Sunday, August 28, 2011

Hurricane Irene Advisory #30A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 272253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WATER LEVELS RISING IN THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Hurricane Irene Advisory #29A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 271803
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Air Recon Tasking for Irene 8/27-28

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 27 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z,21OOZ
B. AFXXX 3609A IRENE
C. 28/1415Z
D. 42.3N 70.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: ALL REMANING P-3 FLIGHTS CANCELED BY
BY NHC AT 27/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDIND DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

COTHEN and FEMA ALE 8/26-27 (UTC)

8/26-27:

COTHEN:
006, 07Z, 702, 708, 720, ABQPRI, D07, D23, D47, F04, I86, I96, J01, J21, J24, LNT, N07, N08, N09, PAC, ROS, SLKNY, VAI, Z35

4522.0, 5732.0, 7527.0, 8912.0, 10242.0, 11494.0, 12222.0, 13312.0, 13907.0, 14582.0, 15867.0, 18594.0, 20890.0, 23214.0, 25350.0

FEMA:
FC0FEM, FC1FEM, FR1FEM, FR3FEM, FC4FEM, FC4FEM004, FR4FEM, FR5FEM, FC6FEM, FC8FEM, FC8FEM002, FC8FEM006, FM8FEM, FR9FEM, FCXBCU1 (10493)

4603.0, 4780.0, 7348.0, 9462.0, 10194.0, 10493.0 (FCXBCU1), 10588.0, 12216.0, 13446.0, 14776.0, 14885.0, 15708.0, 16201.0, 16353.0, 19969.0, 21866.0, 24526.0

Hurricane Irene Discussion #27

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000 FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.

RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION... COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Irene Advisory #26

000
WTNT34 KNHC 262047
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND... BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H... AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

Friday, August 26, 2011

Hurricane Irene Advisory #25A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261756
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Air Recon Taskings for Irene 8/27-28

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261645
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT FRI 26 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/15Z,18Z,21Z
B. AFXXX 3309A IRENE
C. 27/1200Z
D. 34.9N 76.4W
E. 27/1430Z TO 27/21Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 28/00Z
B. NOAA2 3409A IRENE
C. 27/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/00Z,03Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 3509A IRENE
C. 27/2030Z
D. 36.7N 75.6W
E. 27/2330Z TO 28/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 28/09Z,12Z,15Z
B. AFXXX 3609A IRENE
C. 28/0645Z
D. 38.8N 74.5W
E. 28/0830Z TO 28/15Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43
A. 28/12Z
B. NOAA3 3709A IRENE
C. 28/08Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 27/12Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 26/15Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP

Irene Preparation Status

Governors of MA and PA have declared states of emergency.

Motorists can check road conditions on state roads by calling 511 or visiting www.511PA.com. Available 24 hours a day, the number provides traffic delay warnings, weather forecasts, average traffic speeds on urban interstates and access to more than 500 traffic cameras. Regional Twitter alerts are also available on the 511PA website.

New York City has ordered mandatory evacuations of some coastal areas. All public transit in NYC will shut down at noon Saturday, Eastern time. This includes commuter trains. Similar shutdowns are scheduled in at least Philadelphia and all of NJ.

US Navy is moving ships to safer areas at sea. US Army is evacuating a base in VA.

The amateur Hurricane Watch Net will activate at 0630 Eastern on Saturday. Frequencies are 14325 (day) and 7268 LSB (night). Some kind of storm related activity is taking place right now on 14325, too weak to identify here.

Allan Stern is hearing TEAL "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft from the USAF Reserve 53rd Weather Recon. VHF and 6577.0 kHz USB.

Add @DC_HSEMA to the links list.

CT, DE Declare States of Emergency

08/25/2011 08:15 PM
This brings the list to CT, DE, MD, NC, NJ, NY, and VA.

CT:
August 25, 2011
GOV. MALLOY SIGNS DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY

(HARTFORD, CT) – In advance of Hurricane Irene’s likely impact on Connecticut, Governor Dannel P. Malloy today signed a Declaration of Emergency this afternoon. The Declaration of Emergency provides Governor Malloy with a number of emergency powers, including:

The ability to order evacuations of all or part of the population of a stricken or threatened area and take necessary steps for receipt and care of evacuees

The ability to modify or suspend any state statute, regulation, or requirement (for example: altering work hours, waiving licensing requirements, etc.)

The ability to order civil preparedness forces into action

The ability to designate vehicle and person routes and movements

“The forecast path of Hurricane Irene has convinced me that the signing of this declaration is necessary, and will help us react more quickly and effectively in the event of a serious weather event,” said Governor Malloy. “I will continue to work with state and local officials and authorities to ensure that our state is as prepared as possible for Hurricane Irene, and can react as efficiently as possible on behalf of our residents.”

For Immediate Release: August 25, 2011
Contact: Colleen Flanagan
Colleen.Flanagan@ct.gov
860-524-7308 (office)
860-770-8090 (cell)

Twitter: @GovMalloyOffice
Facebook: Office of Governor Dannel P. Malloy

DE:
All Counties
Special Travel Alert

AS OF 6 PM (8/25/11) A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF DELAWARE AND GOV MARKELL HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS (NON-RESIDENTS) ALONG DELAWARE'S COASTAL AREAS AND IS STRONGLY URGING RESIDENTS WITH THE ABILITY TO LEAVE BEACH COMMUNITIES TO DEPART AS SOON AS PRACTICALLY POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE IRENE, MANDATORY EVACUATIONS OF COASTAL AREA RESIDENTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene Advisory #22

000
WTNT34 KNHC 252051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Air Recon Taskings for Irene 8/26-27

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/12Z,15Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 2709A IRENE
C. 26/0915Z
D. 29.5N 77.8W
E. 26/1130Z TO 26/18Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 27/00Z
B. NOAA9 2809A IRENE
C. 26/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 26/21Z,27/00Z,03Z
B. AFXXX 2909A IRENE
C. 26/18Z
D. 31.0N 77.6W
E. 26/2030Z TO 27/03Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 27/00Z
B. NOAA2 3009A IRENE
C. 26/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 73
A. 27/06Z,09Z,12Z
B. AFXXX 3109A IRENE
C. 27/0315Z
D. 32.4N 77.3W
E. 27/0530Z TO 27/12Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 49
A. 27/12Z
B. NOAA9 3209A IRENE
C. 27/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT SEVEN -- NOAA 43
A. 27/12Z
B. NOAA3 3309A IRENE
C. 27/08Z
D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES,
P-3 MISSIONS CONTINUE EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP

Hurricane Irene Advisory #21A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Irene Link List #2

Unsorted:
#Irene
#Hurricane
#Ireneageddon
#RedCross
@wunderground

FEMA:
@fema/irene
@femaregion4
http://www.citizencorps.gov
@Citizen_Corps

ARRL:
http://www.arrl.org/irene
@ARRL


DE:
http://deldot.gov
@DelawareDOT

MD:
#Mdhurricane

NC:
http://ncdot.gov
http://news14weather.blogspot.com/
@news14raleigh
@LeeRingerNews14

NY:
@NYSEMO

NYC:
http://gis.nyc.gov/oem/he/index.htm
@NotifyNYC

SC:
South Carolina EMD
http://www.scemd.org
@EMDSC

Irene Web/ Twitter Addresses

Web links are given first. The twitter accounts with the @ sign are second. Twitter is a fast way to get a lot of information, almost too much. TweetDeck can scroll this in real time, often faster than you can read it.

State emergency management authorities:

CT:
CT DEMHS
http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp
@CTDEMHS

DE:
Delaware EMA
http://www.dema.delaware.gov
@DelawareEMA

MA:
Mass EMA
http://www.mass.gov/mema
@MassEMA
MA DOT
http://transportation.blog.state.ma.us/blog/
@MassDOT
City of Boston OEM
http://www.cityofboston.gov/readyboston
@Ready_Boston
http://on.fb.me/readyboston

ME:
Maine EMA
http://www.maine.gov/mema
@MaineEMA

MD:
Maryland Emergency Mgmt. Agency
http://www.mema.state.md.us
@mema_feeds

NC:
North Carolina Division of Emergency Management
http://www.ncem.org/
NC DOT
http://ncdot.gov
@NCDOT

NJ:
New Jersey OEM
http://www.ready.nj.gov/
http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/
@NJOEM2010
@NJSP
@NJEMSTF

NY:
New York State Emerg Mgmt Ofc
http://www.semo.state.ny.us
@NYSEMO
NYC
http://www.NYC.gov
@NYCMayorsOffice

PA:
Pennsylvania EMA
http://www.pema.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/pema_home/4463
https://www.webeoc.state.pa.us/eoc7/
Philadelphia OEM
http://www.phila.gov/ready
@PhilaOEM
Pittsburgh OEMHS
http://www.city.pittsburgh.pa.us/ps/html/emerg_mgt.html
@PittsburghOEMHS

RI:
Rhode Island EMA
http://www.riema.ri.gov
@RhodeIslandEMA

VA:
Virginia Department of Emergency Management
http://www.vaemergency.gov
@VDEM
http://www.vaemergency.com/programs/gis/
@VDEM_GIS
http://vko.va.ngb.army.mil/VirginiaGuard/
@VaGuardPAO

VT:
Vermont Emerg Mgmt
http://www.vemvt.com
@vemvt

WV:
West Virginia Department of Homeland Security & Emergency Mgmt.
http://www.wvdhsem.gov
@WVDHSEM


Federal/Mil:

FEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency
http://www.fema.gov
@FEMA
@CraigatFEMA
@femaregion1
@femaregion2
@femaregion3

NHC
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
@HurricaneAlerts
@NHC_Atlantic

US Coast Guard
http://www.uscg.mil
@uscoastguard
@USCG
http://www.coastguardd5publicaffairs.com
@uscgmidatlantic
http://www.uscgnewengland.com
@USCGNortheast


Private:

American Red Cross
http://www.redcross.org/
@RedCross

Salvation Army
http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/
@SalvationArmyUS

Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com
@TWCBreaking
@JimCantore

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Hurricane Irene Frequency List #1

3122.0 US Coast Guard, safety of flight
3130.0 US Navy FACSFAC Jacksonville, FL "Sea Lord"
3171.4 Red Cross disaster (F-92)
3573.0 (CW) Carolinas Net
3696.0 (LSB) Bahamas Weather Net
3820.0 (LSB) Maryland Emergency Phone Net
3865.0 (LSB) West Virginia Emergency Net
3907.0 (LSB) Coastal Carolina Emergency Net Dy 0000
3910.0 (LSB) Regional Emergency Primary Channel:
3913.0 (LSB) NY State
3915.0 (LSB) South Carolina Emergency/Traffic Nets
3915.0 (LSB) Massachusetts/Rhode Island
3917.0 (LSB) E Pennsylvania
3923.0 (LSB) North Carolina Evening Net
3923.0 (LSB) Tar Heel Emergency Net (alt 7232)
3927.0 (LSB) North Carolina Morning Net, ARES
3937.0 (LSB) W. Massachusetts
3940.0 (LSB) SATERN Alternate
3947.0 (LSB) Virginia health & welfare (alt 7240)
3950.0 (LSB) National Hurricane Watch, occasional night
3960.0 (LSB) Northeast Coast Hurricane Net
3980.0 (LSB) SE Virginia ARES
3993.5 (LSB) Regional Common Frequency
4003.0 Bahamas Air Sea Rescue, WX broadcasts dy 1100
4125.0 Maritime clg and distress freq, some weather info
4235.0 (Fax) USCG Boston, MA, weather fax, eve/night
4614.5 COTHEN
4780.0 FEMA
5136.4 Red Cross F-93
5141.4 Red Cross F-94
5211.0 National Emergency Coordination Net night primary
5236.0 SHARES Co-ordination Network Ch-1 (night voice primary)
5250.0 COTHEN
5320.0 USCG Groups, Miami, FL, and Portsmouth, VA; CG Auxiliary
5402.0 FEMA
5422.5 USCG Auxiliary
5696.0 USCG air-ground/safety of flight
5732.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
5821.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-14"
5901.0 SHARES National Net (Night Alt)
5909.5 COTHEN
6106.0 FEMA
6800.0 SHARES Coordination Network (PACTOR BBS)
6809.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-21"
6859.5 Red Cross F-95
7096.0 (LSB) Bahamas Weather Net
7232.0 (LSB) Tar Heel Emergency Net (Alt)
7243.0 (LSB) SC Emergency Net
7245.0 (LSB) NY State RACES
7250.0 (LSB) Salvation Army SATERN Sat 1700
7255.0 (LSB) East Coast Amateur Radio Svc (ECARS)
7260.0 (LSB) Virginia Emercency Net (Alt)
7265.8 (LSB) Salvation Army SATERN (Alt) Sat 1630
7275.0 (LSB) Georgia
7348.0 FEMA
7527.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
7550.5 Red Cross F-96 (Primary)
7632.0 SHARES National Coord Net (Night Pri)
7635.0 CAP, National Calling & Emergency
7697.0 Red Cross F-97
8156.0 Royal Bahamas Defence Force (coast guard & police)
8764.0 USCG, Portsmouth, VA, Atlantic WX
8912.0 COTHEN ALE/USB
8933.0 New York LDOC
8983.0 USCG Air-Ground/ Safety of Flight
9064.0 SHARES National Coord Net (Night Alt)
10194.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-25" ALE/USB/LSB
10242.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
10493.0 National Emergency Coordination Net day primary
10588.0 FEMA /USCG/ always busy in hurricanes ALE/USB/LSB
11342.0 New York LDOC
11494.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
11975.0 CAP Voice
12087.0 National Guard Net ALE/USB
12216.0 FEMA
12222.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
12290.0 USCG calling/watchkeeping (Simplex)
13312.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
13446.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-36" various modes
13907.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
13956.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-48", some NECN use (USB/LSB)
14260.0 UN Net
14265.0 Salvation Army SATERN Net Primary M-F 1400
14268.0 UN Radio Readiness Group
14270.0 Red Cross Net
14283.0 UN Relief Net
14293.0 Red Cross use
14300.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net Dy 1600
14300.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1600/1700
14300.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net (daily)
14300.0 Intercontinental Net
14303.0 ARRL International Assistance & Traffic Net
14310.0 Maritime Emergency Net dy 0400
14313.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net Alternate-1
14313.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1600
14325.0 Hurricane Watch Net, primary fq,
14327.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1700/1800
14340.0 Maritime Emergency Net dy 0400 & 1800
14396.5 SHARES National Coord Net (Day Primary)
14450.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-41," evac heard here
14567.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-39," NECN primary in past
14582.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
14776.0 FEMA
14836.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-43"
14902.0 SHARES - CAP rescue and relief, all regions
15088.0 USCG Air-Ground safety of flight
15867.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
17314.0 USCG, Portsmouth, VA, Atlantic WX 1715
18594.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
20890.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
21400.0 Transatlantic net (amateur)
21400.0 Atlantic Maritime Net
23214.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
25350.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN

COTHEN (Customs Over-The-Horizon Enforcement Network) is an interagency ALE and follow-on voice network used by USCG, ICE, CBP, and several other agencies. Much of the rescue and emergency traffic has migrated there.

14325 kHz USB Hurricane Watch Net Activates

The US Hurricane Watch Net activated for Irene at 24/1300 August UTC on its usual frequency of 14325 kHz USB. Several stations in the southeastern US have shared net control duties. Right now, they have finished passing Advisory #18, and they are looking for stations in the Bahamas with information.

Irene is on a track right up the US East Coast, meaning a few miles/km of uncertainty can cause a great difference in where landfall ultimately comes, if it ever does. Also, the storm is becoming wide, with (currently) a ~60 mile radius of hurricane force winds. At this point, just about the whole US coast from SC up to ME has to watch this storm carefully. That's a BIG area.

Dangerous Hurricane Irene Advisory #18

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN THE BAHAMAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Cat 3 Hurricane Irene Advisory #17

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Air Recon Taskings for Irene 8/25-26

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 24 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 25/18Z,21Z,26/00Z
B. AFXXX 2109A IRENE
C. 25/1430Z
D. 26.1N 76.5W
E. 25/1730Z TO 26/00Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 26/00Z
B. NOAA9 2209A IRENE
C. 25/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42
A. 26/00Z
B. NOAA2 2309A IRENE
C. 25/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 75
A. 26/03Z,06Z,09Z
B. AFXXX 2409A IRENE
C. 26/2345Z
D. 27.7N 77.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/12Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 26/12Z
B. NOAA9 2509A IRENE
C. 26/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
A. 26/12Z
B. NOAA2 2609A IRENE
C. 26/0800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES,
P-3 MISSIONS CONTINUE EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP

Hurricane Irene Advisory #15A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN


Hurricane Irene Advisory #15

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240258
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

Air Recon Taskings for Irene 8/24-25

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 23 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 24/12Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 1409A IRENE
C. 24/0930Z
D. 22.3N 73.8W
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/18Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 25/00Z
B. NOAA9 1509A IRENE
C. 24/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42
A. 25/00Z
B. NOAA2 1609A IRENE
C. 24/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 73
A. 25/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 1709A IRENE
C. 24/2115Z
D. 23.6N 75.2W
E. 24/2330Z TO 25/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 25/12Z
B. NOAA9 1809A IRENE
C. 25/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 71
A. 25/09,12,15Z
B. AFXXX 1909A IRENE
C. 25/0600Z
D. 24.8N 76.0W
E. 25/0830Z TO 25/15Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT SEVEN -- NOAA 42
A. 25/12Z
B. NOAA2 2009A IRENE
C. 25/08Z
D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES,
P-3 AND G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Hurricane Irene Advisory #13A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231754
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AN OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE AT PROVIDENCIALES IN THE CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. STORM SURGE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

Monday, August 22, 2011

Air Recon Taskings for Irene 8/23-24

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221430 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 22 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-083 COR

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 23/12Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 0809A IRENE
C. 23/1015Z
D. 20.5N 71.4W
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 24/00Z
B. NOAA9 0909A IRENE
C. 23/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42
A. 24/00Z
B. NOAAX 1009A IRENE
C. 23/2000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 24/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 1109A IRENE
C. 23/2145Z
D. 21.2N 73.2W
E. 23/2330Z TO 24/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 24/12Z
B. NOAA9 1209A IRENE
C. 24/0530Z
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
A. 24/12Z
B. NOAAX 1309A IRENE
C. 24/08Z
D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES, P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP

Hurricane Irene Discussion #8

000
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Irene Advisory #8A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA