Exercise Brilliant Midas 06
29 September – 13 October 06
Between France and Corsica
Purpose:
To train and certify the eight rotation of the NATO Response Force, which 4 Norwegian missile torpedoboats are part of. Support elements for the MTBs will also participate in the exercise, as well as a NCAGS team (Naval Coordination and Guidance to Shipping).
NATO Exercise Brilliant Midas 06 (BRMS 06).
BRMS 06 is a NATO live exercise in a Crisis Response Operation setting. The exercise takes place 29 Sep – 13 Oct 2006 and the exercise area will cover those parts of the Western Mediterranean Sea that lie between Port Vendres, France to the West and Corsica island to the East. This area includes French territorial waters, Gulf of Lyon and land training areas at South France.
In BRMS 06 NCAGS will be exercised to monitor the movement of merchant shipping approaching, passing through and sailing within the NCAGS Area (see Annex A). One Shipping Co-operation Point (SCP) will be established at Marseille (FR). The NATO Shipping Centre (in Northwood, UK) will compile and maintain a live merchant shipping plot for the NCAGS area. Merchant ships voluntary reporting their position may be invited to participate in interaction with military forces. Masters and crews of participating ships hereby gain experience with this interaction. The co-operation of merchant ships will be of significant value for the exercise and ships are invited to participate in one or more of the following levels of co-operation, on a no-cost/ no delay basis:
Level 1: Communication Interrogation
Level 2: Close approach by naval units
Level 3: Accompaniment (Escorting)
Level 4: Simulated attacks by aircraft, helicopters and ships
Level 5: Simulated boarding
Level 6: Live boarding
Additionally, it will be of great interest for the naval units, if you are willing to make your ship available for live boarding (level 6). Supporting life boardings enables ship masters and crew to gain experience in being boarded by naval teams. A live boarding may be executed by boat or helicopter. All ship masters should be informed by their Ship owners about this possibility by promulgating attached Notice to Mariners (see Annex D).
Prior to the exercise each participating nation should inform ship owners, operators, masters and port authorities of the exercise and the intention to involve live shipping.
A NAVWARN will be promulgated prior to the exercise. Individual merchant vessels will be encouraged to report directly to the NATO Shipping Centre when approaching or sailing within the NCAGS Area (Annex A) by sending initial version of Format ALFA – Ship Data Card (see Annex B). The NATO Shipping Centre will then may request further information in accordance with the short version of Format ALFA (see Annex C). Reporting to the NATO Shipping Centre reduces in many cases unnecessary VHF calls between naval units and merchant ships.
To avoid additional costs, merchant ships can use the allocated ‘Freephone’ number for sending their reports. Alternatively, ships may complete the Format ALFA – Ship Data Card and use the allocated ‘Freefax’ number. Furthermore, the SCP MARSEILLE may contact merchant vessels passing through the NCAGS area.
Freephone: + 44 19 23 84 35 74
Freefax: + 44 19 23 84 35 75
E-Mail: shippingcentre@manw.nato.int
Your co-operation is most sincerely appreciated.
Annexes:
A: NCAGS AREA – Exercise Brilliant Midas 06
B: Format ALFA – Ship Data Card (initial version)
C: Format ALFA (short version)
D: Notice to Mariners
EXERCISE BRILLIANT MIDAS 06
FORMAT ALFA – Ship Data Card (short version)
For timings please indicate the use of local or UTC/Zulu
Section A – Ship Data
1. Ships Name
2. International Call Sign
3. IMO Number
4. General Nature of Cargo
Section B – Voyage Data
5. Last Port of Call, departure date and time
6. Current Position, date and time
7. Next Port of Call, arrival date and time
8. Additional ports of call, dates and times
9. Additional Information as Required
Monday, September 25, 2006
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
NHC Drops Gordon, MeteoFrance Picks It Up
000
WTNT42 KNHC 202015
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
AFTER NEARLY 10 DAYS TRAVELING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...TENACIOUS
GORDON IS FINALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
WILL CONTINUE RACING ON A GENERAL EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK
UNTIL IT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GORDON.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 39.2N 16.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 21/0600Z 42.0N 12.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Monday, September 18, 2006
Two Months in the Life of Cuban Numbers
This is the result of lengthy examination of reception reports available in several places on the Internet. Where duplicates appear, they are different skeds the same day with the same problem. Some days, the transmissions with reported problems greatly outnumber the ones without any.
July
2 -- M8a -- wrong freq, QSY after 5 minutes, still carrier here
3 -- M8a -- started as V2a, changed
5 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
7 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
7 -- V2a -- wrong freq, sudden QSY
7 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
8 -- M8a -- cuts off early, no 3rd message
10 -- M8a -- comes up over V2a carrier, cut after 5 minutes
16 -- M8a -- wrong freq
16 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
16 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
17 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
18 -- V2a -- early end
19 -- V2a -- early start
19 -- V2a -- distortion, rough copy
19 -- V2a -- early start
20 -- M8a -- off-air for 2 minutes
20 -- V2a -- dropouts, early end
21 -- M8a -- transmitter malfunction, no copy
21 -- M8a -- repeat of above, still bad tx
21 -- V2a -- low modulation
21 -- V2a -- came up in LSB mode, early end
21 -- V2a -- noisy between groups
21 -- V2a -- garbled
21 -- V2a -- early start
21 -- V2a -- carrier, no modulation
22 -- V2a -- early end
24 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
24 -- V2a -- early end
24 -- V2a -- news for 30 sec, then no callup, then early end
25 -- V2a -- buzz and dead air
25 -- V2a -- wrong time, only up 9 seconds
25 -- M8a -- should have been V2a
26 -- V2a -- off air 4 minutes
26 -- M8a -- late start, lost some of callup
26 -- M8a -- repeat started late, also lost some of callup
27 -- V2a -- bad audio
27 -- M8a -- garbled callup
27 -- V2a -- wrong freq, quick QSY
27 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
27 -- V2a -- early end
27 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
28 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
28 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod, early end
28 -- M8a -- wrong freq
28 -- V2a -- wrong freq, QSY after 15 minutes
28 -- V2a -- no carrier, sent in DSSC mode
28 -- V2a -- early start
29 -- V2a -- false start, noisy
29 -- V2a -- false start
29 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
29 -- V2a -- dropping out
29 -- V2a -- dropping out
30 -- V2a -- 60 second dropout
30 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
31 -- V2a -- sent in LSB mode, early end
31 -- M8a -- false start
31 -- V2a -- started as M8a, switched after 5 min, no callup
31 -- V2a -- early end
31 -- M8a -- mix with another freq's V2a program, no copy
31 -- V2a -- mix with another freq's V2a, no copy
31 -- V2a -- mix with M8a, no copy
31 -- V2a -- mix with another freq's V2a, no copy
31 -- V2a -- brief mix with another freq's V2a
31 -- V2a -- wrong freq, wrong callup, switched to right callup
31 -- V2a -- brief mix with M8a at end
August
1 -- V2a -- mix: two V2a's, one M8a - no copy!
1 -- V2a -- dropout, then mix with unid SS
1 -- V2a -- mix of 2 V2s, no copy
2 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
3 -- M8a -- early end
3 -- M8a -- early end
3 -- M8a -- very late start
3 -- V2a -- distorted, early end
3 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
4 -- M8a -- should have been V2a
4 -- V2a -- bad audio
4 -- V2a -- mix: two V2a's, one M8a
4 -- V2a -- mix: two V2a's, one M8a, no copy, early end
4 -- V2a -- distorted
4 -- V2a -- mix with M8a, no copy
4 -- M8a -- false start
4 -- v2a -- early end
4 -- V2a -- carrier up late, no mod
5 -- V2a -- false start
5 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
5 -- V2a -- buzz and distortion
5 -- V2a -- severe distortion
5 -- V2a -- 3 seconds of SS talk first
6 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
6 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
6 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
7 -- V2a -- 7 minute dropout
7 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
8 -- V2a -- 30 second dropout
9 -- V2a -- wrong program, changes
9 -- V2a -- distorted
9 -- V2a -- wrong program, changes
9 -- V2a -- distorted, loud second harmonic
9 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, dropout
9 -- V2a -- distorted, loud second harmonic
10 -- V2a -- 4 minute dropout
10 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
10 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
11 -- V2a -- wrong frequency, QSY after 3 minutes
11 -- M8a -- audio test tones, then to MCW
11 -- V2a -- 1 minute dropout
11 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
11 -- V2a -- buzzy carrier before sked
11 -- V2a -- buzz
11 -- V2a -- distortion
11 -- V2a -- sent in USB mode
12 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
12 -- M8a -- carrier, no keying
12 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
12 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, mix w/M8a, distorted
12 -- V2a -- false start
12 -- V2a -- 2 minute dropout
12 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
14 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
14 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
14 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
14 -- V2a -- late start, cut off end
15 -- V2a -- early start, dropout
15 -- V2a -- early end
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
15 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
16 -- V2a -- early start, mix with M8a
16 -- V2a -- buzz, comes up between groups
16 -- V2a -- low mod, mix with M8a
15 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, dropouts
17 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
17 -- M8a -- very distorted
17 -- M8a -- early start
17 -- V2a -- late start, cut off ending
18 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, dropouts
18 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
18 -- V2a -- restart, mix with M8a, early end
19 -- M8a -- late start, no callup, early end
19 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, 9 minute dropout
19 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
19 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
19 -- V2a -- distorted
19 -- M8a -- cut after 1 minute
19 -- V2a -- mix with M8a, early end
20 -- V2a -- late start, missed callup
20 -- V2a -- late start, missed callup
21 -- V2a -- 15 second dropout
21 -- V2a -- early end
22 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
22 -- V2a -- false start
22 -- M8a -- false start
22 -- M8a -- false start
22 -- V2a -- very late start as M8a, no callup, distorted
22 -- V2a -- distorted
22 -- M8a -- mix with V2a
22 -- M8a -- wrong freq, QSY, then mix with V2a
22 -- V2a -- Radio Nacional del Venezuela for 2 minutes
22 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
23 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
24 -- V2a -- cut after 1 minute
24 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
24 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
26 -- V2a -- only number "ocho"
28 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
28 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
28 -- M8a -- completely garbled, no copy
29 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
31 -- V2a -- low modulation, no copy
July
2 -- M8a -- wrong freq, QSY after 5 minutes, still carrier here
3 -- M8a -- started as V2a, changed
5 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
7 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
7 -- V2a -- wrong freq, sudden QSY
7 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
8 -- M8a -- cuts off early, no 3rd message
10 -- M8a -- comes up over V2a carrier, cut after 5 minutes
16 -- M8a -- wrong freq
16 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
16 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
17 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
18 -- V2a -- early end
19 -- V2a -- early start
19 -- V2a -- distortion, rough copy
19 -- V2a -- early start
20 -- M8a -- off-air for 2 minutes
20 -- V2a -- dropouts, early end
21 -- M8a -- transmitter malfunction, no copy
21 -- M8a -- repeat of above, still bad tx
21 -- V2a -- low modulation
21 -- V2a -- came up in LSB mode, early end
21 -- V2a -- noisy between groups
21 -- V2a -- garbled
21 -- V2a -- early start
21 -- V2a -- carrier, no modulation
22 -- V2a -- early end
24 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
24 -- V2a -- early end
24 -- V2a -- news for 30 sec, then no callup, then early end
25 -- V2a -- buzz and dead air
25 -- V2a -- wrong time, only up 9 seconds
25 -- M8a -- should have been V2a
26 -- V2a -- off air 4 minutes
26 -- M8a -- late start, lost some of callup
26 -- M8a -- repeat started late, also lost some of callup
27 -- V2a -- bad audio
27 -- M8a -- garbled callup
27 -- V2a -- wrong freq, quick QSY
27 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
27 -- V2a -- early end
27 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
28 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
28 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod, early end
28 -- M8a -- wrong freq
28 -- V2a -- wrong freq, QSY after 15 minutes
28 -- V2a -- no carrier, sent in DSSC mode
28 -- V2a -- early start
29 -- V2a -- false start, noisy
29 -- V2a -- false start
29 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
29 -- V2a -- dropping out
29 -- V2a -- dropping out
30 -- V2a -- 60 second dropout
30 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
31 -- V2a -- sent in LSB mode, early end
31 -- M8a -- false start
31 -- V2a -- started as M8a, switched after 5 min, no callup
31 -- V2a -- early end
31 -- M8a -- mix with another freq's V2a program, no copy
31 -- V2a -- mix with another freq's V2a, no copy
31 -- V2a -- mix with M8a, no copy
31 -- V2a -- mix with another freq's V2a, no copy
31 -- V2a -- brief mix with another freq's V2a
31 -- V2a -- wrong freq, wrong callup, switched to right callup
31 -- V2a -- brief mix with M8a at end
August
1 -- V2a -- mix: two V2a's, one M8a - no copy!
1 -- V2a -- dropout, then mix with unid SS
1 -- V2a -- mix of 2 V2s, no copy
2 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
3 -- M8a -- early end
3 -- M8a -- early end
3 -- M8a -- very late start
3 -- V2a -- distorted, early end
3 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
4 -- M8a -- should have been V2a
4 -- V2a -- bad audio
4 -- V2a -- mix: two V2a's, one M8a
4 -- V2a -- mix: two V2a's, one M8a, no copy, early end
4 -- V2a -- distorted
4 -- V2a -- mix with M8a, no copy
4 -- M8a -- false start
4 -- v2a -- early end
4 -- V2a -- carrier up late, no mod
5 -- V2a -- false start
5 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
5 -- V2a -- buzz and distortion
5 -- V2a -- severe distortion
5 -- V2a -- 3 seconds of SS talk first
6 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
6 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
6 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
7 -- V2a -- 7 minute dropout
7 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
8 -- V2a -- 30 second dropout
9 -- V2a -- wrong program, changes
9 -- V2a -- distorted
9 -- V2a -- wrong program, changes
9 -- V2a -- distorted, loud second harmonic
9 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, dropout
9 -- V2a -- distorted, loud second harmonic
10 -- V2a -- 4 minute dropout
10 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
10 -- V2a -- mixing with M8a
11 -- V2a -- wrong frequency, QSY after 3 minutes
11 -- M8a -- audio test tones, then to MCW
11 -- V2a -- 1 minute dropout
11 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
11 -- V2a -- buzzy carrier before sked
11 -- V2a -- buzz
11 -- V2a -- distortion
11 -- V2a -- sent in USB mode
12 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
12 -- M8a -- carrier, no keying
12 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
12 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, mix w/M8a, distorted
12 -- V2a -- false start
12 -- V2a -- 2 minute dropout
12 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
14 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
14 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
14 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
14 -- V2a -- late start, cut off end
15 -- V2a -- early start, dropout
15 -- V2a -- early end
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
15 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
15 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
16 -- V2a -- early start, mix with M8a
16 -- V2a -- buzz, comes up between groups
16 -- V2a -- low mod, mix with M8a
15 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, dropouts
17 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
17 -- M8a -- very distorted
17 -- M8a -- early start
17 -- V2a -- late start, cut off ending
18 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, dropouts
18 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
18 -- V2a -- restart, mix with M8a, early end
19 -- M8a -- late start, no callup, early end
19 -- V2a -- late start, no callup, 9 minute dropout
19 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
19 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
19 -- V2a -- distorted
19 -- M8a -- cut after 1 minute
19 -- V2a -- mix with M8a, early end
20 -- V2a -- late start, missed callup
20 -- V2a -- late start, missed callup
21 -- V2a -- 15 second dropout
21 -- V2a -- early end
22 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
22 -- V2a -- false start
22 -- M8a -- false start
22 -- M8a -- false start
22 -- V2a -- very late start as M8a, no callup, distorted
22 -- V2a -- distorted
22 -- M8a -- mix with V2a
22 -- M8a -- wrong freq, QSY, then mix with V2a
22 -- V2a -- Radio Nacional del Venezuela for 2 minutes
22 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
23 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
24 -- V2a -- cut after 1 minute
24 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
24 -- V2a -- carrier, no mod
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- M8a -- late start, no callup
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
25 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
26 -- V2a -- only number "ocho"
28 -- V2a -- late start, no callup
28 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
28 -- M8a -- completely garbled, no copy
29 -- V2a -- mix with M8a
31 -- V2a -- low modulation, no copy
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Recent Cuban Numbers Frequencies
These have been reported in the past three months as being used by the Spanish language "Atencion" station in AM (V2a), or the Cut Number Morse code station (M8a and M8d). M8d had a different callup format, but only lasted a week or so. M8a is usually straight CW, but recently it is appearing as tones over an AM transmitter with rather poor modulation. Finally, M8 achieves higher transmission speeds by substituting letters for numbers on the formula ANDUWRIGMT = 1234567890.
0000
None at present
0100
3389.0 4028.0 6768.0 12119.0
0200
3292.0 5417.0 10714.0 12165.0 12180.0 12215.0
0300
4017.0 4027.0 4479.0 5800.0
6855.0 10125.0 10446.0 11566.0 12214.0
0400
3292.0 4479.0 5117.0 5762.0 6768.0 9330.0
10235.0 11566.0
0500
3245.0 3389.0 4028.0 4479.0 5883.0 8096.0
9062.0 10235.0 10446.0
0600
3360.0 4028.0 7887.0 8010.0 8097.0 9331.0
0700
9063.0 9112.0 9153.0 9238.0
0800
7862.0 7975.0 8010.0 10236.0
0900
6786.0 7482.0 7520.0 7527.0 8010.0 8136.0
8630.0 9040.0 9323.0 10126.0
1000
3025.0 4035.0 4045.0 7527.0 7681.0 7726.0
7862.0 7887.0 7975.0 7981.0 8136.0 8173.0
8630.0 9153.0 9240.0 9323.0 8136.0
1100
4478.0 4507.0 8136.0 9238.0 10126.0 10344.0
10345.0 10446.0
1200
9152.0 10446.0 10566.0 10715.0 11566.0
1300
5761.0 7519.0 9153.0 10446.0 10566.0
10715.0 11566.0
1400
10125.0
1500
None at present
1600
6867.0 7975.0
1700
8010.0 10446.0 10715.0
1800
8097.0 11566.0 13374.0 13419.0
1900
6783.0 7680.0 8097.0
2000
7554.0 7887.0 8009.0 7554.0 7887.0
2100
6855.0 6932.0 7975.0
2200
6854.0 7480.0 7519.0 7526.0 8009.0
2300
8009.0 8135.0
0000
None at present
0100
3389.0 4028.0 6768.0 12119.0
0200
3292.0 5417.0 10714.0 12165.0 12180.0 12215.0
0300
4017.0 4027.0 4479.0 5800.0
6855.0 10125.0 10446.0 11566.0 12214.0
0400
3292.0 4479.0 5117.0 5762.0 6768.0 9330.0
10235.0 11566.0
0500
3245.0 3389.0 4028.0 4479.0 5883.0 8096.0
9062.0 10235.0 10446.0
0600
3360.0 4028.0 7887.0 8010.0 8097.0 9331.0
0700
9063.0 9112.0 9153.0 9238.0
0800
7862.0 7975.0 8010.0 10236.0
0900
6786.0 7482.0 7520.0 7527.0 8010.0 8136.0
8630.0 9040.0 9323.0 10126.0
1000
3025.0 4035.0 4045.0 7527.0 7681.0 7726.0
7862.0 7887.0 7975.0 7981.0 8136.0 8173.0
8630.0 9153.0 9240.0 9323.0 8136.0
1100
4478.0 4507.0 8136.0 9238.0 10126.0 10344.0
10345.0 10446.0
1200
9152.0 10446.0 10566.0 10715.0 11566.0
1300
5761.0 7519.0 9153.0 10446.0 10566.0
10715.0 11566.0
1400
10125.0
1500
None at present
1600
6867.0 7975.0
1700
8010.0 10446.0 10715.0
1800
8097.0 11566.0 13374.0 13419.0
1900
6783.0 7680.0 8097.0
2000
7554.0 7887.0 8009.0 7554.0 7887.0
2100
6855.0 6932.0 7975.0
2200
6854.0 7480.0 7519.0 7526.0 8009.0
2300
8009.0 8135.0
Hurricane Lane Discussion #12
Hurricanes don't listen to us telling them where they're supposed to go, and Lane listened even less than most:
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161538
TCDEP3
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
...CORRECTED TO ADD INLAND AT 12 HR...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADARS AT LOS CABOS AND
GUASAVE SHOW THAT LANE HAS AN EYE ABOUT 8-10 N MI WIDE. ON
SATELLITE...THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80C AND
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON THESE
ESTIMATES AND THE INCREASED EYE DEFINTION SINCE 12Z. THE LOS CABOS
RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LANE IS ABOUT TO START AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS CLOSE TO PEAKING IN
INTENSITY EVEN IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MEXCIO AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/9. LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF OVER
WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING
AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE
DISSIPATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 23.5N 107.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W 90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Friday, September 15, 2006
T.S. Lane Forecast/Advisory #8
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 151434
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO
LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
LATER TODAY.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 106.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 106.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.0W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 106.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Useful Searches
We'd be lost without these at Utility World:
Airliners.net
Put in a registration, get back photos of the airplane. They have just about every aircraft flown by major airlines. Good for finding out type of aircraft heard on the air, or just to see who's talking.
AirNav
Searchable database of navaids and aiports.
Selcalweb
Searchable database allowing lookup of aircraft registration from selcal, or vice versa. Won't let you download the whole database and search it at home, but those who want to manage a file of 19,000+ entries can do that at another UK site.
NOAA Weather Theme Page
Gateway into the vast amount of weather product made daily at NOAA.
FCC AM Query
Useful for IDing AM DX, or finding source of co-channel interference. Searchable on a number of fields, returns either a little or a lot of highly technical information.
ITU Ship Particulars
Not the best database of ships, but the only free one. Search on vessel name, radio callsign, or MMSI. A different database maintained by a private party specializes in Russian merchant ships.
QRZ Amateur Database
The free search on this commercial site simplified ham radio QSLing and general IDing of stations by about 1000%. However it's also good for IDing amateurs only heard on the air. Put in a callsign, get back the FCC record.
Airliners.net
Put in a registration, get back photos of the airplane. They have just about every aircraft flown by major airlines. Good for finding out type of aircraft heard on the air, or just to see who's talking.
AirNav
Searchable database of navaids and aiports.
Selcalweb
Searchable database allowing lookup of aircraft registration from selcal, or vice versa. Won't let you download the whole database and search it at home, but those who want to manage a file of 19,000+ entries can do that at another UK site.
NOAA Weather Theme Page
Gateway into the vast amount of weather product made daily at NOAA.
FCC AM Query
Useful for IDing AM DX, or finding source of co-channel interference. Searchable on a number of fields, returns either a little or a lot of highly technical information.
ITU Ship Particulars
Not the best database of ships, but the only free one. Search on vessel name, radio callsign, or MMSI. A different database maintained by a private party specializes in Russian merchant ships.
QRZ Amateur Database
The free search on this commercial site simplified ham radio QSLing and general IDing of stations by about 1000%. However it's also good for IDing amateurs only heard on the air. Put in a callsign, get back the FCC record.
Here we go again: Lane predicted to move up Baja
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150556
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING
THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND FOR THE
ISLAS MARIAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...105.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
Shuttle Countdown Well Underway
Mission: STS-115 -
19th International Space Station Flight (12A) -
P3/P4 Truss Segment and Solar Arrays
Vehicle: Atlantis (OV-104)
Location: Launch Pad 39B
Launch Date: Sept. 6, 2006, 12:29 p.m. EDT
Crew: Jett, Ferguson, Tanner, Burbank, MacLean, Stefanyshyn-Piper
Inclination/Orbit Altitude: 51.6 degrees/122 nautical miles
At Launch Pad 39B, preparations for Wednesday's launch are under way.
The launch countdown began on Sunday at 8 a.m. The pressurization of
the orbital maneuvering system, the reaction control system and the
main propulsion system is complete. The aft confidence test is
complete. This test involves power-up and testing of all aft systems,
such as the main propulsion system circuits. The power reactant
storage and distribution system fuel loading is complete.
Weather officials are predicting favorable conditions for Wednesday's
launch attempt, with a 20 percent chance of weather prohibiting the
launch. Dryer conditions are expected to arrive on Wednesday, and the
early launch time should avoid the afternoon thunderstorms. The
primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10 nautical
miles of the launch pad, and isolated showers within 20 nautical
miles of the Shuttle Landing Facility.
(KSC Public Affairs Office)
Russian Military Exercises Continue
PROJECT 677 LADA
Testing of new Sankt Petersburg class submarine near Finland. Usual Russian naval beacons and stations are active. All skeds up and running on 18.1 kHz, yes, kHz. Weird Russian FSK mode preceded by N0N open carriers for 10 seconds. Activity reported on the Russian ELF submarine comm station (like the one the US closed down last year), on 82 Hz. Yes that's HERTZ!
UNKNOWN NAME 9/3-8
Joint combat anti-aircraft firing exercise by Russian and Ukrainian troops in Chita Region in Siberia involving S-200 and S-300 systems (Interfax-Ukraine)
[Look for those Russian Morse code air defense stations to be active, with time stamped tracking data. These are kept as a backup for training, and used during these exercises yearly. -Hugh]
COSSACK STEPPE 2006 9/2-15
Military exercise on Zhytomyr training ground (Interfax-Ukraine)
Frequencies worth trying (various modes, all kHz):
18.1
3261.0
3755.0
4079.0
4479.0
5213.0
6779.0
7657.0
7801.0
8345.0
11064.0
11155.0
12832.0
14664.0
16123.0
16912.0
Testing of new Sankt Petersburg class submarine near Finland. Usual Russian naval beacons and stations are active. All skeds up and running on 18.1 kHz, yes, kHz. Weird Russian FSK mode preceded by N0N open carriers for 10 seconds. Activity reported on the Russian ELF submarine comm station (like the one the US closed down last year), on 82 Hz. Yes that's HERTZ!
UNKNOWN NAME 9/3-8
Joint combat anti-aircraft firing exercise by Russian and Ukrainian troops in Chita Region in Siberia involving S-200 and S-300 systems (Interfax-Ukraine)
[Look for those Russian Morse code air defense stations to be active, with time stamped tracking data. These are kept as a backup for training, and used during these exercises yearly. -Hugh]
COSSACK STEPPE 2006 9/2-15
Military exercise on Zhytomyr training ground (Interfax-Ukraine)
Frequencies worth trying (various modes, all kHz):
18.1
3261.0
3755.0
4079.0
4479.0
5213.0
6779.0
7657.0
7801.0
8345.0
11064.0
11155.0
12832.0
14664.0
16123.0
16912.0
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Tropical Storm John Discussion
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER
LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS
SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
TRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW
315/7. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN...
IF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W 60 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Friday, September 01, 2006
Shuttle on for Sep 6
08.31.06
Grey Hautaluoma
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-0668
Bruce Buckingham
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
RELEASE: 06-308
NASA ANNOUNCES SPACE SHUTTLE ATLANTIS LAUNCH DATE
Following a detailed inspection of NASA's Space Shuttle Atlantis at
the Kennedy Space Center, Fla., the six-member crew has a new launch
date to begin the STS-115 mission to the International Space Station.
The lift-off from Kennedy is set for 12:29 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Sept.
6.
Shuttle managers decided on the launch date after assessing conditions
at Kennedy following Tropical Depression Ernesto. The center's
facilities and Atlantis, which sits on Launch Pad 39-B, sustained no
damage during the storm.
If weather or other issues prevent Atlantis' launch on Sept. 6,
opportunities are available on Sept. 7 and 8. All dates allow for
completion of the mission's objectives and allow for shuttle
undocking from the station by Sept. 17. This is necessary so the
Russian Soyuz taking the next space station crew up to the orbiting
laboratory can launch Sept. 18.
Many of the standard launch preparations were completed before the
shuttle's partial move to the center's landmark Vehicle Assembly
Building and return to the launch pad on Tuesday. During the next
several days, teams will focus on completing pre-launch tasks, so an
official countdown can begin Sunday at 8 a.m. EDT.
The STS-115 crew, Commander Brent Jett, Pilot Chris Ferguson, and
mission specialists Joe Tanner, Dan Burbank, Heide Stefanyshyn-Piper
and Canadian astronaut Steve MacLean, is in Houston conducting launch
simulations. The astronauts will return to Kennedy on Saturday
morning. They already have begun adjusting their sleep cycles to
match their timeline in orbit that changed due to the new launch
time.
During STS-115, Atlantis' astronauts will deliver and install the
17.5-ton, bus-sized P3/P4 integrated truss segment on the station.
The girder-like truss includes a set of giant solar arrays, batteries
and associated electronics. The P3/P4 truss segment will provide
one-fourth of the total power-generation capability for the completed
station.
For information about the STS-115 crew and mission, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/shuttle
Hurricane John Nears Baja in Pacific
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 011811
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
JOHN HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR... BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
WOULD BRING JOHN BACK TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.
JOHN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)