000
WTNT35 KNHC 301507
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT...
...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Category 4 Hurricane John:
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301435
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
...HURRICANE JOHN NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO.
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES
...260 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...
SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON RECENT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115
KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 2(22)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 25(68) 4(72) 1(73)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 21(38) 2(40) 1(41)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) X(22) 1(23)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 30(44) 26(70) 3(73) 1(74)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 21(40) 2(42) 1(43)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 34(57) 6(63) X(63)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 3(30) X(30)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 8(30) 1(31)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 3(29) 1(30)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 22(44) 4(48) 1(49)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) 1(19)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 15(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 2 18(20) 28(48) 4(52) 4(56) X(56) 1(57)
SAN BLAS 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 2 52(54) 18(72) 2(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76)
P VALLARTA 50 X 14(14) 19(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
P VALLARTA 64 X 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 25 64(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 2 58(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 37(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
MANZANILLO 34 42 46(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
MANZANILLO 50 4 55(59) 2(61) X(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62)
MANZANILLO 64 1 29(30) 1(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
L CARDENAS 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
L CARDENAS 50 42 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
L CARDENAS 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ACAPULCO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 21(22) 47(69) 8(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) 8(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 176N 1036W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 176N 1036W 50 81 8(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
12 176N 1036W 64 60 11(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
24 193N 1056W 34 9 74(83) 6(89) X(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90)
24 193N 1056W 50 1 56(57) 12(69) X(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70)
24 193N 1056W 64 X 36(36) 12(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
36 210N 1073W 34 1 21(22) 52(74) 9(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86)
36 210N 1073W 50 X 4( 4) 41(45) 12(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62)
36 210N 1073W 64 X 1( 1) 27(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41)
48 223N 1087W 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 29(64) 14(78) 2(80) X(80)
48 223N 1087W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 11(48) 2(50) X(50)
48 223N 1087W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30)
72 235N 1115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 32(49) 10(59) 1(60)
72 235N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) X(28)
72 235N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15)
96 240N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) 4(37)
96 240N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
96 240N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
120 240N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13)
120 240N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
120 240N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 125 125 125 120 105 90 75
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
NNNN