Bonnie is now a tropical storm. Models show a gradual curve which would take the center very close to the oil spill area. The effect will depend on how organized a currently rather disorganized tropical storm becomes.
The oil spill efforts are largely halted, and hurrevac procedures have begun. Check the usual frequencies, plus US Coast Guard simplex.
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 230242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
...CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
