Hurricane Tomas Public Advisory #31

000

WTNT31 KNHC 052035

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010

500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

STS-133 Delayed Until At Least Nov. 30

NASA has called off any possible launch of STS-133 in this window. The next opportunity is November 30, at 0405 EST (0905 UTC).

While the tank was being drained of its cryogenic fuel following discovery of the hydrogen leak, a crack developed in the foam. This will require further examination.

The astronauts have returned to Houston.

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 6-7

000

NOUS42 KNHC 051500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT FRI 05 NOVEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-157

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. HURRICANE TOMAS

        FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA  43

        A. 06/1200Z

        B. NOAA3 2121A TOMAS

        C. 06/0800Z

        D. 23.1N 72.1W

        E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z

        F. 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42

       A. 07/0000Z

       B. NOAA2 2221A TOMAS

       C. 06/2000Z

       D. 25.1N 71.0W

       E. 06/2200Z T0 07/0200Z

       F. 10,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

     3. REMARKS: NOAA P-3 MISSION WITH AN 05/2000Z SCHEDULED

        TAKEOFF HAS BEEN CANCELED.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

Hydrogen Leak Scrubs STS-133

Once again, a hydrogen leak discovered during tanking has forced a launch scrub.

NASA:

Managers Schedule 11 a.m. EDT Meeting to Discuss Scrub Turnaround Options
Fri, 05 Nov 2010 07:25:58 AM PDT

Space shuttle managers and engineers will meet at 11 a.m. EDT to discuss the work necessary to repair a gaseous hydrogen leak and prepare space shuttle Discovery for its next launch attempt.

The earliest opportunity is Monday, Nov. 8, at 12:53 p.m. EST, the last date Discovery can launch in this window. The next launch window for Discovery is Tuesday, Nov. 30 through Saturday, Dec. 5.

At 8:11 a.m., launch was scrubbed because of a hydrogen gas leak at the Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate, or GUCP, an attachment point between the external tank and a 17-inch pipe that carries gaseous hydrogen safely away from Discovery to the flare stack, where it is burned off.

Shuttle launch director Mike Leinbach characterized the leak as “significant,” similar to what was seen on STS-119 and STS-127, although today’s rate was higher in magnitude and occurred earlier in the fueling process.

The external tank is being drained and will be inerted for about 20 hours before it is safe for technicians to look at the GUCP on Saturday.

The Space Shuttle Program Mission Management Team will meet Saturday after technicians have had the opportunity to troubleshoot the hardware. The MMT will determine if it is possible to achieve a launch attempt Monday.

NASA Television will air a news conference no earlier than 1 p.m. EDT with Mike Moses, Space Shuttle Program launch integration manager and Mission Management Team chair, and Mike Leinbach, shuttle launch director.

Solar: Stand By For Action!

An energetic, flaring region has just become visible to Earth in its rotation on the Sun's surface. Propagation disturbances, and hopefully some higher solar fluxes, are likely.

HWN Up on 14325 kHz

Current net control of the Hurricane Watch Net is W5LK with a great signal. He is looking for observations from Haiti or other affected areas in Cuba, the Bahamas, or the Turks and Caicos.

He reports that Tomas is currently a tighly wound hurricane whose center is transiting the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba.

T.S. Tomas Public Advisory #26

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.. MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 5-6

000

NOUS42 KNHC 041515

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1115 AM EDT THU 04 NOVEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-156

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 05/1800,06/0000Z

        B. AFXXX 1921A TOMAS

        C. 05/1530Z

        D. 20.6N 73.9W

        E. 05/1730Z TO 06/0000Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42

          A. 06/0000Z

         B. NOAA2 2021A TOMAS

                  C. 05/2000Z

               D. NA

     E. 05/2200Z T0 06/0200Z

          F. 12,000 FT

        FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71

        A. 06/0600,1200Z

        B. AFXXX 2121A TOMAS

        C. 06/0330Z

        D. 23.0N 72.9W

        E. 06/0530Z TO 06/1200Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

     3. REMARKS: NOAA P-3 MISSION WITH AN 05/0800Z SCHEDULED

        TAKEOFF HAS BEEN CANCELED BY THE CUSTOMER.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

Weather Delays STS-133 At Least Until Friday

NASA:

Shuttle Launch Attempt Delayed for Weather
Thu, 04 Nov 2010 03:08:24 AM PDT

Managers will delay Discovery’s launch for 24 hours due to weather. Mission managers will meet tomorrow at 5 a.m. [EDT] to reevaluate the weather conditions. Friday’s launch attempt would be at 3:04 p.m. EDT.  [1904 UTC]

STS-133 Count Resumes for Thursday Launch

The Mission Management Team briefing has just announced that the STS-133 count has resumed.  Weather is still doubtful for a launch Thursday afternoon, but the plan is to count down until the time for loading fuel approaches, then assess the weather at that point.

The Rotating Service Structure move was delayed by lightning.  It will take place shortly.  NASA TV coverage begins Thursday morning (EDT).

New York VOLMET Will Return; CFH FAX May Not

A recent Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) states that the New York VOLMET transmission on 3485.0, 6604.0, 10051.0, and 13270.0 kHz is off-air for transmitter maintenance. It is scheduled to return in mid-November.

The current situation is unlike the previous outage in 2007-2008, when the station simply ran out of money and left the air for some long periods of time, with no public notice at all.

In September, a listener reported on the UDXF mailing list that he had copied a message announcing the impending termination of all HF radiofacsimile and radioteletype broadcasts from the Canadian Forces METOC Centre. These originated from CFH, Canadian Forces Halifax, in Nova Scotia, on the assigned carrier frequencies of 4271.0, 6496.4, 10536.0, and 13510.0 kHz.

Hours of listening here produced no confirmation that this message had been sent. In addition, endless Internet searches turned up absolutely nothing.

As of November, however, all four frequencies are silent. It is not known whether this is temporary or permanent.

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas November 4-5

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 03 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800,05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1621A TOMAS
C. 04/1500Z
D. 16.1N 75.9W
E. 04/1730Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 05/0000Z
B. NOAA2 1721A TOMAS
C. 04/2000Z
D. NA
E. 04/2200Z T0 05/0300Z
F. 12,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1821A TOMAS
C. 05/0330Z
D. 17.4N 75.2W
E. 05/0530Z TO 05/1200Z
F. SFRC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 43
A. 05/1200Z
B. NOAA3 1921A TOMAS
C. 05/0800Z
D. NA
E. 05/1000Z TO 05/1500Z
F. 12,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: WC-130S CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE P-3 TAKEOFF AT 05/2000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

STS-133 Launch Delayed at Least 24 Hours

NASA:

MMT to Meet Wednesday on Electrical Issues

Tue, 02 Nov 2010 04:21:01 PM PDT

The Prelaunch Mission Management Team wants to give engineers more time to look deeply into two electrical issues from a main engine computer controller that cropped up this morning. Therefore, the launch of space shuttle Discovery on STS-133 has been delayed until at least Thursday. Mike Moses, chair of the MMT, said the problems are believed to be tied to a circuit breaker in the shuttle's cockpit.

Rather than rush the shuttle launch team through an analysis and launch cycle quickly, Moses said he opted to let the engineers work throughout the night on the issue without having to worry about an early morning tanking and Wednesday afternoon launch. The MMT will meet again Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT and then decide whether to try to launch Thursday. A liftoff Thursday would be at 3:29 p.m. [1929 UTC]

A launch on Thursday is problematic due to a weather front moving into the KSC region. Weather will have a much higher chance of preventing launch.

STS-133 Count Continues

STS-133 is currently in a scheduled hold at T-11 hours.  The Rotating Service Structure will be removed during this hold.

Launch remains on-schedule for 3:52 p.m. EDT (1952 UTC) tomorrow (Wednesday).  Weather shows only a 30 per cent chance of violating constraints.

Air Recon Taskings (and Cancellations) for November 1-3

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 01 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-153

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0821A TOMAS
C. 02/1430Z
D. 13.9N 72.7W
E. 02/1630Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0921A TOMAS
C. 03/0230Z
D. 14.1N 73.7W
E. 03/0430Z TO 03/0830Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS STILL VIABLE.

3. REMARKS: TASKINGS FOR 01/1800Z AND 02/0600Z ON TCPOD
10-152 WILL BE FLOWN, BUT TASKINGS FOR 01/1200Z AND
02/0000Z CANCELED BY NHC.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hurricane Tomas Public Advisory #10

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF BARBADOS...FRANCE...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

NNNN

Air Recon Taskings for Tomas October 30-31

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SAT 30 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z OCTOBER TO 01/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-151

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 31/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0421A TOMAS
        C. 31/1630Z
        D. 14.5N 66.0W
        E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2130Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 01/0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0521A TOMAS
        C. 01/0430Z
        D. 15.0N 68.0W
        E. 01/0530Z TO 01/0930Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
        AT 01/1200Z.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP

---------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 31 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-152

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. HURRICANE TOMAS
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 01/1200,1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0621A TOMAS
        C. 01/1030Z
        D. 14.9N 67.4W
        E. 01/1130Z TO 01/18000Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 02/0000,0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0721A TOMAS
        C. 01/2200Z
        D. 15.1N 69.2W
        E. 01/2330Z TO 02/0600Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP
 

The Hurricane Season That Refuses To Die

1. T.S. Shary

000

WTNT35 KNHC 292054

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL202010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO

DETERIORATE OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING....

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. SHARY IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...

140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA

TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

2. T.S Tomas

000

WTNT31 KNHC 292036

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING

FOR MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS

 LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS

EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS

SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND

TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...

75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL

FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  THE SURGE WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

3. Air Recon Taskings for October 29-31

NOUS42 KNHC 281430

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EDT THU 28 OCTOBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z OCTOBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-149

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 29/1800Z

        B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST

        C. 29/1400Z

        D. 29.0N 65.5W

        E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2100Z

        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

        A. 29/1800Z

        B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST

        C. 29/1530Z

        D. 09.5N 57.0W

        E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z

        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM

        NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

                       JWP

000

NOUS42 KNHC 291500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT FRI 29 OCTOBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z OCTOBER 2010

         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-150

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)

        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

        A. 30/1200,1800Z

        B. AFXXX 0221A CYCLONE

        C. 30/0900Z

        D. 11.5N 61.0W

        E. 30/1030Z TO 30/1800Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

        A. 31/0600Z

        B. AFXXX 0321A CYCLONE

        C. 31/0430Z

        D. 13.2N 64.0W

        E. 31/0530Z TO 31/0930Z

        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.  PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

JWP

Hurricane Richard Advisory #17 Oct. 24

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250248
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...EYE OF RICHARD PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 88.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF BELMOPAN BELIZE
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL BELIZE OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA EARLY MONDAY. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS RICHARD MOVES FURTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE IN BELIZE CITY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE. WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA... AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF QUINTANA ROO AND CAMPECHE...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BELIZE AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF QUINTANA ROO AND CAMPECHE...AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Air Recon Taskings for Hurricane Richard 24-25 October

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 23 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-144 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 CORRECTED FOR TEAL NUMBER
A. 24/2100Z
B. AFXXX 1019A RICHARD
C. 24/1700Z
D. 16.7N 87.6W
E. 24/2000 25/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: BUOY DROP MISSION CANCELED AT 23/0900Z.
ALL REMAINING NOAA RESEARCH MISSIONS CANCELED BY
23/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

------------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241315 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT SUN 24 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-145 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 26/1800Z
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD NEAR 19.0N 92.5W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings/ Cancelations for T.S. Richard 23-24 October

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 22 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 78
A. 23/1400ZZ
B. AFXXX 0819A RICHARD
C. 23/1100Z
D. BOUY DROP MISSION
E. 23/1400 23/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 24/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0919A RICHARD
C. 23/2000Z
D. 16.0N 82.8W
E. 23/2330Z TO 24/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1200Z
B. AFXXX 1019A RICHARD
C. 24/0800Z
D. 16.5N 85.3W
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 25/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL CONTINUE TO FLY A SERIES OF RESEARCH
MISSIONS WITH THE G-IV DEPARTING EACH DAY AT 1730Z.
THE P-3 WILL TAKE OFF EVERY 12 HRS STARTING AT 23/0200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW


-----------------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 23 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-144 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 CORRECTED FOR TEAL NUMBER
A. 24/2100Z
B. AFXXX 1019A RICHARD
C. 24/1700Z
D. 16.7N 87.6W
E. 24/2000 25/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: BUOY DROP MISSION CANCELED AT 23/0900Z.
ALL REMAINING NOAA RESEARCH MISSIONS CANCELED BY
23/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings for T.S. Richard 22-23 October

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 21 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0519A RICHARD
C. 22/0800Z
D. 16.0N 81.0W
E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0619A RICHARD
C. 22/2000Z
D. 16.0N 81.6W
E. 22/2330Z TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0719A RICHARD
C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.2N 82.4W
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE BUOY DEPLOYMENT MISSION FOR 23/1400Z.
C. PROBABLE G-IV FLIGHT TAKING OFF AT 23/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL FLY A SERIES OF RESEARCH MISSIONS
BEGINNING WITH A G-IV TAKEOFF AT 22/1730Z. THE P-3
WILL TAKE OFF EVERY 12 HRS STARTING AT 23/0200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 10 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 11/1400Z
D. 14.5N 82.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 12/0200Z
D. 16.0N 83.5W
E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

-------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 11 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-132

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 12/1430Z
D. 18.0N 86.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0418A CYCLONE
C. 13/0300Z
D. 19.5N 87.0W
E. 13/0530Z TO 13/0930Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Air Recon Taskings for October 6-7

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 05 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-126

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 06/1300Z
D. 22.5N 68.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Possible Air Recon Tasking for October 5-6

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 04 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-125

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 06/1800Z NEAR 21N 69W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP