000
WTNT34 KNHC 210244
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
