Showing posts with label igor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label igor. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Forecast Positions for Igor's Northern Adventure (NHC Fcst/Adv #54)

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 50SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT.......400NE 350SE 350SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..550NE 750SE 995SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 50.2N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...660NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
34 KT...720NE 600SE 500SW 750NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 55.3N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...350NE 0SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...420NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.
34 KT...450NE 650SE 570SW 720NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 59.8N 51.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
34 KT...500NE 800SE 240SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 62.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 360SE 360SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 63.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 240SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 62.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.2N 52.8W

Igor Still A Hurricane off Newfoundland, Heading for Arctic

Canadian Hurricane Center

WOCN31 CWHX 211500
Hurricane igor intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 12.30 PM NDT Tuesday 21 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 PM NDT

...Rainfall totals reported at st. Lawrence in excess of 200 millimetres...Flooding and washouts reported...Hurricane Force gusts reported at coastal stations in southern Newfoundland...

At 12.30 PM NDT... Hurricane igor was located near latitude 46.4 N and longitude 52.9 W... About 20 nautical miles or 35 km South of Cape Race.

Igor is moving towards the north-northeast at 45 knots...85 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 70 knots... 130 km/h and central pressure at 952 MB.

Igor is showing signs of tracking somewhat further west than The forecast track issued this morning....Taking the storm Closer to the Eastern Avalon Peninsula.

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are continued for southern and Eastern Newfoundland.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End hatt

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for Igor September 19

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 18 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-110

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800,20/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0611A IGOR
C. 19/1445Z
D. 30.0N 65.3W
E. 19/1630Z TO 20/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Watch Net Active for Igor

The Hurricane Watch Net on 14325 kHz USB has activated for dissemination of National Hurricane Center advisories and reception of weather observations from Bermuda. The eye of Igor is currently about 100 miles from the island, with wind about to become hurricane force. Sustained wind speed has dropped to category one, but tropical storm force extends out for a very long distance.

The Weather Channel is showing live reports from Jim Cantore and a storm chaser, both of whom are in Bermuda.

Control of the Hurricane Watch Net is currently KA5E in Texas.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Air Recon Taskings for Igor September 17-18

[Allan Stern heard several MARS patches yesterday from TEAL 78, a "Hurricane Hunter" WC-130, on 13927 kHz.]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115AM EDT FRI 17 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-109

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0411A IGOR
C. 18/1330Z
D. 26.2N 63.8W
E. 18/1530Z TO 18/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0511A IGOR
C. 19/0100Z
D. 27.9N 64.8W
E. 19/0330Z TO 19/0700Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES..

3. REMARKS: MISSION ON KARL FOR 18/00Z AND 18/06Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1315Z. NO RESEARCH FLIGHTS
SCHEDULED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Air Recon Taskings September 17-18

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161400 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 16 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-108 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM KARL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 78
A. 18/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0613A KARL
C. 17/2100Z
D. 21.0N 96.7W
E. 17/2330Z TO 18/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0211A IGOR
C. 17/1345Z
D. 23.2N 61.1W
E. 17/1600Z TO 17/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 18/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A IGOR
C. 18/0215Z
D. 24.7N 62.7W
E. 18/0400Z TO 18/0700Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON IGOR.

4. REMARKS: RESEARCH FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR KARL.
A. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 17/1730Z.
B. THE NASA DC-8 MAY FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 17/1600Z.
C. THE NOAA P-3 WILL FLY A 8 HR MISSION AT 12,000
FT WITH A 17/1500Z TAKEOFF.
D. A NASA WB-57 MAY FLY A 6 HR MISSION BETWEEN
52,000 AND 60,000 FT TAKEOFF AT 17/1700Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Busy TCPOD for 16-17 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151630 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 15 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-107 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM KARL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 16/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0313A KARL
C. 16/0845Z
D. 20.1N 91.7W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
A. 17/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0413A KARL
C. 16/2045Z
D. 20.9N 93.7W
E. 16/2330Z TO 17/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76
A. 17/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0513A KARL
C. 17/0845Z
D. 21.3N 95.2W
E. 17/1130Z TO 17/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0111A IGOR
C. 16/1430Z
D. 21.4N 57.6W
E. 16/1600Z TO 16/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON KARL.
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON IGOR AT 17/1800Z.

4. REMARKS: RESEARCH FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR KARL.
A. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 25 HR MISSION
(FL 58,OO0-65,000) WITH TAKEOFF OF 16/1200Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1730Z.
C. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1800Z.
D. NOAA 42 A P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION AT 12,000
FT WITH A 16/1500Z TAKEOFF.
E. A NASA WB-57 WILL FLY A 6 HR MISSION BETWEEN
52,000 AND 60,000 FT TAKEOFF AT 16/2100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

One Big Ass Hurricane, One Medum Sized Hurricane, One Tropical Storm

1100-Mile-Across Igor Public Advisory

Now-Cat-2 Julia Public Advisory

Right-Off-Yucatan Karl Public Advisory

Weather Flights (or lack thereof) for 15-16 September

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 14 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-106

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX HURRICANE IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 22.6N 58.6W
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 20N 91W
AT 16/1800Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES OF
HURRICANE IGOR AT 17/1800Z NEAR 25.4N 61.7W.
4. REMARKS: THERE ARE NO KNOWN RESEARCH MISSIONS
SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2.OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Hurricane Igor Public Advisory #23

000
WTNT31 KNHC 132038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 50.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Cat Four Hurricane Igor Public Advisory #20

00
WTNT31 KNHC 130246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR STILL INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG