000
WTNT34 KNHC 131759
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM... SOUTH OF TYLER TEXAS...AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IKE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
