UK Proposes Massive Coast Guard Cuts

A leaked plan from the UK Department for Transport proposes the reduction of Coast Guard facilities from 19 to 8, only 3 of which would operate 24/7.

The new full-time maritime centers would be at Aberdeen, Southampton/Portsmouth, and Dover. Five sub-centers would be open in daylight hours only, at Swansea, Humber, Falmouth, Belfast or Liverpool, and Stornoway or Shetland.

One immediate issue of contention is that this plan leaves only one Coast Guard base in Wales.

In addition, the transport secretary continues with plans to privatize the search and rescue operation. The Royal Air Force, Royal Navy, and Coast Guard's "aging" Sea King helicopters would be replaced with a SAR system supplied by a private contractor.

The effects of all this on Coast Guard radio are not yet known, since nothing is as yet definite.

Possible Winter Storm Recon

Get out your intersection/ waypoint charts:

-----
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EST WED 15 DECEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-015

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE TRACK A66 CW
CONTROL POINT BOGGY 18/0000Z
B. POSSIBLE TRACK A65 CW
CONTROL POINT STIFF 18/1200Z
JWP

New Radios for 2011

Following something of a drought in tabletop communication receivers, we now see some interesting new radios in the pipeline for utility grade performance at less than astronomical prices.


Alinco DX-R8T

This is a small radio with typical tabletop receiver coverage and specs. It sounds worth checking out. Here's the description on Universal Radio's web site:

The Alinco DX-R8T receiver covers 150 kHz to 30 MHz in SSB, CW, AM and FM. Other features include: IF shift, band and memory scanning, attenuator, preamp, RIT and noise blanker. Enjoy 600 alphanumeric memories (3 banks of 200 channels). There are rear panel connectors for external devices including IQ output for possible use in SDR applications, DRM, external decoding, etc. With SDR freeware (not supplied) you will be able to decode DRM with a PC with sound card.

Requires 12 VDC at 1 amp. Please note that this radio comes with a 12VDC cable and Owner's Manual only. It does not include a power supply. An AC power supply that provides 12VDC filtered 3 amp (or greater) power supply is required for home operation. See Samlex SPS-1204UL (below) or equivalent. Size: 9.45 x 3.95 x 11.54 inches (240x100x293mm 4.1 kg).

Listed price is $549.95.


AOR AR7070

This replacement of the highly regarded AR-7030, made by AOR UK, has been in the works for some time now. Prototype units have gotten good reviews from the few who have seen them. Supposedly it's been held up by difficulties in obtaining quality parts and in various firmware issues. It has not been FCC approved for the US, though this is in work according to Universal. It's an up-converted radio with DSP and an H mode front end. Here's the first paragraph of a review:

The AR7070 has been designed by my friend John Thorpe the designer of the highly acclaimed AR7030 HF receiver and also the designer of the 'HF' series of receivers made in Matlock by Lowe Electronics in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The AR7070 is an up conversion receiver that uses the techniques of the receive section of the CDG2000 transceiver that Martein improved upon to make his 'holy grail' receiver with a 9MHz IF. Like the CDG2000 receiver the AR7070 is sensitive enough not to require a preamplifier before its first H mode mixer.

The price in US$ is not known, but it will not be cheap.


Winradio WR-G33DDC Excalibur Pro

Well, OK, this is actually an SDR for use with a computer, but it has been the subject of considerable interest, including here on my part. Winradio has two styles of radios in the G-3 class. The Excalibur is the version using digital down-conversion (DDC). This radio, the WR-G31DDC is still available, but presumably it may be nearing the end of Winradio's usual 5-year support cycle. The G33 is said to have 4 MHz available for demodulation instead of two. The radio will probably share the Excalibur's tendency to use all the PC computing power you can give it.

Here's the description on Winradio's site:

The WiNRADiO WR-G33DDC 'EXCALIBUR Pro' is a high-performance, low-cost, direct-sampling, software-defined, shortwave receiver with a frequency range from 9 kHz to 49.995 MHz. It includes a real-time 50 MHz-wide spectrum analyzer and 4 MHz-wide instantaneous bandwidth available for recording, demodulation and further digital processing.

This product is an advanced version of the WR-G31DDC receiver offering the following additional improvements:

4 MHz instantaneous processing bandwidth
Low-noise preamplifier
Configurable preselection filters
Filter bandwidth adjustable down to 1 Hz
0.5 ppm frequency stability
Test and measurement functions

Again, the price has not been announced. The current G31DDC is $849.95 at Grove.

Greenland: KNR closes MW/SW

Google translation (not always good) of the Danish language site:

Greenland: KNR closes between wave [MW, also closing SWBC -Hugh]

Friday 10th December 2010
By Stig Hartvig Nielsen

For more than 50 years, the Greenlandic radio KNR, has been broadcast on medium wave.

From five different forward positions, sea and the entire west coast of Greenland were covered by KNRs radio program. But on 11 February 2011 [KNR will turn] off the five AM radio transmitters, and KNR will then only be audible in Greenlandic towns on FM.

It is the Department of Housing, Infrastructure and Transport in Greenland, which has decided to dismantle the five medium-wave transmitters, respectively: Upernavik (810 kHz), Uummannaq (900 kHz), Qeqertarsuaq (650 kHz), Nuuk (570 kHz) and Simiutaq (720 kHz). The transmitters are between 5 and 10 kW.

Head Mads Byrialsen from Home Rule to disclose radionyt.com that medium wave facilities are very old, and therefore would be expensive to continue to maintain.

"There is also an extensive network of FM transmitters along the coast, covering all cities and villages and sea near inhabited areas. There are very few who could not hear KNR radio via FM transmitters. It was as a result it estimated that the resources used for maintenance of medium wave facilities may be used more efficiently for other purposes, "says Byrialsen further.

Fishermen and others sailing on the high seas, trappers, hunters and others inside the fjords, people on the ice cap, listeners in Canada and [others will therefore be] precluded thereby from [hearing] KNR. From 11 February next year it will only be in Greenlandic towns and villages, you could hear the KNR. The vast majority of FM transmitters here uses [transmitter powers] between 10 and 50 watts, and has a very limited range.

Mads Byrialsen stresses, however, that this will be very few people who lose the opportunity to hear KNR, and that there are security implications.

It will still be possible to communicate with coast radio and there will four times daily - year round - at 08.05, 12.05, 18.05 and 22.05 Greenlandic time - will be sent weather reports on coastal radio VHF working channels. Broadcasts are 12.05 and 22.05 will be reruns. Fishermen and people moving in nature, will therefore still be able to hear the weather forecast.

Also end with a short wave from Greenland

In the past few years, the main news broadcasts from KNR has been broadcast on a low power SSB shortwave broadcasts from the Greenlandic town of Tasiilaq. These broadcasts also disbanded at 11 February.

Mads Byrialsen indicate that users of the lake is served by KNR's weather announcements will be broadcast over the 4 VHF working channels in the area. "There are so far indicated a very limited number of seagoing ships which are resident in Tasiilaq," adds Mads Byrialsen.

Previously there has been quite other plans - namely that the five medium-wave transmitters on the west coast were replaced by one or two powerful AM short wave transmitters located on Telegraføen at Nuuk. This or these transmitters could cover not only all of Greenland but also all the waters where Greenlandic fishermen come. But those plans were abandoned.

"Plans for an AM short wave transmitter at Telegraføen off Nuuk were downsized during the negotiations for DVBT. The investment was more than 5 million. And the annual operating costs were too high. Furthermore, it was estimated that few users would invest in a shortwave receiver, and that the quality would otherwise be questionable and very dependent on atmospheric phenomena," explains Mads Byrialsen.

On 11 February 2011 8 is the end

All Greenland between wave ends closed on 11 February at 08:00 West Greenland time. Medium Wave plants will be decommissioned immediately after closing, and [not] maintained so hence not operational in any emergency. It would cost Tele Greenland 1.5 million good kr annually to maintain forward clean.

Bangkok Weather Fax Is Not Dead

This grungy chart was copied on 7396.9 kHz (tune 7395.0), around 1730 UTC on December 1. It's from HSW, Bangkok, Thailand, and should put to rest the claims that this station has left the air. It remains quite active on this single frequency.

The DX-Tuner in Hong Kong was used. Signal was good at start, but dropped off into the crud.

North Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends Today

November 30 is the formal end of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Though the calendar says so, the hurricanes don't always notice. Witness the imfamous 2005 season, when they continued well into December, using Greek letters because the names were exhausted.

2010 was actually a very busy hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Fortunately, there were no major landfalls on US soil.

The TCPOD (Tropical Cyclone Plan Of the Day) is replaced by a WSPOD (Winter Storm Plan Of the Day) unless a TCPOD is needed for aerial weather recon tasking. The same WWW links work for both.

---

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EST TUE 30 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-182

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THIS WILL BE THE LAST TCPOD OF THE
YEAR UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT OTHERWISE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Netherlands WebSDR Update Nov. 29

Here's the latest from the ham radio club at the U. of Twente, Netherlands, concerning the return of their WebSDR to service:

Update 26 November:

We're back -- well, somewhat.
Over the past couple of weeks, we have moved all our stuff to our new club room (although much of it still has to be unpacked), and since yesterday, we have an internet connection there.
Unfortunately though, we do not yet have any possibilities for feeding an antenna cable through the wall. It is also still very unclear how long it will take until it this will be arranged.

Background:

Since Wednesday November 3, this WebSDR receiver has been offline. This is because the radio club at the University of Twente, where this receiver is hosted, had to move to a new building, along with the entire department of electrical engineering. We knew this was coming and we were busy preparing the move (dismantling our antennas, packing our equipment, etc.). On October 29 we were told that we had to empty the old room by November 4, which is earlier than we expected. That's why we could not announce this more in advance, and could not make the transition smooth by first preparing the new room.

73, Pieter-Tjerk, PA3FWM (e-mail about this topic: qrt AT websdr.org)

Denice Stoops Ships Out!

Denice Stoops worked at KPH when the station closed for commercial traffic. She was the first, and to my knowledge only, female Morse telegrapher at this station. She recently decided to get back into the business via the US sealift command, and after training she is shipping out. This comes from Richard Dillman of MRHS:

Our very own Ms. Denice Stoops has completed training and been assigned to MSC ship USNS Wally Schirra (T-AKE-8). She's on her way to meet the ship in San Diego, CA. See details and more photos in the "Denice's Excellent Adventure" section of our Web site. And join us in wishing her fair winds and following seas...

VY 73 ES BV,

RD

I also wish her the best!

Happy Thanksgiving from Utility World.

Netherlands WebSDR Unavailable Until Further Notice

If you're wondering where the University of Twente, Netherlands WebSDR online software defined radio has been the past few weeks, the answer is here.

The problem is that the university radio club is moving to a new room, making the equipment unavailable.

The same link has a list of other online SDRs that are worth checking out.

Did You REALLY Think There'd Be A TEAL 70?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST FRI 19 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-171

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: THE TASKING FOR 19/1800Z WAS CANX BY
NHC AT 19/0130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Will TEAL 70 Finally Get A Go?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST THU 18 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WEATERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 19/1430Z
D. 17.0N AND 87.0W
E. 19/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Give Us This Day Our Daily TEAL 70 Cancelation

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171620
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EST WED 17 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-169

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 17/2100Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 16/2330Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

New York VOLMET Is Back

Listeners in the US and Europe are reporting New York Radio back on-air with VOLMET on the usual frequencies of 3485, 6604, 10051, and 13270 kHz USB. It's currently weak/readable here in SoCal with fading on 13270 at 1908 UTC.  Looks like it finished its maintenance early, unless this is just testing.

Another Day, Another Teal 70 Cancellation (TCPOD)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 16 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-168

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1645Z
D. 14.0N 82.0W
E. 17/2030Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
18/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 16/2100Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 16/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Solar Flux Reaches 91

In this cycle, we'll take whatever the sun gives us.  Usually 90 is where you start to hear a real effect on HF, and yesterday some long transpacific paths were working well around 21-22 MHz.  Today seems somewhat disturbed by comparison.

Buzzer "UVB-76" Up Again on 4625

Good/readable signal, with heavy fading, into the web repeater's receiver somewhere in Europe at 16/1858 UTC.  Band conditions seem to have deteriorated somewhat.

The buzz is same as always, except for a slow warble at maybe twice per second.

Air Recon Taskings for November 16-17

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151415 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EST MON 15 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-167 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 16/1600Z
D. 14.0N AND 79.0W
E. 16/2000 TO 16/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
17/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 15/1055Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings for November 15-16

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SUN 14 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-166

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 15/1315Z
D. 12.5N AND 79.0W
E. 15/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24 HRLY FIXES AT 16/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Carnival Splendor ops on COTHEN

The US Coast Guard High-Endurance Cutter Morgenthau, a ship which recently returned to service from its base in Alameda, CA, and which was known to be on-scene with the distressed cruise ship Carnival Splendor, has been heard here sounding on the COTHEN net, frequency of 8912 kHz USB ALE, at 2322 UTC on 9 November.

The signal was much louder in Southern California than usual for COTHEN players. The Los Angeles Times has reported that Morgenthau is escorting the cruise ship as she is towed into port by two Mexican tugs.

The Carnival Splendor went dead in the water on 8 November, after a fire disabled the main generators.

4625 kHz Buzzer Up Today

On the Internet reflector right now (2118 UTC) with QRM from an off-frequency broadcast.

Tomas Night Frequency is 3737 kHz LSB

This 80 meter frequency was just given as where the emergency work will be tonight.  The Hurricane Watch Net is still active on 14325.  One first-hand report came over the air from Cap Hatien.

Hurricane Tomas Public Advisory #31

000

WTNT31 KNHC 052035

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010

500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

STS-133 Delayed Until At Least Nov. 30

NASA has called off any possible launch of STS-133 in this window. The next opportunity is November 30, at 0405 EST (0905 UTC).

While the tank was being drained of its cryogenic fuel following discovery of the hydrogen leak, a crack developed in the foam. This will require further examination.

The astronauts have returned to Houston.

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 6-7

000

NOUS42 KNHC 051500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT FRI 05 NOVEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-157

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. HURRICANE TOMAS

        FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA  43

        A. 06/1200Z

        B. NOAA3 2121A TOMAS

        C. 06/0800Z

        D. 23.1N 72.1W

        E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z

        F. 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42

       A. 07/0000Z

       B. NOAA2 2221A TOMAS

       C. 06/2000Z

       D. 25.1N 71.0W

       E. 06/2200Z T0 07/0200Z

       F. 10,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

     3. REMARKS: NOAA P-3 MISSION WITH AN 05/2000Z SCHEDULED

        TAKEOFF HAS BEEN CANCELED.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

Hydrogen Leak Scrubs STS-133

Once again, a hydrogen leak discovered during tanking has forced a launch scrub.

NASA:

Managers Schedule 11 a.m. EDT Meeting to Discuss Scrub Turnaround Options
Fri, 05 Nov 2010 07:25:58 AM PDT

Space shuttle managers and engineers will meet at 11 a.m. EDT to discuss the work necessary to repair a gaseous hydrogen leak and prepare space shuttle Discovery for its next launch attempt.

The earliest opportunity is Monday, Nov. 8, at 12:53 p.m. EST, the last date Discovery can launch in this window. The next launch window for Discovery is Tuesday, Nov. 30 through Saturday, Dec. 5.

At 8:11 a.m., launch was scrubbed because of a hydrogen gas leak at the Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate, or GUCP, an attachment point between the external tank and a 17-inch pipe that carries gaseous hydrogen safely away from Discovery to the flare stack, where it is burned off.

Shuttle launch director Mike Leinbach characterized the leak as “significant,” similar to what was seen on STS-119 and STS-127, although today’s rate was higher in magnitude and occurred earlier in the fueling process.

The external tank is being drained and will be inerted for about 20 hours before it is safe for technicians to look at the GUCP on Saturday.

The Space Shuttle Program Mission Management Team will meet Saturday after technicians have had the opportunity to troubleshoot the hardware. The MMT will determine if it is possible to achieve a launch attempt Monday.

NASA Television will air a news conference no earlier than 1 p.m. EDT with Mike Moses, Space Shuttle Program launch integration manager and Mission Management Team chair, and Mike Leinbach, shuttle launch director.

Solar: Stand By For Action!

An energetic, flaring region has just become visible to Earth in its rotation on the Sun's surface. Propagation disturbances, and hopefully some higher solar fluxes, are likely.

HWN Up on 14325 kHz

Current net control of the Hurricane Watch Net is W5LK with a great signal. He is looking for observations from Haiti or other affected areas in Cuba, the Bahamas, or the Turks and Caicos.

He reports that Tomas is currently a tighly wound hurricane whose center is transiting the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba.

T.S. Tomas Public Advisory #26

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.. MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 5-6

000

NOUS42 KNHC 041515

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1115 AM EDT THU 04 NOVEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-156

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 05/1800,06/0000Z

        B. AFXXX 1921A TOMAS

        C. 05/1530Z

        D. 20.6N 73.9W

        E. 05/1730Z TO 06/0000Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42

          A. 06/0000Z

         B. NOAA2 2021A TOMAS

                  C. 05/2000Z

               D. NA

     E. 05/2200Z T0 06/0200Z

          F. 12,000 FT

        FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71

        A. 06/0600,1200Z

        B. AFXXX 2121A TOMAS

        C. 06/0330Z

        D. 23.0N 72.9W

        E. 06/0530Z TO 06/1200Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

     3. REMARKS: NOAA P-3 MISSION WITH AN 05/0800Z SCHEDULED

        TAKEOFF HAS BEEN CANCELED BY THE CUSTOMER.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

Weather Delays STS-133 At Least Until Friday

NASA:

Shuttle Launch Attempt Delayed for Weather
Thu, 04 Nov 2010 03:08:24 AM PDT

Managers will delay Discovery’s launch for 24 hours due to weather. Mission managers will meet tomorrow at 5 a.m. [EDT] to reevaluate the weather conditions. Friday’s launch attempt would be at 3:04 p.m. EDT.  [1904 UTC]

STS-133 Count Resumes for Thursday Launch

The Mission Management Team briefing has just announced that the STS-133 count has resumed.  Weather is still doubtful for a launch Thursday afternoon, but the plan is to count down until the time for loading fuel approaches, then assess the weather at that point.

The Rotating Service Structure move was delayed by lightning.  It will take place shortly.  NASA TV coverage begins Thursday morning (EDT).

New York VOLMET Will Return; CFH FAX May Not

A recent Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) states that the New York VOLMET transmission on 3485.0, 6604.0, 10051.0, and 13270.0 kHz is off-air for transmitter maintenance. It is scheduled to return in mid-November.

The current situation is unlike the previous outage in 2007-2008, when the station simply ran out of money and left the air for some long periods of time, with no public notice at all.

In September, a listener reported on the UDXF mailing list that he had copied a message announcing the impending termination of all HF radiofacsimile and radioteletype broadcasts from the Canadian Forces METOC Centre. These originated from CFH, Canadian Forces Halifax, in Nova Scotia, on the assigned carrier frequencies of 4271.0, 6496.4, 10536.0, and 13510.0 kHz.

Hours of listening here produced no confirmation that this message had been sent. In addition, endless Internet searches turned up absolutely nothing.

As of November, however, all four frequencies are silent. It is not known whether this is temporary or permanent.

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 4-5

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 03 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800,05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1621A TOMAS
C. 04/1500Z
D. 16.1N 75.9W
E. 04/1730Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 05/0000Z
B. NOAA2 1721A TOMAS
C. 04/2000Z
D. NA
E. 04/2200Z T0 05/0300Z
F. 12,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1821A TOMAS
C. 05/0330Z
D. 17.4N 75.2W
E. 05/0530Z TO 05/1200Z
F. SFRC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 43
A. 05/1200Z
B. NOAA3 1921A TOMAS
C. 05/0800Z
D. NA
E. 05/1000Z TO 05/1500Z
F. 12,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: WC-130S CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE P-3 TAKEOFF AT 05/2000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

STS-133 Launch Delayed at Least 24 Hours

NASA:

MMT to Meet Wednesday on Electrical Issues

Tue, 02 Nov 2010 04:21:01 PM PDT

The Prelaunch Mission Management Team wants to give engineers more time to look deeply into two electrical issues from a main engine computer controller that cropped up this morning. Therefore, the launch of space shuttle Discovery on STS-133 has been delayed until at least Thursday. Mike Moses, chair of the MMT, said the problems are believed to be tied to a circuit breaker in the shuttle's cockpit.

Rather than rush the shuttle launch team through an analysis and launch cycle quickly, Moses said he opted to let the engineers work throughout the night on the issue without having to worry about an early morning tanking and Wednesday afternoon launch. The MMT will meet again Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT and then decide whether to try to launch Thursday. A liftoff Thursday would be at 3:29 p.m. [1929 UTC]

A launch on Thursday is problematic due to a weather front moving into the KSC region. Weather will have a much higher chance of preventing launch.

STS-133 Count Continues

STS-133 is currently in a scheduled hold at T-11 hours.  The Rotating Service Structure will be removed during this hold.

Launch remains on-schedule for 3:52 p.m. EDT (1952 UTC) tomorrow (Wednesday).  Weather shows only a 30 per cent chance of violating constraints.

Air Recon Taskings (and Cancellations) for November 1-3

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 01 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-153

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0821A TOMAS
C. 02/1430Z
D. 13.9N 72.7W
E. 02/1630Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0921A TOMAS
C. 03/0230Z
D. 14.1N 73.7W
E. 03/0430Z TO 03/0830Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS STILL VIABLE.

3. REMARKS: TASKINGS FOR 01/1800Z AND 02/0600Z ON TCPOD
10-152 WILL BE FLOWN, BUT TASKINGS FOR 01/1200Z AND
02/0000Z CANCELED BY NHC.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Tomas Public Advisory #10

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF BARBADOS...FRANCE...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

NNNN

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas October 30-31

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SAT 30 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z OCTOBER TO 01/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-151

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 31/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0421A TOMAS
        C. 31/1630Z
        D. 14.5N 66.0W
        E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2130Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 01/0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0521A TOMAS
        C. 01/0430Z
        D. 15.0N 68.0W
        E. 01/0530Z TO 01/0930Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
        AT 01/1200Z.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP

---------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 31 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-152

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. HURRICANE TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 01/1200,1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0621A TOMAS
        C. 01/1030Z
        D. 14.9N 67.4W
        E. 01/1130Z TO 01/18000Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 02/0000,0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0721A TOMAS
        C. 01/2200Z
        D. 15.1N 69.2W
        E. 01/2330Z TO 02/0600Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP
 

The Hurricane Season That Refuses To Die

1. T.S. Shary

000

WTNT35 KNHC 292054

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL202010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO

DETERIORATE OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING....

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. SHARY IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...

140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA

TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

2. T.S Tomas

000

WTNT31 KNHC 292036

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING

FOR MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS

 LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS

EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS

SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND

TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...

75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL

FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  THE SURGE WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

3. Air Recon Taskings for October 29-31

NOUS42 KNHC 281430

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EDT THU 28 OCTOBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z OCTOBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-149

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 29/1800Z

        B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST

        C. 29/1400Z

        D. 29.0N 65.5W

        E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2100Z

        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

        A. 29/1800Z

        B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST

        C. 29/1530Z

        D. 09.5N 57.0W

        E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z

        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM

        NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

000

NOUS42 KNHC 291500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT FRI 29 OCTOBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z OCTOBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-150

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 30/1200,1800Z

        B. AFXXX 0221A CYCLONE

        C. 30/0900Z

        D. 11.5N 61.0W

        E. 30/1030Z TO 30/1800Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

        A. 31/0600Z

        B. AFXXX 0321A CYCLONE

        C. 31/0430Z

        D. 13.2N 64.0W

        E. 31/0530Z TO 31/0930Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

JWP