Friday, December 28, 2007

Some MARS and SHARES ALE Hits

Copied in California during the 12/28 drill.

MARS = Military Affiliate Radio System. SHARES = SHAred RESources, a Federal interoperability pool and special net administered by National Communications System.

043NCS Natl. Comm. System, sounding on 9106 and 11217 at 1944 and 2143 UTC. Sounding on 11217 and 9106 at 2243.

ANCOPS Unk agency, sounding on 11217 at 2144, 2214, and 2315. Also sounding on 3349 and 17487 at 2144.

YXPNNN US Navy/Marine Corps MARS, sounding on 7642 at 2204.

KULNNN USN/MC MARS, sounding on 11098.5 at 2306.

6DUAFA US Air Force MARS, calling 6NEAFA, at 2332.

Note: The funny backwards MARS addresses are per interoperability committee REF A adopted some years ago, in which unique station identifiers occupy the first three characters (the ones passed in the standard ALE version 1 ID field as opposed to DAT words). YXPNNN=NNN0YXP. 6DUAFA=AFA6DU. And so on.

SHARES Exercise in Progress

Weak USB net traffic on 14396.5 here at 1850 UTC. Jack Metcalfe reports USB traffic on 5236.0 at 1607. Sounds like the quarterly drill.

More when and if I get it.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

STS-122 Won't Launch January 10 Either

From NASA:

Dec. 27

The Space Shuttle Program met Thursday to assess the progress made to troubleshoot an issue with the engine cutoff sensor circuit that occurred during the recent launch attempts and tanking test. Instrumentation installed for the tanking test indicate that there are one or more intermittent open circuits in the area of the feed through connector on the external tank’s liquid hydrogen tank.

The external parts of the connector will be removed and replaced with others that have been strategically soldered to ensure pin-to-socket connectivity and allow continuous electrical flow from sensors inside the external tank to the shuttle's computers.

This work will take some time to properly accomplish and to certify the redesigned configuration before flight. While a launch on Jan. 10 is no longer achievable, no launch date has been discussed. The program will take time to assess progress of the work before setting a target launch date.


This situation has put a major bottleneck into the ISS work flow. Things will be up in the air, no pun intended, for quite some time.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Let's Go To Hawaii!

San Francisco HFDL has been red-hot lately on 10081 kHz. Plotting on Google Earth is clunky, but has advantages at times. Here are a whole bunch of lucky people on the way to Hawaii, and some less lucky ones on the way back to winter in the US:


The nice thing about Google Earth is being able to zoom in. This airplane kept updating its position over HFDL until it was literally on the runway in Honolulu:


All plots made by PC-HFDL and Google Earth.

More on Status of STS-122

From NASA:

Mission: STS-122 -
24th International Space Station Flight -
Columbus Module
Vehicle: Atlantis (OV-104)
Location: Launch Pad 39A
Launch Date: Targeted for Jan. 10, 2008
Crew: Frick, Poindexter, Schlegel,
Eyharts, Love, Melvin, Walheim
Inclination/Orbit Altitude:
51.6 degrees/122 nautical miles

A tanking test was conducted at Launch Pad 39A on Tuesday to aid in troubleshooting the cause of malfunctioning engine cutoff (ECO) sensors. Technicians spliced test wiring into the ECO sensor electrical system and used time domain reflectometry equipment to help locate the electrical anomaly. Results of the tanking test pointed to an open circuit in the feed-through connector wiring, which is located at the base of the tank. The feed-through connector passes the wires from the inside of the tank to the outside. Today technicians removed foam insulation covering the feed-through connector box, and workers from Lockheed-Martin will begin inspecting and testing the connector if approval is received for its removal next week.

Shuttle program managers will meet on Dec. 27 to further review the data analysis from the tanking test conducted earlier this week and decide on a forward plan.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Next STS-122 Launch Date is 1/10/08

Dec. 13, 2007

Candrea Thomas
Kennedy Space Center, Fla

321-867-2468
candrea.k.thomas@nasa.gov

Katherine Trinidad
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-3749
katherine.trinidad@nasa.gov

Kyle Herring
Johnson Space Center, Houston
281-483-5111
kyle.j.herring@nasa.gov

RELEASE: MO7-185

NASA TARGETS SPACE SHUTTLE ATLANTIS LAUNCH ON JAN. 10

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA's Space Shuttle Program managers have targeted Jan. 10 for the launch of shuttle Atlantis' STS-122 mission to the International Space Station.

"The workforce has stepped up to and met every challenge this year," said Wayne Hale, Space Shuttle Program manager at NASA's Johnson Space Center. "Moving the next launch attempt of Atlantis to Jan. 10 will allow as many people as possible to have time with family and friends at the time of year when it means the most. A lot has been asked of them this year and a lot will be asked of them in 2008."

The liftoff date from NASA's Kennedy Space Center, Florida, depends on the resolution of a problem in a fuel sensor system. The shuttle's planned launches on Dec. 6 and Dec. 9 were postponed because of false readings from the part of the system that monitors the liquid hydrogen section of the tank.

Atlantis' main objective during its STS-122 mission to the International Space Station is to install and activate the European Space Agency's Columbus laboratory, which will provide scientists around the world the ability to conduct a variety of life, physical and materials science experiments.

For the latest information about the STS-122 mission and the ECO sensor system, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

-end-

Sunday, December 09, 2007

STS-122 Postpones Until January

NASA:

Dec. 9 -11:30 a.m. EST

Space shuttle Atlantis' STS-122 mission to the International Space Station is targeted to launch no earlier than Jan. 2 from NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The liftoff date depends on the resolution of a problem in a fuel sensor system.

Early Sunday, one of the four engine cutoff, or ECO, sensors inside the liquid hydrogen section of Atlantis' external fuel tank gave a false reading while the tank was being filled. NASA's current Launch Commit Criteria require that all four sensors function properly.

The sensor system is one of several that protect the shuttle's main engines by triggering their shut down if fuel runs unexpectedly low. Atlantis' scheduled launch on Thursday, Dec. 6, was delayed after two liquid hydrogen ECO sensors gave false readings.

Friday, December 07, 2007

Earliest STS-122 Launch Now Sunday Afternoon

NASA is targeting the launch of space shuttle Atlantis no earlier than Sunday, Dec. 9, at 3:21 p.m. EST from the Kennedy Space Center, Fla. Shuttle program managers made the decision after a meeting Friday to review data on a problem with a fuel cutoff sensor system inside the shuttle and its external fuel tank.

Because of the length of the meeting, the managers agreed that targeting Sunday would allow the launch and management teams appropriate time to rest and prepare. The Mission Management Team will meet Saturday at 1 p.m. to decide whether to make a Sunday attempt. A news conference will be held after the meeting's conclusion.

Atlantis' scheduled launch Thursday was delayed after two ECO sensors gave false readings. A third sensor failed after the tank was drained of fuel. The fuel cutoff sensor system is one of several that protects the shuttle's main engines by triggering their shut down if fuel runs unexpectedly low.

(From nasa.gov)

Large Increase in Russian Military HF Traffic

Russia continues to step up its military presence worldwide. Strategic bombers are flying again, and major naval exercises have dramatically increased HF utility transmissions.

Details of the underlying issues are in this UK Telegraph article of December 6.

MT's Milcom Blog is all over this story, and has a frequency list coming in the near future.

Meanwhile, here are a few busy ones (many more on UDXF):

18.1 Navy 75-hz shift teleprinting (Bee mode), parallel transmissions all over the place, including 7657, 8130, 9044, 9346, 11468, 12741, 14411
583.0 Russian Navy, CW
3217.0 Russian military, CW, duplex with 3393
9145.0 Russian Navy, CW
10308.0 Russian Navy, CW
11155.0 Russian Navy, CW

In addition, the air defense "time stamp" broadcasts and even the old Air Force FSK Morse stations are active again.

Next STS-122 Opportunity on Saturday

Following a day of meetings, NASA set the earliest possible launch time as Saturday, Dec. 8, at 3:43 p.m. EST. Engineers concluded that more time than 24 hours was needed to deal with the fuel sensor issue.

Thursday, December 06, 2007

STS-122 Scrubs for 24 Hours

During a routine fueling of the LH2 tank, a possible open circuit caused two low-liquid-level sensors to malfunction. These are a mission critical system, forcing a scrub for at least 24 hours for troubleshooting. New tentative launch day is Friday.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Swedish RF Alternator to Transmit Christmas Eve

From Ary Boender via UDXF:

SAQ TRANSMISSION ON CHRISTMAS EVE
DECEMBER 24TH 2007

There will be, as last year, a transmission with the Alexanderson alternator on VLF 17.2 kHz from Grimeton Radio/SAQ on Christmas Eve, Monday December 24th 2007.

The message transmission will take place at 08:00 UTC and will be repeated at 08:15 UTC. The transmitter will be tuned up from around 07:30 UTC, so you will get time to test your antennas and equipment during that time.

There will be no activity on amateur radio frequencies with the call SK6SAQ this time.

QSL-reports are kindly received:
- E-mail to: info@alexander.n.se
- or fax to: +46-340-674195
- or via: SM bureau
- or direct by mail to: Alexander - Grimeton Veteranradios Vaenner,
Radiostationen, Grimeton 72

S-430 16 ROLFSTORP
S W E D E N


That is not a typo. The frequency is 17.2 kilohertz, with a K. That's low.

This alternator is part of a radio museum at SAQ, a historic maritime coastal station. It's the last of a network of 200 kW General Electric rotary RF alternators that once covered the planet. They were set up to send Morse code (and, on occasion, AM voice) using truly enormous antennas. This was quite the hot setup in its time, and it had already pretty much replaced spark in coastal stations when vacuum tubes replaced both of them.

This station has global coverage, and anyone with low noise and good enough equipment on very low frequency has a shot at hearing something.

Monday, December 03, 2007

STS-122 Web Schedule

MEDIA ADVISORY: 57-07

NASA ANNOUNCES WEB COVERAGE OF NEXT SPACE SHUTTLE MISSION

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - A prelaunch webcast, live blogs, podcasts, pictures and videos highlight NASA's Web coverage of space shuttle Atlantis' STS-122 mission to the International Space Station. NASA will provide continuous online updates at:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

A live webcast featuring NASA astronaut Robert Satcher will start the in-depth coverage of the mission at 11:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday, Dec. 5.

A blog will update the countdown beginning about six hours before Atlantis is scheduled to lift off on Dec. 6 at 4:31 p.m. EST. Originating from NASA's Kennedy Space Center, the blog is the definitive Internet source for information leading up to launch.

During the 11-day mission, Atlantis' crew of seven astronauts will deliver the European Space Agency's new Columbus laboratory, setting the stage for expanded science capabilities on the orbiting outpost. Visitors to NASA's shuttle Web site can read about the crew's progress and watch the spacewalks live from the space station.

As Atlantis' flight wraps up, NASA will offer a blog detailing the spacecraft's return to Earth.


-end-

Space Shuttle Launch This Thursday Afternoon

RELEASE: 07-262

NASA GIVES "GO" FOR SPACE SHUTTLE LAUNCH ON DEC. 6

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA senior managers completed a thorough
review Friday of space shuttle Atlantis' readiness for flight and
selected Dec. 6 as the official launch date for mission STS-122.
Commander Steve Frick and his six crewmates are scheduled to lift off
to the International Space Station at 4:31 p.m. EST.

During the 11-day mission, the crew will install the European Space
Agency's new Columbus laboratory. Columbus will expand the research
facilities of the station and provide scientists around the world
with the ability to conduct a variety of life, physical and materials
science experiments. The mission will include at least three
spacewalks, delivery of a new crew member to the station and the
return of another astronaut after nearly two months aboard the
station.

Atlantis' launch date was announced after the conclusion of Friday's
Flight Readiness Review. During the one-day meeting, top NASA and
contractor managers assessed any risks associated with the mission
and determined whether the shuttle's equipment, support systems and
procedures are ready for flight.

Joining Commander Frick on STS-122 will be pilot Alan Poindexter and
mission specialists Leland Melvin, Rex Walheim, Stanley Love and
European Space Agency astronauts Hans Schlegel and Leopold Eyharts.
Eyharts will replace current station crew member Dan Tani, who has
lived on the outpost since October. Eyharts will return to Earth on
shuttle Endeavour's STS-123 mission, currently targeted for launch on
Feb. 14, 2008.

For more information about the STS-122 mission, including images and
interviews with the crew, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle


-end-

Friday, November 16, 2007

Colossus Breaks Code, But Loses Race

Having finally intercepted the radio messages (we know how poor conditions are in solar minimums), the Bletchley Park museum staff put the rebuilt Colossus computer to work on them, while also giving them to a Colossus emulator programmed on a common laptop PC.

The PC beat the 2000-tube, paper-tape-based Colossus, but not by much. Actually, though, another crypto type who'd written his own software already had them both beat.

Still, the clunky replica machine, which fills a large room, was able to break a long message in a complex RTTY Baudot encipherment scheme in about 4 hours, 20 minutes. Not too shabby for vacuum tubes, even though a couple of "valves" blew out toward the end.

It was the timeliness of the decipherment which made these machines so important in shortening World War II. In particular, it gave planners of the D-Day invasion useful information about German defense preparations.

BBC:

Last Updated: Friday, 16 November 2007, 13:43 GMT

Colossus loses code-cracking race

By Mark Ward

Technology Correspondent, BBC News website

An amateur cryptographer has beaten Colossus in a code-cracking challenge set up to mark the end of a project to rebuild the pioneering computer.

...

At the same time as Colossus cranked through the messages a separate team used a virtual Colossus on a laptop to read the scrambled messages. That too beat Colossus and deciphered the message mid-morning on Friday.

...

The ciphertext from the messages will also be placed on the museum's website so amateur code-crackers who do not have access to radio can have a go at breaking the signals.

UK Colossus Computer Decrypting Messages Again!

The huge, vacuum-tube- and paper-tape-based Colossus computer, widely accepted as the first truly programmable machine, will be put to work breaking Nazi coded messages again. These will be real intercepts of transmissions with the original German WWII encipherment devices by special event hams in Germany. The copy from receivers in the UK will be put through a replica of the original 10 Colossus machines that helped win the war by deciphering the Lorenz transmissions sent to the secret crypto facility at Bletchley Park.

All plans to the Colossus were destroyed for secrecy, but this is as close as anyone can get. It still uses tubes and a paper tape reader, and so it is still, uh, colossal. A standard COTS personal computer will be programmed to emulate the Colossus, and decryption times will be compared.

BBC:

Last Updated: Thursday, 15 November 2007, 14:59 GMT

Colossus cracks codes once more

By Mark Ward
Technology Correspondent, BBC News website

For the first time in more than 60 years a Colossus computer is cracking codes at Bletchley Park.

...

The re-built Colossus will be put to work on intercepted radio messages transmitted by radio amateurs in Paderborn, Germany that have been scrambled using a Lorenz SZ42 machine - as used by the German high command in wartime.

...

Speaking to the BBC, Andy Clark, one of the founders of the Trust for the National Museum of Computing, said radio problems had stopped the challenge getting under way on time.

"The radio path has not been particularly good between Germany and here," he said. "We are at a bad point in the sunspot cycle."

Signals had improved throughout the day, he added, and he hoped to get 100% of the ciphertext - the code - through soon.


Stay tuned...

More XSS

16 November (UTC):

10420.0 XSS sounding at 0017, 0047, 2358.
14782.5 XSS sounding at 0044.

17 November (UTC):

14728.5 XSS sounding at 0025.
10193.5 XSS sounsing at 0029.

Other times and frequencies are no joy. The fact that the best signals seem to come in the late afternoon local time in November would tend to rule out the UK as a source. Perhaps XSS/ DHFCS/ TASCOMM is continuing to add transmitters as the network is built out and used by the UK military.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

XSS Finally Heard in Western US!

XSS is the Automatic Link Establishment address (ID) for the probable control station of the UK's new Defence High-Frequency Communication System (DHFCS). The control location is Forest Moor, England, though remotes are possible. It has been heard widely in Europe and the eastern US, but not out here on the Left Coast.

Not until today (UTC date 15 November), anyway. Several ALE soundings have been received on 14728.5 kHz. Here's the PC-ALE output:

[01:03:16][FRQ 14278500][SND][TWS][XSS ][AL0] BER 28 SN 02
[01:03:13][FRQ 14278500][SND][TWS][XSS ][AL0] BER 24 SN 02
[01:03:11][FRQ 14278500][SND][TWS][XSS ][AL0] BER 16 SN 01
[01:03:10][FRQ 14278500][SND][TWS][XSS ][AL0] BER 20 SN 01
[00:33:02][FRQ 14278500][SND][TWS][XSS ][AL0] BER 21 SN 07

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

PEMEX ALE Net

11095.0 kHz ALE is very busy with soundings from Pemex (Mexican oil company) facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. In the past few minutes, calls copied include ATASTA1, AKALJ2, REBOM1, ATASTA2, REBOM2, AKALN1, AKALN2, and AKALL1. All are soundings, all passing the first three characters in the TWS word, and the rest in DATA.

Oddly, the only other frequency being reported for this net is on 2182 kHz, the international USB distress and calling frequency, where it is stepping on other traffic.

Space Shuttle Landing Scheduled for Wednesday

Wednesday landing opportunities are at 1:01 p.m. and 2:36 p.m. EST. The backup landing sites at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., and White Sands Space Harbor, N.M., will not be activated on Wednesday. Presumably, they will be if weather forces a wave-off until Thursday.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Hurricane Noel Forecast/Advisory #22

That's right. Noel is now a hurricane. Wouldn't you know the deadliest storm this year, and the only one to come north, would be in November. Now here's the good news:


000
WTNT21 KNHC 020239
TCMAT1
HURRICANE NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 76.1W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......125NE 100SE 25SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 300SE 30SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 76.1W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 25SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 0SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 42.5N 66.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...480NE 480SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 53.0N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...480NE 540SE 480SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 62.5N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Space Shuttle Is Up

Boosters separated nominally and recovery vessels should be performing their missions. Some operation may take place on the usual Cape Radio frequencies.

Sorry for the long break in blog postings, but I'm on the road.

Space Shuttle is counting

Launch at 11:38 and 19 seconds EDT.

*Another* New US Coast Station Licensed!

From Richard Dillman of MRHS:

The repopulation of the medium frequency maritime mobile band in the US continues with the addition of a new coast station.

The FCC today granted a license for commercial coast station WFT. The station is located in Florida and is authorized for 5kW on 500kc and 486kc.

This FCC action marks the granting of two new coast station licenses in as many months. KDR in Washington state was authorized for 5kW on 500kc and 482kc in September this year.

In their applications, both stations noted the increase in the number of US ships, both commercial and historic, with the capability to use Morse in the medium frequency band. Their plan is to provide service for these ships as well as marine weather and press broadcasts.

WFT and KDR join KSM as active commercial users of 500kc, that most hallowed of frequencies, as well as working frequencies in medium frequency maritime mobile band. The intention of these stations is not to make a profit by providing radiotelegraph service to ships at sea. Clearly, those days are past. Instead, the objective is to preserve the skills, traditions and frequencies used for more than 100 years by commercial operators afloat and ashore.

Stations WLO, KLB, NMC, NOJ and NMN typically join KPH, KFS and KSM for the annual "Night of Nights" event each 12 July on MF and HF. With luck, KDR and WFT will join us for the next event.

VY 73,

RD

Space Shuttle is Go at T-9 Minutes and Holding

The final pre-launch poll has just taken place, with no constraints.

Launch should take place around 11:38 eastern.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

New Web Link for AFN Short Wave Schedule

The old link for the American Forces Network HF transmitter locations, frequencies, and times is no longer working. There is a new one:

http://myafn.dodmedia.osd.mil/ShortWave.aspx

The schedule as of September 2007 is:

USB
Station Day Night

Diego Garcia 12759 4319
Guam 13362 5765
Key West 12133.5 7812.5 5446.5 (all 24/7)
Pearl Harbor 10320 6350

Monday, September 24, 2007

Second New US Coastal CW Station Licensed

Forward from Dick Dillman, chief operator at KSM, the first new station:

A new US class 1A common carrier Morse code coast station has been licensed by the FCC!

As may remembered, I suggested earlier this year that those in the US interested in preserving 500kc for commercial operation should apply for a commercial coast station license - just as we did for KSM.

Two people made applications. One of these has been granted today (9/24).

Station KDR has been licensed to James A. Dalke in Bellevue, WA. OM Dalke is a broadcast engineer who just happens to have a 5kW MF transmitter in the garage so I suspect we will be hearing the signal of KDR before too long. Jim says he as many "interesting plans" for the station.

KDR is licensed for operation on 500kc and 482kc at 5kW.

See all information on the FCC Web site.

One other application is pending. Others have expressed interest in submitting applications.

In my view licensing stations like KDR is the best possible way to preserve 500kc for true commercial operations.

VY 73,

Richard Dillman


Coordinates given are 47-40-24.0 N, 122-10-11.0 W. Emission is 160HA1A (plain CW Morse wireless telegraphy, 160 Hz bandwidth). Antenna type is not known.

This ought to be good.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Interesting Aircraft Taskings for Gulf Cyclone 9/21

681
NOUS42 KNHC 201530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 20 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 42
A. 21/1800Z
B. NOAA2 0510A CYCLONE
C. 21/1300Z
D. 27.4N 86.8W
E. 21/1400Z TO 2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0610A CYCLONE
C. 21/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 T0 450,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 43
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0710A CYCLONE
C. 21/2200Z
D. 28.0N 87.5W
E. 21/2300Z TO 22/0430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 70
A. 22/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0810A CYCLONE
C. 22/0430Z
D. 28.5N 88.2W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 22/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Pacific Hurricane Ivo Forecast/Warning #11

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210235
TCMEP2
HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Cuban DIGTRX Numbers 9/13/07

The Cuban numbers stations, always good for a surprise, are at it again.

On September 10, Tom Sevart heard a new digital mode (for them) on 17478 kHz USB at 1600 UTC, and again on 17436 kHz USB at 1700. This is an 8-tone modulation mode with distinctive beginning and ending signals. It was quickly identified by Tom and others as Redundant Digital File Transfer (RDFT), a mode with several submodes of varying transfer speeds. It's used by hams for transferring files, usually slow scan TV (SSTV) pictures. We've written about this before.

Today, September 13, Tom and I both heard transmissions at 1700 on 17436. They were in RDFT and another digital file transfer mode called HamDRM, an amateur version of the Digital Radio Mondial broadcast standard. The program in use identified itself as DIGTRX version 3.11, a free download available on all the usual ham radio sites.

The sending station ID in the DRM transmission was RAD01. The file being transferred was called nen12.txt. Its contents are a standard V02a/M08a three-message encrypted whatever, but without the formatting into 5-figure groups. We thank Tom for sharing his decode with the Internet.

It is interesting to speculate on whether RAD01 and nenxx.txt are internal names used in the Cuban numbers operation, or just special test names. Probably ultimately futile, but interesting.

Last Humberto Advisory (#7)

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 92.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 92.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.3N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 88.6W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.9N 86.4W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 92.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Humberto Is A Hurricane (Advisory #4)

This thing was a depression at this time last night, and there was no time to prepare before it came in. Let's hope this is as strong as it gets.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH
OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1215 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Gabrielle Now Tropical (Advisory #4)

Air recon has found tropical characteristics in Gabrielle, and so it is now classed a tropical storm.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007

...GABRIELLE BECOMES TROPICAL...STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Thursday, September 06, 2007

R.I.P. Felix & Henriette

Final resting places:

Hydromet Drops Dissipating T.D. Henriette

What's left of Henriette is rain in AZ, NM, and TX. It missed CA where we could have used it.

For future reference, the Hydromet office's tropical advisory page is here.

000
WTPZ31 KWNH 061459
TCPEP1


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 28 FOR REMNANT OF HENRIETTE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
EP112007
800 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007

...HENRIETTE DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

AT 800 AM PDT...15Z...THE POORLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0 NORTH LATITUDE AND 109.0 WEST LONGITUDE...IN FAR NORTHERN MEXICO APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 MPH...13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

SELECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM PDT.

ARIZONA...

DOUGLAS 0.63

NEW MEXICO...

DEMING 0.25
SILVER CITY 0.22

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...31.0N...110W. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS STORM.

HEDGE
$$

NHC Drops T.D Henriette, Hydromet Picks It Up

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 110.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


NNNN

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Hurricane Henriette Advisory #22

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 050247
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE HAS EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA MADGALENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...EAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM ...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NHC Cancels Felix/Henriette Air Recon Tasking

580
NOUS42 KNHC 041830
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT TUE 04 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-103 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/1800Z --CHANGED
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 05/1700Z
D. 29.5N 74.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON HURRICANE FELIX CANCELED BY
NHC BY 04/0915Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON HENRIETTE CANCELED AT 04/1100Z.
WVW

Monday, September 03, 2007

Hurricane Felix Forecast / Advisory #14

000
WTNT21 KNHC 032049
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 79.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 79.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion #17

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032054
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

WHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE DAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED LOWER.

HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/05. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE THE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 48-72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED


FORECASTER RHOME

Hurricane Watch Net Activates on 14325.0 USB

From HWN Web Site:

Current plans for Hurricane Felix are to activate on Monday, September, 3, 2007 at 1400 EDT/1800 UTC to begin listing reporting stations in the projected path of Hurricane Felix. The net will activate again on Tuesday, September 4, 2007 at 0800 EDT/1200 UTC for normal net operations. These time are subject to change according to current conditions and forecasts.


Continuous hurricane communications are being heard here at 2200.

Sunday, September 02, 2007

Felix is Category Five (Special Advisory #10)

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Who Says Americans Don't Know Geography?


They do if they're into utility radio.

KSM RTTY Testing Again Today

From Richard Dillman of MRHS:

Once again this Saturday the KSM Transmitter Department plans to exercise the 12Mc RTTY transmitter beginning at about 2000Z and ending at about 2300Z. Press and weather will be broadcast in Baudot and FEC modes.

The Baudot transmission will be 170cps shift, 45.45 baud. The frequency is 12631.0kc.

The tubes currently in the transmitter limit power output to 2.5kW. Once these are replaced a power output of 4 to 5kW will be used. The antenna is a H over 2.

The transmitter for our 8Mc RTTY frequency is undergoing restoration by the Transmitter Department. Once this transmitter operational both 8Mc and 12Mc will be active each Saturday with press and weather information of interest to the maritime community. The 8Mc frequency is 8433.0kc. A double extended Zepp will be used on this frequency.

KSM will be active on Morse as usual on:

426
500
4350.5
6474.0
8438.3
12993.0
16914.0

K6KPH will guard 7050kc and 14050kc for signal reports, NTS traffic and general calls. Since the above frequencies are in a scanner along with the ship calling frequencies, the best procedure to use when calling K6KPH is the same as that for commercial operations: Keep sending "K6KPH" on the above frequencies (within the limits of FCC identification requirements of course). When your call is heard K6KPH will send "DE" after which you can send your call sign. Sometimes things get busy at the station so I apologize in advance if your call is not immediately answered.

VY 73,

Richard Dillman
Chief Operator, MRHS

Sea to Shining Sea (Henriette in E-Pac, Felix in Atlantic)

Felix has a good chance of taking about the same track as Dean, as a hurricane. Bad news for Belize and the Yucatan. Henriette is still tracking right up the coast, and depending on steering will either make the weather very interesting in Baja and Southern California starting Tuesday or so, or it won't. Recreational boaters in these waters definitely need to watch Henriette.

Both storms will affect Mexico. Mexican military ALE and amateur relief frequencies may light up. It's a good chance to practice your Spanish.

Henriette:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011444
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGE BUT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION AND THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AND BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS PATTERN COULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TEMPORARILY ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FORECAST BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ONCE AGAIN A GROUP OF TRACK MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOLER RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS BRINGS HENRIETTE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN THE GULF OF CORTES WHERE THE WATER IS WARM AND STRENGTHENING COULD CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED FOR THE FIRST OPTION AND KEEPS HENRIETTE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WEAKENING. THIS IN FACT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.8N 104.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.5N 105.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 107.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 114.1W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 115.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Felix:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Friday, August 31, 2007

Tropical Storm Warnings Up In Lesser Antilles (TD-6 Adv/Fcst #1)

000
WTNT21 KNHC 312045
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 58.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

TD-11E Now Henriette (Advisory #5A)

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM ...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
NNNN

Interesting Tropical WP-3 Tasking

150
NOUS42 KNHC 311430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 31 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0306A CYCLONE
C. 01/2000Z
D. 13.0N 67.5W
E. 01/2100Z TO 02/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 02/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 13.2N 69.2W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 02/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0506A CYCLONE
C. 02/0800Z
D. 13.5N 71.0W
E. 02/0930Z TO 02/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
P-3 DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

No Permanent Damage to Shuttle Endeavour

From NASA's weekly orbiter processing report:

Mission: STS-123 - 25th International Space Station Flight - Kibo
Logistics Module, Dextre Robotics System
Vehicle: Endeavour (OV-105)
Location: Orbiter Processing Facility Bay 2
Launch Date: Targeted for Feb. 14, 2008
Launch Pad: 39A
Crew: Gorie, Johnson, Linnehan, Doi, Behnken, Foreman and Reisman
Inclination/Orbit Altitude: 51.6 degrees/122 nautical miles

In Orbiter Processing Facility bay No. 2, two tiles damaged during the flight of STS-118 have been removed for inspection and testing. The orbiter structure beneath the tile impact area has been inspected, and engineers have found no evidence of heat-related damage. Additionally, three-dimensional measurements of the damage site found no appreciable change in volume resulting from heat affects.

Also during inspections, two micro-meteorite impacts were observed on the payload bay door radiators. They did not damage any of the radiator Freon coolant loops and did not reach the outer skin of the payload bay doors. These impact areas can be repaired.

Spacehab, part of the STS-118 payload, was removed from Endeavour's payload bay and returned to the Space Station Processing Facility. Validation of the orbiter's main engine pneumatics and power systems is complete. Workers have completed post-flight thermography inspection of the reinforced carbon-carbon, or RCC, on the nosecap.

Thermography inspection of the left- and right-hand wing leading edge RCC panels is under way. Preparations are being made for the forward reaction control system functional test. Workers are deservicing the hypergolic fuel system today. The orbiter's three main engines will be removed next week.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Tropical Depression 11-E Advisory #2A

TD-11E is on an "interesting" track right up the Pacific coast of Mexico. Labor Day vacationers, vessels, and interests on this coast and the Baja should keep watch. The depression is expected to be a hurricane (Henriette) by the time it reaches the waters off Cabo San Lucas sometime Tuesday.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310558
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 14 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...15.0 N...98.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Friday, August 24, 2007

Antarctic Operations Gearing Up for Summer

The end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere is the beginning of spring in Antarctica. Already the ski aircraft using the identifier ICE have begun operations.

A good report on the annual US Operation Deep Freeze is at Larry Van Horn's Milcom blog. There is a frequency list at the end.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Last Dean Advisory (#40)

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC THU AUG 23 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 99.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


NNNN

Recon Aircraft Stand Down (Until Next Time)

343
NOUS42 KNHC 231300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 23 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Hurricane Dean Forecast/Advisory #35

000
WTNT24 KNHC 212030
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 45SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 90.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.8N 93.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 91.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Monday, August 20, 2007

ENDEAVOUR SET TO LAND TUESDAY

MEDIA ADVISORY: M07-106

NASA'S SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOUR SET TO LAND TUESDAY

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - The space shuttle Endeavour crew, led by Commander Scott Kelly, is scheduled to complete a 13-day mission to the International Space Station with a landing at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Aug. 21. The STS-118 mission began Aug. 8 and installed a new gyroscope, an external spare parts platform and another truss segment to the expanding station.

NASA managers will evaluate weather conditions at Kennedy before permitting Endeavour to return to Earth. Tuesday's landing opportunities are at 12:32 p.m. and 2:06 p.m. EDT. The backup landing site at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center in Edwards, Calif., is available but likely will not be considered for Tuesday. The other backup site at White Sands Space Harbor, N.M., will not be activated on Tuesday.

Two hours after landing, NASA officials will hold a briefing to discuss the mission. The participants are:
- NASA Administrator Michael Griffin
- NASA Associate Administrator for Space Operations Bill Gerstenmaier
- NASA Space Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach

After touchdown, the astronauts will undergo physical examinations and meet with their families. Some crew members are expected to hold a news conference six hours after returning to Earth.

The Kennedy press site will open for landing activities at 8 a.m. Tuesday and close one hour after the crew news conference. The STS-118 accreditation badges are in effect through landing. The press accreditation building on State Road 3 will be open on Tuesday from 8 to 11 a.m. The last bus will depart from the press site for the Shuttle Landing Facility one hour before landing. For updated information about the landing, call 321-867-2525.

If weather prevents a Kennedy landing Tuesday, NASA will activate backup landing sites for attempts on Wednesday. Dryden has limited facilities available to previously accredited journalists. For further information, call the Dryden Public Affairs Office at 661-276-3449.

If White Sands Space Harbor is called up for strong consideration as a shuttle landing site, media desiring credentials there should contact the White Sands Missile Range Public Affairs Office at 505-678-1134. Journalists with STS-118 mission badges from NASA will be issued credentials.

NASA managers moved Endeavour's return up a day in case Hurricane Dean threatened mission control at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston. However, the storm is not expected to affect landing.

For the latest information on the STS-118 mission, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle

Dean Is Category 5 (Advisory #32)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210244
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

Hurricane Dean Forecast/Advisory #30

000
WTNT24 KNHC 201447
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Sunday, August 19, 2007

GOES Hurricane "Floaters"

Those awesome satellite pictures of hurricanes that the news likes to show are taken from special "floating" images created by NOAA from GOES imagery. They track the hurricane, so you always see what nefarious doings it's up to.

Here's one link. Not the only one, but the one I use.

STS-118 May Land on Tuesday

NASA has planned the first landing opportunity of STS-118 to be at Kennedy Space Center on Tuesday. The landing was moved up a day in case Dean required the JSC in Houston to close.

Dean's latest probability cones put the hurricane well south of Houston, though tropical storm force is possible. This is much less ominous than the forecasts of a couple days ago, which sent the eye right into Texas. Hurricanes, of course, do whatever they want to do, but in this case a strong high pressure system will determine how far north Dean gets.

For sonic boom and/or photography fans, the STS-118 ground tracks for the various landing opportunities are here.

Hurricane Dean Forecast/Advisory #26

000
WTNT24 KNHC 191443
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 75.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 75.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 75.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Scary Dean Advisory #22A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...DEAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEAVY SQUALLS
SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF
CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...
815 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA