000
WTNT31 KNHC 052035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN