000
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
...GUSTAV GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
-----------------
000
NOUS42 KNHC 271430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 27 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-088
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. AXBT DEPLOYMENT
B. NOAA3 0707A GUSTAV
C. 28/1500Z
D. MIDDLE OF GULF OF MEXICO
E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800, 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0807A GUSTAV
C. 28/1515Z
D. 19.2N 76.7W
E. 28/1700Z TO 29/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0907A GUSTAV
C. 28/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1007A GUSTAV
C. 29/0315Z
D. 19.6N 78.4W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV TAKEOFF FOR 29/1730Z. WP-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS
BEGINNING AT 29/2000Z.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
