000
WTNT32 KNHC 261442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
...GUSTAV APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM ...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHEN GUSTAV MOVES OVER HAITI...HOWEVER RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
---------------------------------------
US42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 25 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-086
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 26/1800, 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0307A CYCLONE
C. 26/1445Z
D. 18.2N 72.7W
E. 26/1700Z TO 27/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 27/0000Z -- NOAA 49
B. NOAA9 0407A CYCLONE
C. 26/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE
A. RESEARCH -- NOAA 42
B. NOAA2 0507A CYCLONE
C. 26/2000Z
D. NA
E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0300Z
F. 10,000 TO 14,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70
A. 27/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0607A CYCLONE
C. 27/0300Z
D. 19.3N 73.8W
E. 27/0530Z TO 27/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA3 0707A CYCLONE
C. 27/0800Z
D. NA
E. 27/1000Z TO 27/1400Z
F. 10,000 TO 14,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV MISSION FOR 28/0000Z. P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 26 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-087
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE GUSTAV
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 27/1800, 28/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0507A GUSTAV
C. 27/1515Z
D. 19.1N 75.2W
E. 27/1700Z TO 28/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0607A GUSTAV
C. 28/0315Z
D. 19.3N 76.6W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION WITH A SCHEDULED 26/1730Z TAKEOFF
CANCELED AT 26/1110Z. P-3 MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 26/2000Z
AND 27/0800Z CANCELED AT 26/1300Z.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
-------------------------------
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 72.1W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.6N 73.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 74.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.3N 75.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 80.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 72.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
