media Network

Monday, September 15, 2008

9/14 COTHEN and USACE Logs

Propagation conditions have tanked here in The Land That Shortwave Forgot. This will have to be the last log for a while:

5327.5 WUK437-US Army Corps Of Engineers, CA, ALE sounding, also on 6020 and 6785, at 2052.

7527.0 LNT raised J31 in ALE, then USB voice at 2149.

8912.0 CRB raised D31 in ALE, then secure PARKHILL comm in USB, at 2120.
8912.0 LNT raised K15 in ALE, link quality analyses at 2124.
8912.0 CNT raised D31 in ALE, then clear and secure USB voice, at 2137 and 2142.

11494.0 USDAEOC2-US Dept of Agriculture Alternate Emergency Operations Center, MD, ALE sounding at 2306. Station is not in the COTHEN net, but this frequency is common to both.


COTHEN callsigns heard: 501, 716, A39, CNT, CRB, D31, D45, J01, J09, K15, LNT, T16
Freqs: 7527.0, 8912.0, 10242.0, 11494.0, 13907.0, 15867.0, 18594.0

501 = Coast Guard 1501, HC-130H, E-City
716 = Coast Guard 1716, HC-130H, Sacramento, CA
A39 = US Customs & Border Protection AB139, reg. #N139HS
CNT = CBP Central Regional Communications Node
CRB = CBP Caribbean Regional Communications Node
D31, D45 = CBP P-3 patrol a/c
J01 = Coast Guard 6001, MH-60J helo, E-City
J09 = Coast Guard 6009, MH-60J helo, E-City
K15 = USCG rescue helo, probably Coast Guard Rescue 6515
LNT = Camslant Chesapeake
T16 = CBP Piper PA-42-720R, reg. #N9116Q, FL

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Advisory #50A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131759
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM... SOUTH OF TYLER TEXAS...AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IKE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Ike Advisory #50

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131441
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...AND ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB...28.60 INCHES...WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Late Night 9/13 SoCal ALE, Mostly Ike

4490.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 3), snd, 0341, 0441, 0541

5135.0 0401MT (US SECURE Net) snd, 0428

5378.0 FC4FEM (FEMA Region 4, GA) calling/LQA AL4FEM (Possibly Alabama), 0442

5378.0 FC4FEM calling/LQA MS4FEM (Possibly Mississippi), 0514

5711.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 4), snd 0541

6809.0 FC4FEM snd, 0420

The eye of Ike is nearing Galveston, TX at 0606 UTC. Water is coming up over the sea wall, and there are fires burning.

USCG will be making many rescues when it becomes light and weather improves. COTHEN is worth checking out.

9/13 (UTC) SoCal ALE Hits, Mostly Ike-Related


4490.0 SND KNY58 02:38:33
4490.0 SND 045NCS 03.41.42
5135.0 SND SEMO05 02:26:46
5711.0 SND 043NCS 02:41:27
6806.0 SND 0011ARCAP 03:12:38
7348.0 SND FC4FEM 00:20:14
9414.5 SND ARC
9414.5 SND 119CDCS05 00:50:21
11217.0 SND KTQ313 00:52:05
11217.0 SND AAT 00:45:55
12164.0 SND 119CDCS05 00:43:27
12216.0 SND VA3FEM 00:33:53

FC6:
4780.0
5402.0
6809.0
7348.0
9462.0
13446.0

VA3FEM:
6809.0
9462.0
12216.0

FC4FEM:
6809.0
7348.0
9462.0
10194.0



0011ARCAP = US Civil Air Patrol
043NCS = SHARES Natl. Comm. System Liason, unknown location
119CDS05 = US Centers For Disease Control, NPHRN
FC4FEM = FEMA Region 4, Atlanta, GA
KNY58 = SHARES NCS Liason, Gadsen, AL
KTQ313 = US Environmental Protection Agency, Montgomery AL
SEMO05 = NY State Emergency Mgmt. Office
VA3FEM = Unknown FEMA

FEMA NTCN HF ALE Net:
4780
5378
5402
5821
6809
7348
8050
9462
10194
10588
12216
13446

9/12 SoCal Federal Logs

Noteworthy COTHEN & Misc Federal ALE hits:


8912.0 CRB TO T9A 22:49:40
11494.0 USDAEOC2 SND 22:58:05
13446.0 FC6 TO TX6 23:18:23 (LQA)
15867.0 T9A SND 21:41:49
15867.0 RDC SND 22:03:00
18594.0 RDC SND 22:03:00
20890.0 RDC SND 22:03:43


COTHEN
ALE Addresses: 500, C06, CRB, D70, F33, I08, J01, J10, J19, J23, J30, J31, LNT, OPB, P03, P21, PAC, RDC, T16, T47, T72, T9A, TSC
Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350

500 = USCG Coast Guard 1500 (HC-130H)
C06 = US Army Corps of Engineers Rapid Response Vehicle #6, TX
CRB/T9A/T16/T47 = Probable US Customs & Border Protection, Caribbean
F33 = USCG HU-25, Corpus Christi, TX
FC6 = FEMA Region 6, TX
J01 = USCG 6001, MH-60J helo, E-City
J10 = USCG 6010, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J19 = USCG 6019, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J23 = USCG 6023, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
J31 = USCG 6031, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
LNT = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Atlantic, Norfolk, VA
OPB = US Drug Enforcement Agency OPBAT (Operations, Bahamas And Tortugas), Nassau
P03 = Possible USCG Air Station, E-City
PAC = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Pacific, Pt. Reyes, CA
RDC = USCG Cutter Campbell (WMEC-909)
TSC = COTHEN Technical Service Center/ Remote/ Natl Law Enforcement Comm, FL
TX6 = FEMA, unknown Texas, possible truncated address
USDAEOC2 = US Dept. of Agriculture Alternate Emergency Operations Center, MD
(11494 is also a USDA freq)

Note: Coast Guard aircraft are already working rescues as of Friday afternoon.

Friday, September 12, 2008

First National Guard Hit In SoCal

17458.5
HQ703N, link quality analysis with T040NN in ALE at 1914.
US Army National Guard STARC Nationwide Net.

Other National Guard STARC ALE freqs heard nearer the scene include:

5817.0
8047.0
8622.0
12087.0

Hurricane Recon Aircraft Working New York

US Air Force (TEALxx) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAAxx) have frequently been heard working New York Radio on the usual MWARA frequencies. Traffic has been mostly position checks, but also occasional information that they were unable to send by satellite.

New York Radio frequencies are:

MWARA:
2887.0
2899.0
2962.0
3016.0
3455.0
5520.0
5550.0
5598.0
5616.0
6577.0
6586.0
6628.0
8825.0
8846.0
8864.0
8906.0
8918.0
11309.0
11330.0
11396.0
13291.0
13297.0
13306.0
13354.0
17907.0
17946.0

Long Distance Operational Control:
8933.0
11342.0

VOLMET Aviation Weather
3885.0
6604.0
10051.0
13270.0

Galveston Area Local Statement 1832 UTC/ 1332 CDT

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131845-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY- BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL... AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

CHAMBERS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON ISLAND.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA... OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND... KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE TO THE PENINSULA.

HARRIS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586... 77598 AND 77507.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15TH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:

HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET PORT O`CONNOR - 3.6 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT... FRI 2:52 PM. SAT 2:59 PM. CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE... SAT 10:43 AM. EAGLE POINT... SAT 8:32 AM. PORT BOLIVAR... FRI 1:52 PM. SAT 4:52 AM. SAT 3:00 PM. GALVESTON CHANNEL... FRI 1:38 PM. SAT 4:38 AM. SAT 2:46 PM. GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER... SAT 3:32 AM. SAT 1:40 PM. JAMAICA BEACH... FRI 4:16 PM. SAT 7:16 AM. SAT 5:24 PM. SAN LUIS PASS... FRI 1:29 PM. SAT 4:29 AM. SAT 2:37 PM. FREEPORT... SAT 3:54 AM. SAT 2:02 PM. PORT O CONNOR... SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.

$$

Air Recon Taskings for September 13-14

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 12 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-104

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 25.0N 77.5W AT 14/1800Z WITH FOLLOW ON
6-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 15/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Ike Advisory #46A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Federal ALE Logs 11 Sep 08


5732.0 22:25:46 TO J23 TIS LNT
5732.0 22:27:16 TO J23 TIS LNT
5732.0 22:57:36 TO J23 TIS LNT
5732.0 23:07:14 TO Z299 TIS J37
5732.0 23:08:07 SND TWS J37
6809.0 21:49:01 SND TWS FC8FEM
6809.0 22:48:56 SND TWS FC8FEM
7348.0 22:48:47 SND TWS FC8FEM
9106.0 20:41:05 SND TWS 43NCS
9462.0 19:48:18 SND TWS FC8FEM
9462.0 22:48:24 SND TWS FC8FEM
10194.0 21:48:14 SND TWS FC8FEM
10588.0 22:48:01 SND TWS FC8FEM
12164.0 20:18:48 SND TIS 119CDCS05
12164.0 22:12:26 SND TIS 119CDCS05
12216.0 19:47:33 SND TWS FC8FEM
12216.0 19:57:34 TO FM8FEM3 TIS FM8FEM4D
12216.0 21:47:28 SND TWS FC8FEM
13488.0 22:12:50 SND TIS 119CDCS05
14776.0 21:09:58 SND TWS FC6



119CDCS05 = US Centers for Disease Control, National Public Health Radio Network (NPHRN)
43NCS = SHARES National Communication System liason, probably KNR43
FC6 = FEMA Region 6, Denton, TX. FEMA National Radio System (FNARS)
FC8FEM = FEMA Region 8, Denver, CO. FNARS
FM8FEM3, FM8FEM4D = Unknown FEMA Region 8 mobiles
J23, J37 = Probably USCG aircraft on COTHEN
LNT = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Atlantic (Norfolk, VA)

Hurricane Ike Partial Local Statement (Scary)

Entire statement here.

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
819 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT 12 MPH...

.AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAD RISEN TO 954 MB OR 28.17 INCHES OF MERCURY.


...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES IN WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM.

$$

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Texas Emergency Information From Milcom Blog

Full posting here, highly recommended.

Several items of note for monitors:

The best area radio station in the Houston-Galveston area is KTRH News Radio 740. The audio stream link is http://www.ktrh.com/cc-common/ondemand/player.html?world=st

As first introduced on our sister blog the Btown monitor post the best hurricane information website is at Storm Pulse. You can reach that site at http://www.stormpulse.com/

Blog Logs started Sep-10-2008 17:36 Eastern Standard Time

4490.0 SHARES SCN Ch 3:- AAT3BF KNY58
4765.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- WWLNNN
4780.0 IN NG Primary:- INDOPS R22977
5015.0 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 2:- LRD1
5135.0 US Secure:- FC8 NA1SH SEMOHQ SEMO03
5140.0 US Secure:- FC8
5158.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- AAN3DCA AAT3BF EDXNNN WWLNNN
5378.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
5402.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
5711.0 SHARES SCN Channel 4 - AAT3BF
5817.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- NRK RLD
5821.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
5847.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- RLD
5961.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
6151.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
6785.0 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 7:- LRD1
6806.0 USAF CAP ALE:- 0004WICAP 0011ARCAP 100SWRCAP 101NCRCAP 2204LACAP AVS
6809.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
7348.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR3 FR5FEM
7428.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) - FR5FEM
7642.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- 2PBAFA
8012.0 USAF CAP ALE:- 0011ARCAP 2204LACAP AVS
8037.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- VAB NRK
8047.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N L060AN VAB
8050.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) - FC8FEM FR5FEM
9025.0 USAF HF-GCS Scope Command ALE HF Network - ADW CRO OFF PLA
9106.0 SHARES SCN Channel 5 - AAT3BF 2PBAFA
9122.5 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 8:- G323
10816.5 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N N040CN
10588.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM
11217.0 SHARES SCN Channel 6 - AAT3BF
12087.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N I100DN N040CN
12216.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM
13242.0 DISA NIPR:- ICZNPR MCCNPR
15094.0 SHARES SCN Ch 7:- 043NCS
17485.5 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N I100DN

COTHEN: 500 501 701 720 A97 D48 F41 I97 J01 J03 J15 J19 J23 J38 LNT N01 PR1PRI PR1SEC TSC VE5
AQC ALE Address: MT8MWF

Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350.0

Evacuations Underway In Galveston Area

Bloomberg:


Hurricane Ike Aims at Houston; Evacuations Called (Update2)

By Brian K. Sullivan

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike tripled in size in the central Gulf of Mexico as it churned on a weekend collision course with the 5.6 million residents of the Houston area, where coastal communities prepared to evacuate.

The system's strongest winds extend as far as 115 miles (185 kilometers) from the eye, up from 35 miles yesterday, the Miami- based National Hurricane Center said today. Ike's wind field is now larger than that of Katrina, the storm that devastated New Orleans in 2005, said Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc.

``The total amount of energy is more powerful than Katrina, so we could be seeing a storm surge that could rival Katrina,'' Masters said. The storm is so large ``the location doesn't matter much; it is going to inundate a huge part of the Texas coast.''

Air Recon Taskings for September 12

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 11 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/2100,13/0000,0300Z
B. AFXXX 3309A IKE
C. 12/1845Z
D. 27.4N 93.7W
E. 12/2000Z TO 13/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA2 3409A IKE
C. 12/2000Z
D. NA
E. NA
D. SFC TO 8,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72X
A. 13/0600,0900,1200Z
B. AFXXX 3509A IKE
C. 13/0330Z
D. 28.4N 95.2W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Ike Advisory #42A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Houston, We Have A Problem (JSC Closes for Ike)

Sept. 11, 2008

Allard Beutel
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
allard.beutel@nasa.gov

Michael Curie
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-4715
michael.curie@nasa.gov

John Ira Petty
Johnson Space Center, Houston
281-483-5111
john.i.petty@nasa.gov

RELEASE: 08-230

NASA'S JOHNSON SPACE CENTER CLOSES FOR IKE

HOUSTON - NASA's Johnson Space Center will close at noon CDT Thursday and remain closed until the threat of Hurricane Ike has passed. Ike, a Category 2 hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to cross the Texas coast early Saturday as a Category 3 storm.

The International Space Station Flight Control Room at Mission Control in Houston was shut down Thursday morning. Station flight control continued through backup teams located near Austin, Texas, and Huntsville, Ala.

Most NASA aircraft at Ellington Field, located just north of Johnson, have been flown to a facility in El Paso, Texas. That includes 19 of 26 T-38s, a WB-57, and three of four shuttle training aircraft. Nine other aircraft are undergoing maintenance and have been secured in hangars at Ellington.

Johnson employees and journalists should call the Employee Information Line for updated news on the center's status. The local telephone number is 281-483-3351. If local communications are disrupted, employees can call a toll-free information line at 877-283-1947.

NASA has a Web site to convey important information to NASA employees and contractors impacted by Hurricane Ike at:

http://www.nasa.gov/eoc


-end-

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Air Recon Taskings 9/11-12

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 WILL DEPART 11/1215Z FOR A BUOY
DROP MISSION IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AFXXX 2609A
IKE. SFC TO 10,000

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800,12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2709A IKE
C. 11/1530Z
D. 25.2N 89.7W
E. 11/1700Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 WILL BE A SURVEILLANCE MISSION
DEPARTING 11/1730Z. NOAA9 2809A IKE. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 11/2000Z. N0AA2 2909A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 3009A IKE
C. 12/0015Z
D. 25.6N 91.4W
E. 12/0200Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 43 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 12/0800Z. NOAA3 3109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT SEVEN -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1200,1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 3209A IKE
C. 12/0930Z
D. 26.3N 93.2W
E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.
WP-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Ike Advisory #38

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Hurricane Ike Advisory #35

000
WTNT34 KNHC 092043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Air Recon Taskings for September 10-11

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 09 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800,11/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2009A IKE
C. 10/1530Z
D. 24.2N 86.8W
E. 10/1700Z TO 11/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 11/0000Z
B. NOAA9 2109A IKE
C. 10/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 10/2000Z. N0AA2 2209A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 2309A IKE
C. 11/0345Z
D. 25.0N 88.5W
E. 11/0500Z TO 11/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 11/1200Z
B. NOAA9 2409A IKE
C. 11/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 43 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 11/0800Z. NOAA3 2509A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 11/1500Z. A G-IV MISSION FOR 12/0000Z.
WP-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. A BUOY DROP IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
000
NOUS42 KNHC 081400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 08 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O9/1100Z TO 10/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 09/1800,10/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1509A IKE
C. 08/1430Z
D. 22.4N 83.0W
E. 09/1700Z TO 10/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTING 09/2000Z. N0AA2 1609A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 74
A. 10/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1709A IKE
C. 10/0300Z
D. 23.5N 84.4W
E. 10/0500Z TO 10/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 10/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1809A IKE
C. 10/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTING 10/0800Z. NOAA3 1909A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. G-IV
MISSIONS DEPARTING 10/1730Z AND 11/0530Z. WP-3 RESEARCH
MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Ike Advisory #31

000
WTNT34 KNHC 082056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...CORRECTION TO REMOVE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

Sunday, September 07, 2008

September 7-8 Air Recon Taskings

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT SAT 06 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O7/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0909A IKE
C. 07/1500Z
D. 21.6N 74.1W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1009A IKE
C. 07/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1109A IKE
C. 08/0230Z
D. 21.8N 76.6W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1209A IKE
C. 08/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT
08/1500Z. A G-IV FOR 09/0000Z. A WP-3 AXBT DEPLOYMENT
AT 08/1600Z.

3. REMARKS: N0AA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING TISX AT 07/2000Z. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Ike Advisory #23

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

T.S. Hanna Advisory #40

000
WTNT33 KNHC 062032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR JUST EAST OF CAMBRIDGE MARYLAND. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL CROSS THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...HANNA IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER. WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ABLEMARLE SOUNDS... SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...38.5 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Scary Hurricane Ike Advisory #20

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES... 580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

Important T.S. Hanna Advisory #37

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060255
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

...HANNA HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN A HURRY...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...WASHINGTON D.C...DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AND HANNA SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM MAINLY TI THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

New Hurricane Information Wiki

This was started for Gustav, but in this explosive season they've decided to continue it.

http://www.gustavwiki.com/wiki/Main_Page

Friday, September 05, 2008

Air Recon Taskings for September 6-7 (All Ike)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051430 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 05 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O6/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-097 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72.....NO CHANGE
A. 06/1800,07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IKE
C. 06/1530Z
D. 22.7N 68.1W
E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 ....NO CHANGE
A. 07/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0509A IKE
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 74.....ADDED
A. 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0609A IKE
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70.....CHANGED
A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0709A IKE....FLT NO ONLY CHANGE
C. 07/0330Z
D. 22.4N 70.6W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49......ADDED
A. 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0809A IKE
C. 07/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV FOR 08/0000Z. A WP-3 RESEARCH MISSION AT 07/2000Z

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

T.S. Hanna Advisory #35A

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051747
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

...HANNA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY... INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC...WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FARTHER EAST THAT EARLIER REPORTED. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. NOAA BUOY 41010 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 979.7 MB AS THE CENTER OF HANNA PASSED OVER IT A FEW HOURS AGO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINA...MARYLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND COASTAL GEORGIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HANNA ADVANCES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Air Recon Taskings for September 4-5

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 03 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O4/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77
A. 04/1800,05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0908A HANNA
C. 04/1350Z
D. 24.3N 74.2W
E. 04/1700Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 05/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1008A HANNA
C. 04/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 78
A. 05/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1108A HANNA
C. 05/0145Z
D. 26.1N 76.1W
E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES ON
HANNA BEGINNING AT 05/1500Z. START 12-HRLY FIXES ON
T.S.IKE AT 05/1800Z. NOAA WP-3'S WILL BEGIN RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING 05/0800Z.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


000
NOUS42 KNHC 041300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 04 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O5/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 05/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 1108A HANNA
C. 05/1200Z
D. 29.6N 77.9W
E. 05/1400Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 06/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1208A HANNA
C. 05/2100Z
D. 31.9N 78.4W
E. 05/2300Z TO 06/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 77
A. 06/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1308A HANNA
C. 06/0600Z
D. 33.5N 78.4W
E. 08/0800Z TO 06/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 05/0800A FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGT THREE -- NOAA 42 DEPART AT 05/2000Z FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0309A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IKE
C. 06/0400Z
D. 23.4N 64.9W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 06/0900Z FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0509A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE ON HANNA.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE IKE AT 06/1800Z. A G-IV
MISSION FOR 07/0000Z. NOAA WP-3'S CONTINUE RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS.

4. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION WITH 04/1730Z T.O.CANCELED.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

T.S. Hanna Advisory #31A

000
WTNT33 KNHC 041916
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

CORRECTED FOR TIME IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH

...HANNA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 670 MILES...1080 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER... HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.1 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Atlantic, Thy Name Is Stormy

T.D. Gustav Advisory #36

[Advisories for this inland storm are now being issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD.]

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL072008
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 21Z/4 PM CDT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER ADJACENT NORTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AT 1000 AM CDT...15Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT


...ALABAMA...

SARALAND 1.4 E 7.62 COCORAHS
TILLMANS CORNER 6.4 WNW 6.25 COCORAHS
FAIRHOPE 1.4 W 6.04 COCORAHS
FOLEY 7.4 SW 5.84 COCORAHS
MOBILE (BFM BROOKLEY FIELD) 3.10
MOBILE (MOB) 2.22

...MISSISSIPPI...

JOURDAN RIVER NEAR BAY ST LOUIS MS 5.57 USGS GAUGE
MCCOMB 4.88
PASCAGOULA 4.61
LEAF RIVER NEAR NEW AUGUSTA MS 4.44 USGS GAUGE
CARRIERE 3.2 SSW 4.23 COCORAHS
BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.01
VICKSBURG 2.2 NE 3.86 COCORAHS
HATTIESBURG 3.48
LAUREL 2.89

...LOUISIANA...

LITTLE RIVER NEAR ROCHELLE LA 6.44 USGS GAUGE
BOGUE CHITTO RIVER AT FRANKLINTON LA 6.23 USGS GAUGE
ALEXANDRIA 4.97
LAFAYETTE MSG DATA MON 21Z-00Z TUE 4.31
DELTA COMMUNITY COLLEGE 3.81 COCORAHS
MONROE (MLU) 3.52
MONROE 2.4 WNW 3.34 COCORAHS
FORT POLK 2.74
BATON ROUGE 2.67
NEW ORLEANS NAS 2.44

...FLORIDA...

HAINES CITY 3.3 SSW 3.42 COCORAHS
POLK CITY 1.1 S 3.05
PENSACOLA NAS 3.05
DESTIN 2.08
MARATHON 2.04

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIVE TO TEN INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF FIFTEEN INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH A MAXIMUM OF EIGHT INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...32.4 N...93.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON GUSTAV WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECASTER PETERSEN

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 32.4N 93.7W
12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.9N 94.0W
24HR VT 03/1200Z 33.4N 94.0W
36HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 93.9W
48HR VT 04/1200Z 36.5N 92.8W
72HR VT 05/1200Z DISSIPATED

Monday, September 01, 2008

First COTHEN Activity

8912.0
D48, USCG, raised D31 at 2054, went to USB voice (callsign "3100") for hurricane related traffic regarding Biloxi and New Orleans, back to scan at 2056. D31/3100 voice comm with EST at 2228. USCG/CBP P-3s.

D48, sounding on 5732, 7527, 8912, 10242, 11494 and 15867, all USB ALE at 2125-2126.

11494.0
EST, US Customs Eastern communication remote, Link Quality Assessment with D31 at 2131.

10242.0
701, possible USCG HC-130H7 Coast Guard 1701, ALE sounding at 2138.
501, possible USCG HC-130H Coast Guard 1501, ALE sounding at 2145. Could also be a character hit on CG1701.

11494.0
TSC, US Customs Technical Service Center, FL, LQA with CG701 at 2151.

10242.0
D31 working EST, USB ALE and voice, no copy on the voice, at 2213.

First Federal Storm Relief Logs

5153.5 kHz USB is an unknown MARS net. 10493.0 USB and LSB are FEMA National Emergency Coordinating Net. Conditions are normal for this time of year, in other words wretched, and none of this is currently making it to The Land That Short Wave Forgot.

It's probably worth monitoring 14325.0 USB, the amateur Hurricane Watch Net, though that one too is only computer QRM here. Ahhh, hurricane season. Back to COTHEN I go.

Anyone else who's into ALE might consider COTHEN (Customs Over-The-Horizon Enforcement Network) for post-storm rescue operations. It was busy after Katrina. Freqs (all USB, ALE then follow-on in clear or secure voice) are:

5732
7527
8912
10242
11494
13907
15867
18594
20890
23214
25350

so far just routine soundings by Idaho xx (FBI drug interdiction) aircraft not connected with Gustav.