Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Weather Recon Tasking for TD-16 September 27-30

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW


---

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 28 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 29/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 29/1230Z
D. 24.2N 80.6W
E. 29/1430Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 30/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0416A CYCLONE
C. 29/2115Z
D. 26.5N 79.8W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
30/1200Z IF SYSTEM STILL A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: THERE ARE NO KNOWN RESERACH MISSIONS
SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Aircraft Taskings for September 27-28

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261635 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for Caribbean September 23-24

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS:
A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z
AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.
B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND
OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS
AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Forecast Positions for Igor's Northern Adventure (NHC Fcst/Adv #54)

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 50SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT.......400NE 350SE 350SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..550NE 750SE 995SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 50.2N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...660NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
34 KT...720NE 600SE 500SW 750NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 55.3N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...350NE 0SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...420NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.
34 KT...450NE 650SE 570SW 720NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 59.8N 51.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
34 KT...500NE 800SE 240SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 62.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 360SE 360SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 63.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 240SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 62.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.2N 52.8W

Igor Still A Hurricane off Newfoundland, Heading for Arctic

Canadian Hurricane Center

WOCN31 CWHX 211500
Hurricane igor intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 12.30 PM NDT Tuesday 21 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 PM NDT

...Rainfall totals reported at st. Lawrence in excess of 200 millimetres...Flooding and washouts reported...Hurricane Force gusts reported at coastal stations in southern Newfoundland...

At 12.30 PM NDT... Hurricane igor was located near latitude 46.4 N and longitude 52.9 W... About 20 nautical miles or 35 km South of Cape Race.

Igor is moving towards the north-northeast at 45 knots...85 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 70 knots... 130 km/h and central pressure at 952 MB.

Igor is showing signs of tracking somewhat further west than The forecast track issued this morning....Taking the storm Closer to the Eastern Avalon Peninsula.

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are continued for southern and Eastern Newfoundland.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End hatt

Weather Flights for 22-23 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 21 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 22/1700Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W
E. 22/1730-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT


2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS:
A.THE NCAR G-V MAY FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE
SAME AREA TOMORROW MORNING 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.
. B. NASA DC-8 MAY ALSO FLY THIS AREA DEPARTING AT 22/1600Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
WVW

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for Igor September 19

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 18 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-110

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800,20/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0611A IGOR
C. 19/1445Z
D. 30.0N 65.3W
E. 19/1630Z TO 20/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Watch Net Active for Igor

The Hurricane Watch Net on 14325 kHz USB has activated for dissemination of National Hurricane Center advisories and reception of weather observations from Bermuda. The eye of Igor is currently about 100 miles from the island, with wind about to become hurricane force. Sustained wind speed has dropped to category one, but tropical storm force extends out for a very long distance.

The Weather Channel is showing live reports from Jim Cantore and a storm chaser, both of whom are in Bermuda.

Control of the Hurricane Watch Net is currently KA5E in Texas.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for Igor September 17-18

[Allan Stern heard several MARS patches yesterday from TEAL 78, a "Hurricane Hunter" WC-130, on 13927 kHz.]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115AM EDT FRI 17 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-109

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0411A IGOR
C. 18/1330Z
D. 26.2N 63.8W
E. 18/1530Z TO 18/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0511A IGOR
C. 19/0100Z
D. 27.9N 64.8W
E. 19/0330Z TO 19/0700Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES..

3. REMARKS: MISSION ON KARL FOR 18/00Z AND 18/06Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1315Z. NO RESEARCH FLIGHTS
SCHEDULED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings September 17-18

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161400 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 16 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-108 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM KARL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 78
A. 18/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0613A KARL
C. 17/2100Z
D. 21.0N 96.7W
E. 17/2330Z TO 18/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0211A IGOR
C. 17/1345Z
D. 23.2N 61.1W
E. 17/1600Z TO 17/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 18/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A IGOR
C. 18/0215Z
D. 24.7N 62.7W
E. 18/0400Z TO 18/0700Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON IGOR.

4. REMARKS: RESEARCH FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR KARL.
A. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 17/1730Z.
B. THE NASA DC-8 MAY FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 17/1600Z.
C. THE NOAA P-3 WILL FLY A 8 HR MISSION AT 12,000
FT WITH A 17/1500Z TAKEOFF.
D. A NASA WB-57 MAY FLY A 6 HR MISSION BETWEEN
52,000 AND 60,000 FT TAKEOFF AT 17/1700Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Busy TCPOD for 16-17 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151630 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 15 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-107 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM KARL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 16/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0313A KARL
C. 16/0845Z
D. 20.1N 91.7W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
A. 17/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0413A KARL
C. 16/2045Z
D. 20.9N 93.7W
E. 16/2330Z TO 17/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76
A. 17/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0513A KARL
C. 17/0845Z
D. 21.3N 95.2W
E. 17/1130Z TO 17/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0111A IGOR
C. 16/1430Z
D. 21.4N 57.6W
E. 16/1600Z TO 16/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON KARL.
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON IGOR AT 17/1800Z.

4. REMARKS: RESEARCH FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR KARL.
A. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 25 HR MISSION
(FL 58,OO0-65,000) WITH TAKEOFF OF 16/1200Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1730Z.
C. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1800Z.
D. NOAA 42 A P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION AT 12,000
FT WITH A 16/1500Z TAKEOFF.
E. A NASA WB-57 WILL FLY A 6 HR MISSION BETWEEN
52,000 AND 60,000 FT TAKEOFF AT 16/2100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Utility Nerd #2: San Pedro Radio

Don't expect facts here, because I was like 6 years old and don't remember any. My father had a Hallicrafters SX-62A. It had a glass slide rule dial the size of a skate board, full of little dots for all the cities you could tune in.

Mostly he listened to the San Pedro Marine Operator. This was pre-VHF, and pretty antediluvian. The frequency was duplex in the 2 MHz band, with the shore on the high side of the pair and the vessel on the low side.

The call sign shown on old lists is KOU. Modulation was plain old AM, not USB. When the vessel was talking, the shore station filled in with an old-school, pre-DTMF busy signal.

Google turned up exactly two references to the KOU Marine Operator. Both described heroic Old Salts on fishing boats using the miracle of radio to talk to their business people BEFORE they got to shore! Wonder of wonders!

(San Pedro, CA actually had a fishing industry at one time. There were 500 boats and 15 canneries. Now there are maybe 50 boats and no canneries.)

I'm sure business calls happened, but I don't remember them. I remember a bunch of Hollywood types coming back from Catalina Island in pleasure boats. Most of the time they were so hammered it was lucky they could find San Pedro, let alone call it on the radio. All they ever said was that they would be late (just like last week). Don't wait up for dinner (just like last week).

Now, you'd think this would have produced some great on-air marital spats. If there were any, however, they're lost in my brain way down there with First Grade and bad kiddie TV. Here's what I remember:

"Where are you, Honey? Over." (Baap baap baap.)

"OK, we'll eat alone [again]. Nice day out there? Over." (Baap baap baap.)

"WHO fell over the side? Over." (Baap baap baap baap baap baap baap.)

And so it went, in the glamorous world of HF utility. I think I prefer UVB-76.

One Big Ass Hurricane, One Medum Sized Hurricane, One Tropical Storm

1100-Mile-Across Igor Public Advisory

Now-Cat-2 Julia Public Advisory

Right-Off-Yucatan Karl Public Advisory

Weather Flights (or lack thereof) for 15-16 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 14 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-106

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX HURRICANE IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 22.6N 58.6W
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 20N 91W
AT 16/1800Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES OF
HURRICANE IGOR AT 17/1800Z NEAR 25.4N 61.7W.
4. REMARKS: THERE ARE NO KNOWN RESEARCH MISSIONS
SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2.OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Hurricane Igor Public Advisory #23

000
WTNT31 KNHC 132038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 50.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Military Net on 4625 kHz "Buzzer" Frequency

The Buzzer is still gone again, but there is still Russian Military activity on the frequency.

Here is some kind of daily CW net that has a roll call at 1900 UTC, as copied over the Internet UVB-76 blog's stream on September 13. These are tactical callsigns, which change periodically.

Previous operators have sounded pretty good, but this one got flustered, big time.

Here we go:

V
VVVVVV
VVVV V V (error dits)
VSJX DE FIN Q K
R K
KMMN DE F INQ K
R K
8OB5 DE FINQ K
V JIP DE FINQ ---- (possible Cyrillic character, four dahs) (error dits)
VJIP DE FINQ K
R K
E4LU DE FINN (error dits)
E4LEU DE FINQ K
R K
W4YM DE FINQ K
R K
U AR (error dits)
4G9G DE FINQ K
4G9G DE FINQ K
4G9G DE FINQ R K
VDZO DE FINQ R K
L6MM DE (error dits)
L6MM DE FIQ (error dits)
L6MM DE FINO AR (error dits)
L6MM DE FINQ K
O42M DE FINQ K
H (error dits)
L6MHM DE FINQ K (error dits)
L6MM DE FINQ K
O42N DE FINQ K
L6MM DE FINQ K
2X2M DE FINQ K
L6MM L6MM DE FINQ FIN (error dits)
L6MM L6MM L6MM E DE FINQ FINQ K
O42M O42M O42M L (error dits)
O42M O42M O42M DE FINQ J (error dits)
O42M O42M O42M DE FIINNN (error dits)
O42M O42M O42M DE FINQ K (error dits)
O42 (error dits)
O42M O42M O42M DE FINQ FINQ K
R K
[About an 8 minute pause, perhaps to regroup]
[missed-fading]
FINQ R K
[-end of work-]

Monday, September 13, 2010

Weather Flights for 13-14 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131550
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT MON 13 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-105

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 18.0N 84.0W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 15/0245Z
D. 19.0N 86.5W
E. 15/0530Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE
IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 23.5N 58.5W.
4. REMARKS: SEVERAL RESEARCH FLIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
A. THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 14/1200Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 14/1730Z.
C. THE NASA DC-8 MAY FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 14/1900Z.
D. NOAA 43 AND 42 P-3 AIRCRAFT MAY CONTINUE A SERIES
OF MISSIONS BETWEEN 7,000 AND 12,000 FT WITH
TAKEOFFS AT 14/2000Z AND 15/0800Z...RESPECTIVELY.
E. NASA'S WB-57 MAY FLY A MISSION BETWEEN 52,000
AND 60,000 FT DEPARTING AT 14/2000Z.
5. ADDITIONAL REMARK:. AIR FORCE MISSIONS FOR 13/1800Z AND
14/0600

Cat Four Hurricane Igor Public Advisory #20

00
WTNT31 KNHC 130246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR STILL INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

More Voice Messages on UVB-76?

That's what they're saying on the blog. To hear the alleged 4625 kHz Russian communications, go to:

http://uvb-76.blogspot.com/.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Air Recon Taskings September 12-13

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 11 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 12/1145Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 13/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 13/0400Z
D. 16.2N 74.4W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: SEVERAL RESEARCH FLIGHTS ARE PLANNED
FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA.
A. THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1100Z.
B. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24 HR MISSION
ABOVE 58,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1130Z.
C. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1730Z.
D. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1800Z.
E. NOAA 43 AND 42 P-3 AIRCRAFT WILL BEGIN A SERIES
OF MISSIONS BETWEEN 7,000 AND 12,000 FT WITH
TAKEOFFS AT 12/2000Z AND 13/0800Z...RESPECTIVELY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

Friday, September 10, 2010

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 10 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN SUSPECT AREA NEAR 13.5 N AND 63.5 W FOR 12/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING AT 11/1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Thursday, September 09, 2010

Is UVB76 Gone Again?

All channels on the Internet repeater have only static for 4625 kHz. The PVO air defense transmissions at 3 kHz are still there, though much weaker. The Internet link works, though at greatly reduced volume. The Buzzer is simply not there.

???????

Yesterday was quite an interesting day. It is apparent that The Buzzer was using two different transmitters, and maybe two different call signs. It's hard to know for sure. UVB76 is at least a standard international call from Russia's alphabetical block. The other one heard yesterday, MDZhB, is Cyrillic. Cyrillic has appeared in Russian station IDs before, but as tactical calls. So the possibilities are:

Two transmitters, using different call signs.
Two transmitters, one sending a message using a tactical ID.
Two transmitters, both using message-specific tactical IDs.

One interesting possibility is that the second transmitter, which has truly world-spanning capability, was activated specifically for the three messages sent over it, then shut down again. All of this indicates a high degree of human intervention in what was assumed to be an automated transmission, which in turn would indicate that it's more than just an old Cold War system no one ever turned off.

This would tend to support the commonly offered theory that UVB76 is a military alerting station for some kind of command control comms. This would resemble a far less active version of the USA's Emergency Action Message (EAM) broadcasts, which are coded military orders with priority traffic status.

?????????????????

TCPOD for September 9/10

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 09 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14.0N AND 64.0W FOR 11/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY 2 A DAY RESEARCH MISSIONS
DEPARTING AT 10/0900Z AND 1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

The Buzzer IS Back!

Several hours have passed, and the buzzz buzzz buzzz continues. Ary Boender has reported that some of the spurious frequencies detected earlier this year were also briefly active, which would strongly indicate that the same transmitter is in use. This, plus the power changes and intermittent 50-Hz hum would seem to indicate that work on the equipment remains in progress.

Another numbers mailing list member has provided transcripts of the three female Russian voice messages that appeared just as The Buzzer came back up:

MDZHB MDZHB 33560 Trenogiĭ 8606 5944 MDZHB MDZHB 33560 Trenogiĭ 8606 5944 Pryom

MDZHB MDZHB 64009 Arun 0835 3598 Trutnik 5512 1847 MDZHB MDZHB 64009 Arun 0835 3598 Trutnik 5512 1847

MDZHB MDZHB 82366 Pruyanoĭ 6385 9971
MDZHB MDZHB 82366 Prutyanoĭ 6385 9971

The MDZhB at the start might be a station identifier of some type. Russia uses these at times. "Zh" is a Russian character. The call or whatever is МДЖБ. Russia has used Cyrillic characters in call signs before. They were also found on the old CW military intelligence net, in Cyrillic Morse.

Note the lack of phonetic spelling. Could this be a different originating station with a different format, and would this explain the different ID or whatever it is?

But, for now, the evidence is overwhelming that The Buzzer is back. Internet users can take off their foil hats.

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

4625 kHz Fun Continues

Precisely at 1800 UTC, a nasty 50-Hz hum appeared on the Buzzer signal. About half an hour prior to this, the strength of this signal dropped greatly.

Yes, 50 Hz is the power frequency in Russia.

It is definitely not a 60-Hz hum.

Someone else is sending VVVVVVVVV K in Morse, and of course the off-frequency air defense strings continue unabated.

Yet More 4625 kHz

At 1639 UTC, I am tuning on the GlobalTuners receiver in Austria. The upper sideband is definitely much louder than the lower sideband. The difference is about 5 S units, whatever those are on this radio. A carrier is present, and it is on frequency.

Is The Buzzer back? We'll have to wait and see.

More 4625 kHz

Currently (1625 UTC), authentic-sounding AM buzzes and Russian female voice messages are being sent. I'm dubious, but the use of AM mode is interesting. Someone who can tune their radio will have to find out if there is a suppressed lower sideband. I can't tell over the Internet.

Is the Buzzer Back?

I don't think so. At precisely 9:11 AM (hmmmm) Pacific Daylight Time (1611 UTC), the buzzing sound started up again. But it is much louder on the USB stream than the AM one, and since The Buzzer was in upper-sideband, full-carrier mode (H3E), this should not have been the case. Russian test counts and ominous 50-Hz noises are also being broadcast on 4625 at present.

Yesterday had several interesting non-pirate transmissions on this frequency. "F6J6" is a Russian duplex military net with a callup or roll call daily around 1800-2000. The voice message may or may not have been the same agency doing the ones on The Buzzer.

Then there's the intermittent Morse code at 3 kHz, indicating that the station is off-frequency. This has to be the Russian Air Defense (PVO). What you're hearing is an automated system which sends character strings in Morse code, at regular intervals. These have a strict format, in which the first character is a break (BT) and a time stamp appears. This time is local to the Moscow area. The rest of the data is presumably target locations. Missing characters are substituted with a question mark (?). These stations have been on for years.

NOAA Research Tasking September 9

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081430 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 08 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-100 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS:
A. A NOAA P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HR OCEAN SURVEY RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW WITH
TAKEOFF AT 09/1400Z.
B. THE NSF/NCAR G-V RESEARCH MISSION FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

4625 kHz Festivities Continue

Coming up on a week since The Buzzer suddenly went silent, and the pirate fest continues. Check http://uvb-76.blogspot.com/ for the latest.

At 2312 UTC, someone has a loop of The Buzzer and what sounds like classical music.

Earlier, someone was sending waterfall pictures which made Russian characters for a word which can translate as the male reproductive organ.

Real or bootleg military broadcasts continue, in CW. One net control station is on daily at times between 1700 and 2000, working stations duplex.

Monday, September 06, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for Gaston Remnants 7 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 06 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF GASTON
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 07/1800, 08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A GASTON
C. 07/1700Z
D. 17.5N 63.5W
E. 07/1730Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0409A GASTON
C. 08/0500Z
D. 17.0N 66.0W
E. 08/0530Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
STILL A THREAT.

3. REMARKS:
A. THE NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO
INTO THE REMNANTS GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING
AT 07/1230Z.
B. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY A 10 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO
REMNANTS OF GASTON BETWEEN 35,OOO AND 39,000 FT.
DEPARTING 07/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings for Gaston Remnants 6 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 05 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNENTS OF GASTON
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/1800, 07/0000Z A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0108A GASTON B. AFXXX 0208A GASTON
C. 06/1600Z C. 07/0415Z
D. 17.0N 57.0W D. 17.0N 60.0W
E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0000Z E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
A. 06/1600Z A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 06/1300Z C. 07/0300Z
D. 21.0N 96.5W D. 22.0N 97.5W
E. 06/1500Z TO 2200Z E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES ON GASTON.
B. NEGATIVE ON SUSPECT AREA IN GULF.

3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 06/1000Z.
NASA DC-8 WILL FLY A 10 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO
GASTON BETWEEN 35 AND 39,000 FT. DEPARTING 06/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Sunday, September 05, 2010

UVB76 Leaves Air, Human Species Survives

There's been a lot of Internet buzz surrounding UVB76, the supposed call sign of a mysterious, Russian station whose marker is The Buzzer (formerly XB, now S38). It's usually on 4625 kHz. Conspiracy sites have gone crazy since it broadcast a voice message on August 25, and then left the air shortly before 0000 UTC on September 1.

Right now, the only verifiable fact is that the station is still off-air, except maybe for a weak carrier. There have been a lot of pirate transmissions, some of which indicated a familiarity with the "numbers" hobby. A couple of these even addressed two well known Internet mailing list members, by name.

Mary Villano in L.A. reports that even "Adult Swim," a Cartoon Channel program block after the kiddies are in bed, did a bumper with a scope screen type of graphic and words about how UVB76 was off-air and we should all be afraid. This is fun stuff.

Also interesting is the very dark cloud shadow on Google Earth over what is purported to be the UVB76 transmitter building. It's almost as if the site was deliberately redacted. If the surrounding area wasn't more dank than a gloomy Russian novel, and if the images weren't from 2009 and earlier, even I might think someone said something. But I don't. It's just more strangeness from a seemingly endless source of same.

We'll try to sort all this out in the November column. I don't usually advertise, but you'll want to read THIS one.

Friday, September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory #37

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031458
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Air Recon Non-Taskings for 4 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
11OO AM EDT FRI 03 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory #33A

000
WTNT32 KNHC 021745
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Air Recon Taskings for Earl/ Fiona 3 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
12OO PM EDT THU 02 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE EARL
FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 78
A. 04/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1707A EARL
C. 03/2015Z
D. 40.0N 70.8W
E. 03/2330Z TO 04/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 04/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 1807A EARL
C. 04/0715Z
D. 44.0N 67.0W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


2. TROPICAL STORM FIONA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0508A FIONA
C. 03/1900Z
D. 31.3N 65.7W
E. 03/2130Z TO 04/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
4. REMARKS:
A. NOAA P-3'S WILL CONTINUE MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS
WITH TAKEOFFS AT 03/0800Z AND 03/1200Z....OPERATING
AT 12,000 FT.
B. NCAR G-V WILL DEPART AT 03/1230Z FOR A MISSION
INTO GASTON.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory #29A

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Air Recon Taskings for Hurricane Earl 2 September

The skies are filled with hurricane aircraft!
-----

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011615
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT WED 01 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE EARL
FLIGHT 0NE -- NOAA 49
A. 02/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1307A EARL
C. 02/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 02/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 1407A EARL
C. 02/1200Z
D. 30.5N 75.0W
E. 02/1430Z TO 02/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 78
A. 03/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1507A EARL
C. 02/2030Z
D. 32.8N 75.2W
E. 02/2330Z TO 03/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 76
A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 1607A EARL
C. 03/0845Z
D. 36.0N 73.6W
E. 03/1130Z TO 03/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. TROPICAL STORM FIONA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0408A FIONA
C. 03/0915Z
D. 26.9N 67.1W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON EARL.
A POSSIBLE 04/0600Z FIX ON FIONA.
4. REMARKS:
A. NOAA P-3'S WILL CONTINUE FLYING EVERY 12 HRS INTO EARL
WITH TAKOFFS AT 0800Z AND 2000Z.OPERATING AT 12K.
B. NASA DC-8 WILL T.O.NEAR 02/1600Z FOR 8 HRS IN EARL.
C. NASA GLOBAL HAWK DEPARTS 02/0400Z FOR 24 HR OVER EARL.
D. NASA WB-57 DEPARTS 02/200Z FOR 6 HRS IN EARL.
E. NCAR G-V DEPARTS 02/1000Z FOR 6 HRS IN FIONA.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Major Hurricane Earl Public Advisory #27

000
WTNT32 KNHC 010243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF EARL...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 67 MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN