000
WTNT31 KNHC 181438
TCPAT1 BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL062008 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...CENTER OF FAY NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN
