Hurricane Irene Advisory #15A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Tomas Night Frequency is 3737 kHz LSB

This 80 meter frequency was just given as where the emergency work will be tonight.  The Hurricane Watch Net is still active on 14325.  One first-hand report came over the air from Cap Hatien.

Hurricane Tomas Public Advisory #31

000

WTNT31 KNHC 052035

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010

500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

T.S. Tomas Public Advisory #26

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.. MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas October 30-31

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SAT 30 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z OCTOBER TO 01/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-151

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 31/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0421A TOMAS
        C. 31/1630Z
        D. 14.5N 66.0W
        E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2130Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 01/0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0521A TOMAS
        C. 01/0430Z
        D. 15.0N 68.0W
        E. 01/0530Z TO 01/0930Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
        AT 01/1200Z.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP

---------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 31 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-152

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. HURRICANE TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 01/1200,1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0621A TOMAS
        C. 01/1030Z
        D. 14.9N 67.4W
        E. 01/1130Z TO 01/18000Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 02/0000,0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0721A TOMAS
        C. 01/2200Z
        D. 15.1N 69.2W
        E. 01/2330Z TO 02/0600Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP
 

The Hurricane Season That Refuses To Die

1. T.S. Shary

000

WTNT35 KNHC 292054

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL202010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO

DETERIORATE OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING....

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. SHARY IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...

140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA

TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

2. T.S Tomas

000

WTNT31 KNHC 292036

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING

FOR MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS

 LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS

EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS

SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND

TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...

75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL

FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  THE SURGE WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

3. Air Recon Taskings for October 29-31

NOUS42 KNHC 281430

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EDT THU 28 OCTOBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z OCTOBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-149

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 29/1800Z

        B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST

        C. 29/1400Z

        D. 29.0N 65.5W

        E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2100Z

        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

        A. 29/1800Z

        B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST

        C. 29/1530Z

        D. 09.5N 57.0W

        E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z

        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM

        NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

000

NOUS42 KNHC 291500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT FRI 29 OCTOBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z OCTOBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-150

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 30/1200,1800Z

        B. AFXXX 0221A CYCLONE

        C. 30/0900Z

        D. 11.5N 61.0W

        E. 30/1030Z TO 30/1800Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

        A. 31/0600Z

        B. AFXXX 0321A CYCLONE

        C. 31/0430Z

        D. 13.2N 64.0W

        E. 31/0530Z TO 31/0930Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

JWP

Aircraft Taskings for September 27-28

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261635 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF