Tuesday, November 30, 2010

North Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends Today

November 30 is the formal end of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Though the calendar says so, the hurricanes don't always notice. Witness the imfamous 2005 season, when they continued well into December, using Greek letters because the names were exhausted.

2010 was actually a very busy hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Fortunately, there were no major landfalls on US soil.

The TCPOD (Tropical Cyclone Plan Of the Day) is replaced by a WSPOD (Winter Storm Plan Of the Day) unless a TCPOD is needed for aerial weather recon tasking. The same WWW links work for both.

---

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EST TUE 30 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-182

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THIS WILL BE THE LAST TCPOD OF THE
YEAR UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT OTHERWISE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Monday, November 29, 2010

Netherlands WebSDR Update Nov. 29

Here's the latest from the ham radio club at the U. of Twente, Netherlands, concerning the return of their WebSDR to service:

Update 26 November:

We're back -- well, somewhat.
Over the past couple of weeks, we have moved all our stuff to our new club room (although much of it still has to be unpacked), and since yesterday, we have an internet connection there.
Unfortunately though, we do not yet have any possibilities for feeding an antenna cable through the wall. It is also still very unclear how long it will take until it this will be arranged.

Background:

Since Wednesday November 3, this WebSDR receiver has been offline. This is because the radio club at the University of Twente, where this receiver is hosted, had to move to a new building, along with the entire department of electrical engineering. We knew this was coming and we were busy preparing the move (dismantling our antennas, packing our equipment, etc.). On October 29 we were told that we had to empty the old room by November 4, which is earlier than we expected. That's why we could not announce this more in advance, and could not make the transition smooth by first preparing the new room.

73, Pieter-Tjerk, PA3FWM (e-mail about this topic: qrt AT websdr.org)

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Denice Stoops Ships Out!

Denice Stoops worked at KPH when the station closed for commercial traffic. She was the first, and to my knowledge only, female Morse telegrapher at this station. She recently decided to get back into the business via the US sealift command, and after training she is shipping out. This comes from Richard Dillman of MRHS:

Our very own Ms. Denice Stoops has completed training and been assigned to MSC ship USNS Wally Schirra (T-AKE-8). She's on her way to meet the ship in San Diego, CA. See details and more photos in the "Denice's Excellent Adventure" section of our Web site. And join us in wishing her fair winds and following seas...

VY 73 ES BV,

RD

I also wish her the best!

Happy Thanksgiving from Utility World.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Netherlands WebSDR Unavailable Until Further Notice

If you're wondering where the University of Twente, Netherlands WebSDR online software defined radio has been the past few weeks, the answer is here.

The problem is that the university radio club is moving to a new room, making the equipment unavailable.

The same link has a list of other online SDRs that are worth checking out.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Did You REALLY Think There'd Be A TEAL 70?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST FRI 19 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-171

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: THE TASKING FOR 19/1800Z WAS CANX BY
NHC AT 19/0130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Will TEAL 70 Finally Get A Go?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST THU 18 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WEATERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 19/1430Z
D. 17.0N AND 87.0W
E. 19/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Give Us This Day Our Daily TEAL 70 Cancelation

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171620
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EST WED 17 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-169

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 17/2100Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 16/2330Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

New York VOLMET Is Back

Listeners in the US and Europe are reporting New York Radio back on-air with VOLMET on the usual frequencies of 3485, 6604, 10051, and 13270 kHz USB. It's currently weak/readable here in SoCal with fading on 13270 at 1908 UTC.  Looks like it finished its maintenance early, unless this is just testing.

Another Day, Another Teal 70 Cancellation (TCPOD)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 16 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-168

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1645Z
D. 14.0N 82.0W
E. 17/2030Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
18/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 16/2100Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 16/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Solar Flux Reaches 91

In this cycle, we'll take whatever the sun gives us.  Usually 90 is where you start to hear a real effect on HF, and yesterday some long transpacific paths were working well around 21-22 MHz.  Today seems somewhat disturbed by comparison.

Buzzer "UVB-76" Up Again on 4625

Good/readable signal, with heavy fading, into the web repeater's receiver somewhere in Europe at 16/1858 UTC.  Band conditions seem to have deteriorated somewhat.

The buzz is same as always, except for a slow warble at maybe twice per second.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for November 16-17

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151415 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EST MON 15 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-167 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 16/1600Z
D. 14.0N AND 79.0W
E. 16/2000 TO 16/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
17/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 15/1055Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings for November 15-16

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SUN 14 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-166

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 15/1315Z
D. 12.5N AND 79.0W
E. 15/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24 HRLY FIXES AT 16/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Carnival Splendor ops on COTHEN

The US Coast Guard High-Endurance Cutter Morgenthau, a ship which recently returned to service from its base in Alameda, CA, and which was known to be on-scene with the distressed cruise ship Carnival Splendor, has been heard here sounding on the COTHEN net, frequency of 8912 kHz USB ALE, at 2322 UTC on 9 November.

The signal was much louder in Southern California than usual for COTHEN players. The Los Angeles Times has reported that Morgenthau is escorting the cruise ship as she is towed into port by two Mexican tugs.

The Carnival Splendor went dead in the water on 8 November, after a fire disabled the main generators.

Saturday, November 06, 2010

4625 kHz Buzzer Up Today

On the Internet reflector right now (2118 UTC) with QRM from an off-frequency broadcast.

Friday, November 05, 2010

Tomas Night Frequency is 3737 kHz LSB

This 80 meter frequency was just given as where the emergency work will be tonight.  The Hurricane Watch Net is still active on 14325.  One first-hand report came over the air from Cap Hatien.

Hurricane Tomas Public Advisory #31


000
WTNT31 KNHC 052035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

STS-133 Delayed Until At Least Nov. 30

NASA has called off any possible launch of STS-133 in this window. The next opportunity is November 30, at 0405 EST (0905 UTC).

While the tank was being drained of its cryogenic fuel following discovery of the hydrogen leak, a crack developed in the foam. This will require further examination.

The astronauts have returned to Houston.

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 6-7

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 05 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-157

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. HURRICANE TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA  43
        A. 06/1200Z
        B. NOAA3 2121A TOMAS
        C. 06/0800Z
        D. 23.1N 72.1W
        E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z
        F. 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
       A. 07/0000Z
       B. NOAA2 2221A TOMAS
       C. 06/2000Z
       D. 25.1N 71.0W
       E. 06/2200Z T0 07/0200Z
       F. 10,000 FT


     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
     3. REMARKS: NOAA P-3 MISSION WITH AN 05/2000Z SCHEDULED
        TAKEOFF HAS BEEN CANCELED.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
                       JWP

Hydrogen Leak Scrubs STS-133

Once again, a hydrogen leak discovered during tanking has forced a launch scrub.

NASA:

Managers Schedule 11 a.m. EDT Meeting to Discuss Scrub Turnaround Options
Fri, 05 Nov 2010 07:25:58 AM PDT

Space shuttle managers and engineers will meet at 11 a.m. EDT to discuss the work necessary to repair a gaseous hydrogen leak and prepare space shuttle Discovery for its next launch attempt.

The earliest opportunity is Monday, Nov. 8, at 12:53 p.m. EST, the last date Discovery can launch in this window. The next launch window for Discovery is Tuesday, Nov. 30 through Saturday, Dec. 5.

At 8:11 a.m., launch was scrubbed because of a hydrogen gas leak at the Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate, or GUCP, an attachment point between the external tank and a 17-inch pipe that carries gaseous hydrogen safely away from Discovery to the flare stack, where it is burned off.

Shuttle launch director Mike Leinbach characterized the leak as “significant,” similar to what was seen on STS-119 and STS-127, although today’s rate was higher in magnitude and occurred earlier in the fueling process.

The external tank is being drained and will be inerted for about 20 hours before it is safe for technicians to look at the GUCP on Saturday.

The Space Shuttle Program Mission Management Team will meet Saturday after technicians have had the opportunity to troubleshoot the hardware. The MMT will determine if it is possible to achieve a launch attempt Monday.

NASA Television will air a news conference no earlier than 1 p.m. EDT with Mike Moses, Space Shuttle Program launch integration manager and Mission Management Team chair, and Mike Leinbach, shuttle launch director.

Solar: Stand By For Action!

An energetic, flaring region has just become visible to Earth in its rotation on the Sun's surface. Propagation disturbances, and hopefully some higher solar fluxes, are likely.

HWN Up on 14325 kHz

Current net control of the Hurricane Watch Net is W5LK with a great signal. He is looking for observations from Haiti or other affected areas in Cuba, the Bahamas, or the Turks and Caicos.

He reports that Tomas is currently a tighly wound hurricane whose center is transiting the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

T.S. Tomas Public Advisory #26

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.. MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 5-6


000
NOUS42 KNHC 041515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT THU 04 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-156

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 05/1800,06/0000Z
        B. AFXXX 1921A TOMAS
        C. 05/1530Z
        D. 20.6N 73.9W
        E. 05/1730Z TO 06/0000Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
          A. 06/0000Z
         B. NOAA2 2021A TOMAS
                  C. 05/2000Z
               D. NA
     E. 05/2200Z T0 06/0200Z
          F. 12,000 FT

        FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
        A. 06/0600,1200Z
        B. AFXXX 2121A TOMAS
        C. 06/0330Z
        D. 23.0N 72.9W
        E. 06/0530Z TO 06/1200Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
     3. REMARKS: NOAA P-3 MISSION WITH AN 05/0800Z SCHEDULED
        TAKEOFF HAS BEEN CANCELED BY THE CUSTOMER.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
                       JWP

Weather Delays STS-133 At Least Until Friday

NASA:

Shuttle Launch Attempt Delayed for Weather
Thu, 04 Nov 2010 03:08:24 AM PDT

Managers will delay Discovery’s launch for 24 hours due to weather. Mission managers will meet tomorrow at 5 a.m. [EDT] to reevaluate the weather conditions. Friday’s launch attempt would be at 3:04 p.m. EDT.  [1904 UTC]

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

STS-133 Count Resumes for Thursday Launch

The Mission Management Team briefing has just announced that the STS-133 count has resumed.  Weather is still doubtful for a launch Thursday afternoon, but the plan is to count down until the time for loading fuel approaches, then assess the weather at that point.

The Rotating Service Structure move was delayed by lightning.  It will take place shortly.  NASA TV coverage begins Thursday morning (EDT).

New York VOLMET Will Return; CFH FAX May Not

A recent Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) states that the New York VOLMET transmission on 3485.0, 6604.0, 10051.0, and 13270.0 kHz is off-air for transmitter maintenance. It is scheduled to return in mid-November.

The current situation is unlike the previous outage in 2007-2008, when the station simply ran out of money and left the air for some long periods of time, with no public notice at all.

In September, a listener reported on the UDXF mailing list that he had copied a message announcing the impending termination of all HF radiofacsimile and radioteletype broadcasts from the Canadian Forces METOC Centre. These originated from CFH, Canadian Forces Halifax, in Nova Scotia, on the assigned carrier frequencies of 4271.0, 6496.4, 10536.0, and 13510.0 kHz.

Hours of listening here produced no confirmation that this message had been sent. In addition, endless Internet searches turned up absolutely nothing.

As of November, however, all four frequencies are silent. It is not known whether this is temporary or permanent.

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 4-5

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 03 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800,05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1621A TOMAS
C. 04/1500Z
D. 16.1N 75.9W
E. 04/1730Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 05/0000Z
B. NOAA2 1721A TOMAS
C. 04/2000Z
D. NA
E. 04/2200Z T0 05/0300Z
F. 12,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1821A TOMAS
C. 05/0330Z
D. 17.4N 75.2W
E. 05/0530Z TO 05/1200Z
F. SFRC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 43
A. 05/1200Z
B. NOAA3 1921A TOMAS
C. 05/0800Z
D. NA
E. 05/1000Z TO 05/1500Z
F. 12,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: WC-130S CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE P-3 TAKEOFF AT 05/2000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

STS-133 Launch Delayed at Least 24 Hours

NASA:


MMT to Meet Wednesday on Electrical Issues
Tue, 02 Nov 2010 04:21:01 PM PDT

The Prelaunch Mission Management Team wants to give engineers more time to look deeply into two electrical issues from a main engine computer controller that cropped up this morning. Therefore, the launch of space shuttle Discovery on STS-133 has been delayed until at least Thursday. Mike Moses, chair of the MMT, said the problems are believed to be tied to a circuit breaker in the shuttle's cockpit.

Rather than rush the shuttle launch team through an analysis and launch cycle quickly, Moses said he opted to let the engineers work throughout the night on the issue without having to worry about an early morning tanking and Wednesday afternoon launch. The MMT will meet again Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT and then decide whether to try to launch Thursday. A liftoff Thursday would be at 3:29 p.m. [1929 UTC]

A launch on Thursday is problematic due to a weather front moving into the KSC region. Weather will have a much higher chance of preventing launch.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

STS-133 Count Continues

STS-133 is currently in a scheduled hold at T-11 hours.  The Rotating Service Structure will be removed during this hold.

Launch remains on-schedule for 3:52 p.m. EDT (1952 UTC) tomorrow (Wednesday).  Weather shows only a 30 per cent chance of violating constraints.

Monday, November 01, 2010

Air Recon Taskings (and Cancellations) for November 1-3

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 01 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-153

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0821A TOMAS
C. 02/1430Z
D. 13.9N 72.7W
E. 02/1630Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0921A TOMAS
C. 03/0230Z
D. 14.1N 73.7W
E. 03/0430Z TO 03/0830Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS STILL VIABLE.

3. REMARKS: TASKINGS FOR 01/1800Z AND 02/0600Z ON TCPOD
10-152 WILL BE FLOWN, BUT TASKINGS FOR 01/1200Z AND
02/0000Z CANCELED BY NHC.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP