Yes, that's right. Before I was able to post the new PCHFDL.DAT file for ARINC HFDL System Table #43, they put out another one... and another one... and another one... (total is five in about a week).
Obviously, there has not been an opportunity to catch up, and so the file will not be uploaded until this settles down. Meanwhile, leave PC-HFDL going on a strong ground station all day, until it sends the table out to somebody. The program will then update itself, and frequencies will replace the numbers.
Also, the changes in all five tables have been very minor. One can still use old lists and spreadsheets to look up freqs manually. A hassle, yes, but it works. Keep in mind that freqs are numbered from the highest down. Yes, that's right. San Francisco is using 21943 (F-1) right now. Gotta love solar peaks.
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
HFDL System Table #43 / 0x002B Is Now Current!
After a long interval with no changes, Aeronautical Radio, Inc (ARINC) has revised the system table used in its High-Frequency Data Link (HFDL) network.
Two updates, numbers 42 and 43, were issued in the space of about one day. Number 43 (2B in hex) is still current at this time.
The system table is a lookup database of all frequencies used by HFDL stations. For our use, it is essential in order to change the numbers passed in HFDL "squitters" to the frequencies in use at a given time. One can look this up manually on a text file or spreadsheet of the system table, but it is far quicker to configure software to do it automatically.
In the case of the most popular program, PC-HFDL, this can be done in two ways. The first is to get lucky, and have PC-HFDL open when the system passes the new frequencies to aircraft. This works for the first few days after a change, before the information finally propagates to all users.
The second, and most practical, procedure is to replace the old pchfdl.dat file in the program's runtime directory. This is done by obtaining the new file from someone who has made the update, usually from web sites or links posted to mailing lists. Then close PC-HFDL if it's open. Find the right directory, rename the existing file to oldpchfdl.dat, and copy in the new one as pchfdl.dat. Then restart PC-HFDL and see if the numbers have changed back to freqs.
The structure of pchfdl.dat is completely bizarre, containing incomprehensible snippets of HFDL decodes. However, it works - most of the time.
The new file will be added to this column's web site as soon as I can obtain and test it. This will probably happen around Thursday. Tomorrow, I'll be on an airplane myself.
Two updates, numbers 42 and 43, were issued in the space of about one day. Number 43 (2B in hex) is still current at this time.
The system table is a lookup database of all frequencies used by HFDL stations. For our use, it is essential in order to change the numbers passed in HFDL "squitters" to the frequencies in use at a given time. One can look this up manually on a text file or spreadsheet of the system table, but it is far quicker to configure software to do it automatically.
In the case of the most popular program, PC-HFDL, this can be done in two ways. The first is to get lucky, and have PC-HFDL open when the system passes the new frequencies to aircraft. This works for the first few days after a change, before the information finally propagates to all users.
The second, and most practical, procedure is to replace the old pchfdl.dat file in the program's runtime directory. This is done by obtaining the new file from someone who has made the update, usually from web sites or links posted to mailing lists. Then close PC-HFDL if it's open. Find the right directory, rename the existing file to oldpchfdl.dat, and copy in the new one as pchfdl.dat. Then restart PC-HFDL and see if the numbers have changed back to freqs.
The structure of pchfdl.dat is completely bizarre, containing incomprehensible snippets of HFDL decodes. However, it works - most of the time.
The new file will be added to this column's web site as soon as I can obtain and test it. This will probably happen around Thursday. Tomorrow, I'll be on an airplane myself.
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
What's on 11190?
Got a report that 11190 kHz has a lot of military traffic. 11191 used to be US Navy fleet comm, but that disappeared years ago. Write this column is you have any info on this.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Interesting Document on USAF HF-GCS Evolution
This link came by way of UDXF.
It's for a .pdf file showing what looks like a PowerPoint presentation regarding the US Air Force's communications on its High Frequency Global Communications System (HF-GCS). The presentation was made by Rockwell/ Collins for a 2010 conference.
Much of the content is maps and charts, and it is best to get this file and look at it.
But here are some interesting facts about the HF-GCS:
1. "F.k.a. SCOPE Command." I take this to mean the SCOPE Command program was indeed an upgrade in HF-GCS, not a separate radio network. [SCOPE was an acronym for System Capable Of Planned Expansion -Hugh.]
2. 13 4 kW ground stations worldwide, with separate tx/rx sites.
3. 2 central control points: NCS-East at Andrews AFB, NCS-West at Grand Forks AFB, ND (under development). [????? GFAFB is currently the 319th Air Base Wing, and is being converted to Global Hawk surveillance drones. -Hugh]
4. The lead command is now the Air Force Space Command. [Again, ?????]
5.The document still shows McLellan (near Sacramento, CA) as "West Coast," even though it does ID as "McLellan." The station in the Falklands is listed as "South Atlantic (UK Station)," and it does not show on the coverage map. It appears to remote to Croughton.
6. Mission list still includes the functions of the previous Mystic Star and SITFAA. Newer capabilities are shown as Link-11 for the US Navy, and support of both test ranges for the Space Command.
7. Circuits between control points and stations are apparently migrating to voice/ audio/ data over IP.
8. It appears that the long range plan includes digital voice and a replacement for ANDVT which would allow end-to-end encryption from telephone to radio back to telephone using a single system.
It's for a .pdf file showing what looks like a PowerPoint presentation regarding the US Air Force's communications on its High Frequency Global Communications System (HF-GCS). The presentation was made by Rockwell/ Collins for a 2010 conference.
Much of the content is maps and charts, and it is best to get this file and look at it.
But here are some interesting facts about the HF-GCS:
1. "F.k.a. SCOPE Command." I take this to mean the SCOPE Command program was indeed an upgrade in HF-GCS, not a separate radio network. [SCOPE was an acronym for System Capable Of Planned Expansion -Hugh.]
2. 13 4 kW ground stations worldwide, with separate tx/rx sites.
3. 2 central control points: NCS-East at Andrews AFB, NCS-West at Grand Forks AFB, ND (under development). [????? GFAFB is currently the 319th Air Base Wing, and is being converted to Global Hawk surveillance drones. -Hugh]
4. The lead command is now the Air Force Space Command. [Again, ?????]
5.The document still shows McLellan (near Sacramento, CA) as "West Coast," even though it does ID as "McLellan." The station in the Falklands is listed as "South Atlantic (UK Station)," and it does not show on the coverage map. It appears to remote to Croughton.
6. Mission list still includes the functions of the previous Mystic Star and SITFAA. Newer capabilities are shown as Link-11 for the US Navy, and support of both test ranges for the Space Command.
7. Circuits between control points and stations are apparently migrating to voice/ audio/ data over IP.
8. It appears that the long range plan includes digital voice and a replacement for ANDVT which would allow end-to-end encryption from telephone to radio back to telephone using a single system.
Solar Observations are Changing Our Vision
This is an exciting time for people who follow solar-terrestrial phenomena. New spacecraft have joined the existing SOHO to give images and insights that were unimaginable even a year ago.
The sun turns out to be an even more interesting place than we knew it was already. Flares are long duration events, not simple explosions. CMEs can generate incredible lacy patterns. They can also now be observed from afar, showing exactly how they reach and engulf the Earth. Sunspots can now be observed while still deep inside the sun, before they reach the surface.
In the short term, CMEs and a coronal hole bode ill for stable HF propagation starting sometime tomorrow, but at least with the equinox coming they'll undoubtedly be great for aurora watchers. Today, though, HF propagation continues to be the best I've heard it in years.
More:
NASA/ESA Solar & Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/soho/index.html
NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/main/index.html
NASA Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/stereo/main/index.html
NASA Video Gallery:
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html
SpaceWeather.com
http://www.spaceweather.com/
The sun turns out to be an even more interesting place than we knew it was already. Flares are long duration events, not simple explosions. CMEs can generate incredible lacy patterns. They can also now be observed from afar, showing exactly how they reach and engulf the Earth. Sunspots can now be observed while still deep inside the sun, before they reach the surface.
In the short term, CMEs and a coronal hole bode ill for stable HF propagation starting sometime tomorrow, but at least with the equinox coming they'll undoubtedly be great for aurora watchers. Today, though, HF propagation continues to be the best I've heard it in years.
More:
NASA/ESA Solar & Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/soho/index.html
NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/main/index.html
NASA Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/stereo/main/index.html
NASA Video Gallery:
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html
SpaceWeather.com
http://www.spaceweather.com/
The Skies Are Full of NOAA/ Teal (TCPOD 9/9-10)
000
NOUS42 KNHC 081600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 08 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-100
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 09/12Z,18Z A. 10/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0214A MARIA B. AFXXX 0314A MARIA
C. 09/0930Z C. 09/2230Z
D. 13.8N 57.3W D. 14.5N 60.5W
E. 09/1130Z TO 09/18Z E. 09/2330Z TO 10/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. TROPICAL STORM NATE.
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 09/18Z A. 10/00Z
B. AFXXX 0515A NATE B. NOAA9 0615A NATE
C. 09/1515Z C. 09/1730Z
D. 21.5N 92.5W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 76
A. 10/06Z
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 B. AFXXX 0815A NATE
A. 10/00Z C. 10/0330Z
B. NOAA3 0715A NATE D. 22.2N 92.9W
C. 09/20Z E. 10/0530Z TO 10/09Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42
A. 10/12Z
B. NOAA2 0915A NATE
C. 10/08Z
D. SFC TO 15,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. MARIA: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. NATE: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES AND P-3'S EVERY 12 HRS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Air Recon Taskings for 9/8-9
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 07 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-099
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
C. 08/1700Z
D. 14.3N 52.0W
E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1800Z A. 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 02IIA INVEST B. NOAA9 03IIA SURV
C. 08/1530Z C. 08/1730Z
D. 20.5N 90.7W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. MARIA: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z.
B. SUSPECT AREA: A G-IV MISSION FOR 10/0000Z.
4. REMARK: MISSION FOR HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/1700Z
CANCELED AT 07/1110Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Air Recon Taskings 9/7-8
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 06 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-098
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1700Z
B. AFXXX 0212A KATIA
C. 07/1330Z
D. 30.5N 66.5W
E. 07/1630Z TO 07/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 07/1500Z
D. 20.5N 92.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A SECOND MISSION
INTO THE SUSPECT AREA AT 08/1800Z.
4. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION FOR HURRICANE
KATIA TAKING OFF AT 07/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Monday, September 05, 2011
Air Recon Tasking for Katia 9/6-7
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 05 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-097
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
VJH
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 05 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-097
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
VJH
Katia Now Category 4
At this time, surf and rip currents are still the major hazards to Bermuda and the Eastern US.
Advisory #32 is current.
Advisory #32 is current.
Katia Now Category 3 (Major Hurricane)
Advisory #31 is current:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Katya is strengthening, but right now the major hazards are heavy surf and rip currents for Bermuda and the US East Coast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Katya is strengthening, but right now the major hazards are heavy surf and rip currents for Bermuda and the US East Coast.
Thursday, September 01, 2011
CFH Back To STANAG 4285
CFH, the Canadian Forces Halifax station in Nova Scotia, has switched back to STANAG 4285 (again) on September 1. Some might remember that it briefly tested this mode before going back to RTTY. Well, now it's gone back to STANAG. Parameters appear to be 75 baud, long interleave, ITA2 alphabet, 5 data bits and either no or one stop bit(s). Channel center is 1800 Hz so best decode on my receiver in USB mode is at -1.8 kHz.
The traffic is still an idler with the NAWS DE CFH ZKR ... AR marker every 30 seconds.
As long as we're discussing STANAG 4285, the highly regarded Sigmira decoding program for Windows and Linux has had that same problem with its features.dat file again. Apparently, this file becomes obsolete periodically and has to be replaced, but the program lacks an update function to do this. At this point, the button for STANAG 4285 does not work, and repeated clicking crashes the program.
This can be quickly resolved by downloading the new features.dat to your run directory for Sigmira to replace the existing one. The download is at the programmer's web site.
The traffic is still an idler with the NAWS DE CFH ZKR ... AR marker every 30 seconds.
As long as we're discussing STANAG 4285, the highly regarded Sigmira decoding program for Windows and Linux has had that same problem with its features.dat file again. Apparently, this file becomes obsolete periodically and has to be replaced, but the program lacks an update function to do this. At this point, the button for STANAG 4285 does not work, and repeated clicking crashes the program.
This can be quickly resolved by downloading the new features.dat to your run directory for Sigmira to replace the existing one. The download is at the programmer's web site.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Hurricane Irene Advisory #30A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 272253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WATER LEVELS RISING IN THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
WTNT34 KNHC 272253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WATER LEVELS RISING IN THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
Hurricane Irene Advisory #29A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 271803
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION
...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 271803
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION
...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Air Recon Tasking for Irene 8/27-28
000
NOUS42 KNHC 271445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 27 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-088
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z,21OOZ
B. AFXXX 3609A IRENE
C. 28/1415Z
D. 42.3N 70.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: ALL REMANING P-3 FLIGHTS CANCELED BY
BY NHC AT 27/0000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDIND DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 271445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 27 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-088
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z,21OOZ
B. AFXXX 3609A IRENE
C. 28/1415Z
D. 42.3N 70.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: ALL REMANING P-3 FLIGHTS CANCELED BY
BY NHC AT 27/0000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDIND DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Friday, August 26, 2011
COTHEN and FEMA ALE 8/26-27 (UTC)
8/26-27:
COTHEN:
006, 07Z, 702, 708, 720, ABQPRI, D07, D23, D47, F04, I86, I96, J01, J21, J24, LNT, N07, N08, N09, PAC, ROS, SLKNY, VAI, Z35
4522.0, 5732.0, 7527.0, 8912.0, 10242.0, 11494.0, 12222.0, 13312.0, 13907.0, 14582.0, 15867.0, 18594.0, 20890.0, 23214.0, 25350.0
FEMA:
FC0FEM, FC1FEM, FR1FEM, FR3FEM, FC4FEM, FC4FEM004, FR4FEM, FR5FEM, FC6FEM, FC8FEM, FC8FEM002, FC8FEM006, FM8FEM, FR9FEM, FCXBCU1 (10493)
4603.0, 4780.0, 7348.0, 9462.0, 10194.0, 10493.0 (FCXBCU1), 10588.0, 12216.0, 13446.0, 14776.0, 14885.0, 15708.0, 16201.0, 16353.0, 19969.0, 21866.0, 24526.0
COTHEN:
006, 07Z, 702, 708, 720, ABQPRI, D07, D23, D47, F04, I86, I96, J01, J21, J24, LNT, N07, N08, N09, PAC, ROS, SLKNY, VAI, Z35
4522.0, 5732.0, 7527.0, 8912.0, 10242.0, 11494.0, 12222.0, 13312.0, 13907.0, 14582.0, 15867.0, 18594.0, 20890.0, 23214.0, 25350.0
FEMA:
FC0FEM, FC1FEM, FR1FEM, FR3FEM, FC4FEM, FC4FEM004, FR4FEM, FR5FEM, FC6FEM, FC8FEM, FC8FEM002, FC8FEM006, FM8FEM, FR9FEM, FCXBCU1 (10493)
4603.0, 4780.0, 7348.0, 9462.0, 10194.0, 10493.0 (FCXBCU1), 10588.0, 12216.0, 13446.0, 14776.0, 14885.0, 15708.0, 16201.0, 16353.0, 19969.0, 21866.0, 24526.0
Hurricane Irene Discussion #27
000
WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000 FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.
RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION... COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000 FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.
RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION... COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Irene Advisory #26
000
WTNT34 KNHC 262047
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND... BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H... AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
WTNT34 KNHC 262047
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND... BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H... AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Irene Advisory #25A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 261756
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 261756
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Air Recon Taskings for Irene 8/27-28
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261645
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT FRI 26 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-087
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/15Z,18Z,21Z
B. AFXXX 3309A IRENE
C. 27/1200Z
D. 34.9N 76.4W
E. 27/1430Z TO 27/21Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 28/00Z
B. NOAA2 3409A IRENE
C. 27/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/00Z,03Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 3509A IRENE
C. 27/2030Z
D. 36.7N 75.6W
E. 27/2330Z TO 28/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 28/09Z,12Z,15Z
B. AFXXX 3609A IRENE
C. 28/0645Z
D. 38.8N 74.5W
E. 28/0830Z TO 28/15Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43
A. 28/12Z
B. NOAA3 3709A IRENE
C. 28/08Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 27/12Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 26/15Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 261645
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT FRI 26 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-087
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/15Z,18Z,21Z
B. AFXXX 3309A IRENE
C. 27/1200Z
D. 34.9N 76.4W
E. 27/1430Z TO 27/21Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 28/00Z
B. NOAA2 3409A IRENE
C. 27/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/00Z,03Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 3509A IRENE
C. 27/2030Z
D. 36.7N 75.6W
E. 27/2330Z TO 28/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 28/09Z,12Z,15Z
B. AFXXX 3609A IRENE
C. 28/0645Z
D. 38.8N 74.5W
E. 28/0830Z TO 28/15Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43
A. 28/12Z
B. NOAA3 3709A IRENE
C. 28/08Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 27/12Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 26/15Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP
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