1. T.S. Shary
000
WTNT35 KNHC 292054
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
...SHARY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING....
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...
140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
2. T.S Tomas
000
WTNT31 KNHC 292036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING
FOR MARTINIQUE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR DOMINICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...
75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
3. Air Recon Taskings for October 29-31
NOUS42 KNHC 281430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-149
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 29/1400Z
D. 29.0N 65.5W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 29/1530Z
D. 09.5N 57.0W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
JWP
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 29 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-150
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 30/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0221A CYCLONE
C. 30/0900Z
D. 11.5N 61.0W
E. 30/1030Z TO 30/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0321A CYCLONE
C. 31/0430Z
D. 13.2N 64.0W
E. 31/0530Z TO 31/0930Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
JWP
