USAF "Zulu" Frequencies are not Dead!

Mentioned today in a military comex:

Z-135 6757.0
Z-160 9057.0
Z-165 26859.0

These are USB voice, and various data modes.

This Blog is not Dead

Just seemed so after Sandy.  Blame hasty travel required by the storm, then a million things to do afterward.

But it lives.

Will Sandy Curve Back Into US?

If it does, it's the first time since regular observation started, but that's what the models keep saying.  The threat of a major disruption is serious enough that we've cut our New York stay short and will be leaving several days early.  This blog will not be active until all these sudden arrangements are complete sometime late this weekend.

14325 kHz, the Hurricane Watch Net, has activated for Sandy in the Caribbean.

Many air reconnaissance flights are being scheduled by NOAA and the USAF Reserve "Hurricane Hunters."

Links remain the same:

Today (scheduled yesterday)
Tomorrow (scheduled today)

While HF is no longer primary, people continue to hear these aircraft on HFGCS or USAF MARS frequencies from time to time.

Irene II?

First, let's say that the reason this blog has had no activity is that I have been in New York City for quite some time, and time at the computer has been limited.

Currently, there is considerable speculation over which day I will be able to go back to L.A., given the current weather forecasts for a historic event.  This blog may turn out to be live from Storm Central -- long as the power holds up -- given the continued results of the European weather model.

Far as Sandy goes, yes, there are many aircraft up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

NOT the Longest EAM Ever

The longest EAM ever, according to people who would know, is much longer.  It is at least 515 characters.  This one was "only" 270.

While it is plausible that a fair number of US military assets required new instructions regarding the security of US diplomatic personnel overseas, any such connection would be sheer speculation.  There is no evidence connecting these special multi-block EAMs with anything extraordinary at all.  We'll probably never know.

Longest USAF EAM Ever?

EAM stands for Emergency Action Message.  They aren't really only for dire national emergencies like nuclear war or terrorism, though they are definitely another way the command structure of the US military would get essential orders out in either of these.

It used to be thought in the more conspiratorially minded parts of the Internet that very long ones would mean a lot of orders going out at once, and indicate that something very large is up.  This has not been shown as the case.  The really long ones come in sections, and in the past they've been related to exercises or unknown situations.

With this, let's note that tonight they sent just possibly the longest one ever.  It was 270 characters long.  (Normal is around 35.)  It took the poor operator at Andrews HF-GCS 23 minutes to get through the required two broadcasts.  He barely made it.  You could hear him trying to catch his breath.

The loudest frequency heard in California was 6739 kHz USB. The broadcast was parallel on other HFGCS channels.  The ones heard here were 8992 and 11175.

Here is the (offline encrypted) text of the EAM Note the sections delimited by 4 repetitions of a letter, which is typical of this particular extended message type:

VXNN7UBAZ5HDGTF2YZLLVJWO QVURW4KHSX3PW7O5ASOCUS7DVJPYRANKR5GGVTVTAXOANKKEEEEBPC5F3ZCACCCX2OX22Y
HHHH4XOIIWRBP2WHIPZIIPK
CCCC7NBNVFAA5F3YCMLLXEN
QQQQ4VFCBEXHQIZORDIZNHPHMU3425PMZKPCFSS2LIJEDKTJ
AAAA3P5RJTQ77UD2I46VS4D
CCCCBUYNM4LJO3LNM3FVMUY
JJJJ3HXRRHWVJWWEBDYYDYG
HHHHJDIB2DL6UM

Hurricane Isaac Discussion #31

000
WTNT44 KNHC 282053
TCDAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO 
ISAAC...WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WIND 
OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED...THE RADAR AND 
SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO 
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS 
BASIS...THE ESTIMATED  INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
INCREASED TO 70 KT.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES 
AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDS 
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 
310/07 KT. ISAAC REMAINS ON TRACK...AND 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO 
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD 
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 
30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS... 
THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO 
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 
HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC 
SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE. 
AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE 
MODELS...ALBEIT TO VARYING 
DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE 
CYCLONE TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS 
NORTHWARD BY DAY 4...AND THEN MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5. 
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A 
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS 
TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
CONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY 
HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE 
TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12 
HOURS...FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES 
ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC 
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE 
LANDFALL OCCURS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF 
THE UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD...RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY 
RAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL 
AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE 
NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON...IT 
IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT 
CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED 
TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 28.7N  89.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 29.4N  90.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 30.3N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 31.3N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 33.0N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 36.0N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH
...INLAND
 96H  01/1800Z 39.0N  90.5W   15 KT  15 MPH
...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z 41.5N  86.5W   15 KT  15 MPH
...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Isaac is a Hurricane!

Aerial recon has found hurricane force wind near the rapidly developing eye of Isaac.  The storm is a hurricane as of 1620 UTC on Tuesday.  Forecast track still comes uncomfortably close to New Orleans, though this storm is more of a rain and wind event than one of catastrophic storm surge.  Still, surge of 6-12 feet is expected, so those in mandatory evacuation areas have been urged by authorities to leave.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281618.shtml

T.S. Isaac Discussion #27

000
WTNT44 KNHC 272058
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092012
400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION 
PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY 
STARTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR 
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE 
AIRCRAFT AND FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 
42003. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS 
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 7 MB SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 74 KT 
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE 
HIGHEST BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS ARE 
NEAR 58 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN 
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

ISAAC WOBBLED WESTWARD THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT A REPRESENTATIVE 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE 
LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION 
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS OVER THE 
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER 48 
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING OF 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG 
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER 
MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC 
REGION...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING 
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND 
ECMWF...OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS... 
NOW HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS 
THROUGH DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THOSE TWO 
MODELS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD 
PATTERN OVER THE CENTER ALONG WITH A 
DEVELOPING EYE IN RECON DATA. 
SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE 
INCREASED TO T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND 
SAB. RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE 
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO 
PULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI. 
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS 
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR STILL 
LURKS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST 
OF THE CDO FEATURE... WHICH COULD BE 
ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE AT ANY 
TIME AND DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT 
PROCESS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY 
AIR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES 
ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE  RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL 
OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS 
THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND 
THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND 
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS 
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT 
FORECAST TRACK. THE SLOW FORWARD 
SPED OF AROUND 5 KT AFTER LANDFALL 
WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD 
SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL 
GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY REGIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 26.4N  86.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 27.4N  87.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 28.6N  89.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 29.5N  90.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  29/1800Z 30.3N  90.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1800Z 32.2N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/1800Z 35.9N  92.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1800Z 38.7N  89.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

T.S. Isaac Wind History

T.S. Isaac Discussion #23

000
WTNT44 KNHC 262102
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES 
HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER 
ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC 
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE 
HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. 
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS 
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THERE IS 
STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM...
AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN 
FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.  INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY
AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...
AND  POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO 
THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT 
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS 
NHC FORECAST.    

ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT 
OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER 
FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED 
MOTION OF 295/15.   THE TRACK FORECAST 
CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING.  THE 
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL 
STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING 
TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK 
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...
THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES 
AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS 
TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE U.K. MET. 
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 
300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT 
LANDFALL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 
NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE  
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL
TRACK.  BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL
SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE 
GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST 
UNCERTAINTY.  

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS 
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST 
UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL 
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND 
WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 24.2N  82.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 25.1N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 26.3N  85.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 27.7N  87.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 28.9N  88.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 30.7N  89.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1800Z 34.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Six Air Recon Flights Tomorrow (27 Aug UTC)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261342
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 26 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-099

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 
    1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC      
       FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76--
       A. 27/1800,2100,28/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 2809A ISAAC
       C. 27/1545Z
       D. 26.8N 85.6W
       E. 27/1730Z TO 28/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
       A. 28/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 2909A ISAAC
       C. 27/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 42--
       A. 28/0000Z
       B. NOAA2 3009A ISAAC
       C. 27/2000Z
       D. 27.4N 86.4W
       E. 27/2200Z TO 28/0200Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--
       A. 28/0300,0600,0900Z
       B. AFXXX 3109A ISAAC
       C. 28/0100Z
       D. 27.5N 86.5W
       E. 28/0230Z TO 28/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE --NOAA42--
       A. 28/1200Z
       B. NOAA2 3209A ISAAC
       C. 28/0800Z
       D. 28.5N 87.6W
       E. 28/1000Z TO 28/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT SIX --TEAL 75--
       A. 28/1200,1500,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 3309A ISAAC
       C. 28/1015Z
       D. 28.5N 87.6W
       E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 3-HRLY FIXES CONTINUE.
       A WP-3 MISSION FOR 28/2000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

T.S. Isaac Discussion #19 (25/2100 AUG UTC)

000
WTNT44 KNHC 252102
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED... WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON 
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18.  
ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A LARGE 
LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS.  
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND 
VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 
24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER WILL 
LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER.  
BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION... THE 
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORM 
COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...
AS THE UKMET IS SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST
MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT 
STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.  AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK
FREE OF OR ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO GRADUALLY 
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER 
THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96
HR.  WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR IS STILL 
RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE 
CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD AT 
LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH 
WHILE THE CYCLONE REACHES OPEN WATER.  
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY 
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE 
FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A VERY 
FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.
SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD ISAAC 
ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE 
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE 
EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE
FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 21.3N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 22.6N  78.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 24.1N  80.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 25.2N  82.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 26.5N  84.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 29.0N  86.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 31.5N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1800Z 33.5N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

7 Hurricane Recon Flights Tomorrow

NHC TCPOD:

000

NOUS42 KNHC 251602

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1200 PM EDT SAT 25 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2012

         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-098

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

  1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

     FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76--

       A. 26/1500,1800,2100Z

       B. AFXXX 2109A ISAAC

       C. 26/1200Z

       D. 23.6N 79.5W

       E. 26/1430Z TO 26/2100Z

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--

       A. 27/0000Z

       B. NOAA9 2209A ISAAC 

       C. 26/1730Z

       D. NA

       E. NA

       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

     FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 42--

       A. 27/0000Z

       B. NOAA2 2309A ISAAC

       C. 26/2000Z

       D. 24.7N 81.3W

       E. 27/0100Z TO 27/0600Z

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--

       A. 27/0000,0300,0600Z

       B. AFXXX 2409A ISAAC

       C. 26/2130Z

       D. 24.7N 81.3W

       E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0600Z

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     FLIGHT FIVE --NOAA49--

       A. 27/1200Z

       B. NOAA9 2509A ISAAC

       C. 27/0530Z

       D. NA

       E. NA

       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

     FLIGHT SIX --TEAL 75--

       A. 27/0900,1200,1500Z

       B. AFXXX 2609A ISAAC

       C. 26/0645Z

       D. 25.6N 82.6W

       E. 27/0830Z TO 27/1500Z

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT SEVEN --NOAA 42--

       A. 27/1200Z

       B. NOAA2 2709A ISAAC

       C. 27/0800Z

       D. 25.9N 83.1W

       E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1400Z

       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT     

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 3-HRLY FIXES CONTINUE.             .

       G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. WP-3 FLYING EVER 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$

JWP

HF Aeronautical Frequencies #11 (21-30 MHz)

21925.0           NP-1/2/3

21926.0           RDARA AFI S

21928.0           ARINC HFDL 09 - Barrow

21928.0           ARINC HFDL 16 - Guam

21931.0           ARINC HFDL 04 - Riverhead

21934.0           ARINC HFDL 01 - San Francisco

21937.0           ARINC HFDL 02 - Molokai

21937.0           ARINC HFDL 09 - Barrow

21940.0           LDOC W 1

21943.0           LDOC W 5

21946.0           LDOC W 1

21949.0           LDOC W 3

21949.0           ARINC HFDL 06 - Hat Yai

21949.0           ARINC HFDL 08 - Johannesburg

21952.0           LDOC W 1

21955.0           LDOC W 4

21955.0           ARINC HFDL 17 - Canarias

21958.0           LDOC W 1

21958.0           LDOC Moscow

21961.0           LDOC W 5

21964.0           NAT-A

21964.0           CEP-2

21964.0           SF LDOC (ARINC, rmt in Barrow)

21964.0           LDOC W 2

21967.0           LDOC W 1

21970.0           LDOC W 3

21973.0           LDOC W 1

21976.0           LDOC W 4

21979.0           LDOC W 1

21982.0           LDOC W 5

21982.0           ARINC HFDL 15 - Al Muharraq

21985.0           CWP 1/2

21985.0           LDOC W 2

21988.0           LDOC W 1

21990.0           ARINC HFDL 14 - Krasnoyarsk

21991.0           LDOC W 4

21994.0           LDOC W 5

21997.0           LDOC W 1

21997.0           Stockholm LDOC

21997.0           ARINC HFDL 13 - Santa Cruz

23040.0           Stockholm LDOC

23210.0           Stockholm LDOC

23337.0           USAF Scope Command ALE

23337.0           USAF Zulu discrete

23872.0           USAF Zulu discrete

24828.0           USAF Zulu discrete

24978.0           USAF Zulu discrete

26532.0           USAF Zulu discrete

26859.0           USAF Zulu discrete

27870.0           USAF Scope Command ALE

HF Aeronautical Frequencies #10 (15-21 MHz)

15024.0           LDOC Moscow

15025.0           ARINC HFDL 03 - Reykjavik

15034.0           Trenton Military Canforce VOLMET

15043.0           USAF Scope Command ALE

15046.0           USAF Zulu discrete

15094.0           USAF Zulu discrete

15097.0           USAF Zulu discrete

15962.0           USAF Zulu discrete

16016.0           USAF GHFS Primary

17901.0           RDARA 12

17901.0           ARINC HFDL 11 - Panama

17904.0           CWP-1/2

17904.0           RDARA 4

17904.0           SP

17907.0           CAR

17907.0           EA-2

17907.0           SAM-1/2

17907.0           SEA-1/3

17910.0           RDARA 10

17912.0           ARINC HFDL 14 - Krasnoyarsk

17913.0           RDARA 6G 13

17916.0           LDOC W 1/3

17916.0           Stockholm LDOC (Primary)

17916.0           ARINC HFDL 05 - Auckland

17916.0           ARINC HFDL 13 - Santa Cruz

17919.0           LDOC W 2/4

17919.0           ARINC HFDL 01 - San Francisco

17919.0           ARINC HFDL 02 - Molokai

17919.0           ARINC HFDL 04 - Riverhead

17919.0           ARINC HFDL 09 - Barrow

17919.0           ARINC HFDL 16 - Guam

17922.0           LDOC W 1/3

17925.0           NY LDOC (ARINC, remote in Bolivia)

17925.0           SF LDOC (ARINC, rmt in Barrow)

17925.0           LDOC W 2/5

17928.0           LDOC W 3/4

17928.0           ARINC HFDL 06 - Hat Yai

17928.0           ARINC HFDL 17 - Canarias

17931.0           LDOC W 1/5

17934.0           LDOC W 2/3

17934.0           ARINC HFDL 09 - Barrow

17937.0           LDOC W 4/5

17940.0           LDOC W 2/3

17940.0           Miami LDOC (Sylvair)

17943.0           RDARA 6

17946.0           NAT-A

17946.0           NP-1/2/3

17946.0           NAT-C/D/F

17946.0           RDARA 14

17949.0           RDARA 5

17952.0           NAT-E

17952.0           RDARA 3

17955.0           SAT-1/2

17955.0           AFI-1

17955.0           RDARA 6B

17958.0           EA-1

17958.0           NCA-1/2/3

17961.0           AFI-2

17961.0           AFI-3/4/5

17961.0           EUR-A

17961.0           INO-1

17961.0           MID-1/2

17964.0           RDARA 2 11B

17967.0           RDARA 5 13A 13B 13E 13F

17967.0           ARINC HFDL 15 - Al Muharraq

17973.0           USAF Zulu discrete

17985.0           ARINC HFDL 03 - Reykjavik

18003.0           USAF Scope Command ALE

18006.0           USAF Zulu discrete

18024.0           USAF Zulu discrete

18027.0           USAF Zulu discrete

18046.0           USAF Zulu discrete

18387.0           USAF Zulu discrete

19665.0           USAF Zulu discrete

19755.0           USAF Zulu discrete

20167.0           USAF Zulu discrete

20407.0           USAF Zulu discrete

20631.0           USAF Scope Command ALE