000
WTNT44 KNHC 282053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO
ISAAC...WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WIND
OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED...THE RADAR AND
SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS
BASIS...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 70 KT.
TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES
AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDS
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF
310/07 KT. ISAAC REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG
30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS...
THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC
SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE.
AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE
MODELS...ALBEIT TO VARYING
DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS
NORTHWARD BY DAY 4...AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5.
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12
HOURS...FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF
THE UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
ISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON...IT
IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 28.7N 89.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 29.4N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 30.3N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 31.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 33.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 36.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH
...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 39.0N 90.5W 15 KT 15 MPH
...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 41.5N 86.5W 15 KT 15 MPH
...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Showing posts with label hurricane. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hurricane. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Hurricane Isaac Discussion #31
Isaac is a Hurricane!
Aerial recon has found hurricane force wind near the rapidly developing eye of Isaac. The storm is a hurricane as of 1620 UTC on Tuesday. Forecast track still comes uncomfortably close to New Orleans, though this storm is more of a rain and wind event than one of catastrophic storm surge. Still, surge of 6-12 feet is expected, so those in mandatory evacuation areas have been urged by authorities to leave.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281618.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281618.shtml
Monday, August 27, 2012
T.S. Isaac Discussion #27
000
WTNT44 KNHC 272058
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY
STARTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY
42003. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 7 MB SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 74 KT
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE
HIGHEST BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS ARE
NEAR 58 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
ISAAC WOBBLED WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A REPRESENTATIVE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE
LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER 48
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF...OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS...
NOW HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THOSE TWO
MODELS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD
PATTERN OVER THE CENTER ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING EYE IN RECON DATA.
SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO
PULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI.
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR STILL
LURKS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE CDO FEATURE... WHICH COULD BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE AT ANY
TIME AND DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT
PROCESS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY
AIR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES
ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS
THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND
THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK. THE SLOW FORWARD
SPED OF AROUND 5 KT AFTER LANDFALL
WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 26.4N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 27.4N 87.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 28.6N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 29/1800Z 30.3N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 35.9N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 38.7N 89.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Sunday, August 26, 2012
T.S. Isaac Discussion #23
000
WTNT44 KNHC 262102
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE
HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THERE IS
STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM...
AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY
AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...
AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.
ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER
FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED
MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING
TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...
THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS
TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT
300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT
LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL
TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL
SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND
WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Six Air Recon Flights Tomorrow (27 Aug UTC)
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261342
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 26 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-099
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76--
A. 27/1800,2100,28/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2809A ISAAC
C. 27/1545Z
D. 26.8N 85.6W
E. 27/1730Z TO 28/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 2909A ISAAC
C. 27/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 42--
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA2 3009A ISAAC
C. 27/2000Z
D. 27.4N 86.4W
E. 27/2200Z TO 28/0200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--
A. 28/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 3109A ISAAC
C. 28/0100Z
D. 27.5N 86.5W
E. 28/0230Z TO 28/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE --NOAA42--
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA2 3209A ISAAC
C. 28/0800Z
D. 28.5N 87.6W
E. 28/1000Z TO 28/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT SIX --TEAL 75--
A. 28/1200,1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 3309A ISAAC
C. 28/1015Z
D. 28.5N 87.6W
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 3-HRLY FIXES CONTINUE.
A WP-3 MISSION FOR 28/2000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
JWP
Saturday, August 25, 2012
T.S. Isaac Discussion #19 (25/2100 AUG UTC)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 252102
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED... WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18.
ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A LARGE
LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND
VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER WILL
LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER.
BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION... THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORM
COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...
AS THE UKMET IS SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST
MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK
FREE OF OR ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER
THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96
HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR IS STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD AT
LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
WHILE THE CYCLONE REACHES OPEN WATER.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A VERY
FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.
SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD ISAAC
ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE
FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.6N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.1N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 25.2N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 31.5N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
7 Hurricane Recon Flights Tomorrow
NHC TCPOD:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 251602
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 25 AUGUST
2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE
PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-098
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76--
A. 26/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 2109A ISAAC
C.
26/1200Z
D. 23.6N 79.5W
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT
TWO --NOAA 49--
A.
27/0000Z
B.
NOAA9 2209A ISAAC
C.
26/1730Z
D.
NA
E.
NA
F.
41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 42--
A. 27/0000Z
B. NOAA2 2309A ISAAC
C. 26/2000Z
D. 24.7N 81.3W
E. 27/0100Z TO 27/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--
A.
27/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 2409A ISAAC
C.
26/2130Z
D. 24.7N 81.3W
E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0600Z
F.
SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE --NOAA49--
A. 27/1200Z
B. NOAA9 2509A ISAAC
C. 27/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT SIX --TEAL 75--
A.
27/0900,1200,1500Z
B.
AFXXX 2609A ISAAC
C.
26/0645Z
D.
25.6N 82.6W
E.
27/0830Z TO 27/1500Z
F.
SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT SEVEN --NOAA 42--
A. 27/1200Z
B. NOAA2 2709A ISAAC
C. 27/0800Z
D. 25.9N 83.1W
E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 3-HRLY FIXES
CONTINUE. .
G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. WP-3 FLYING
EVER 12 HRS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
JWP
Thursday, August 25, 2011
CT, DE Declare States of Emergency
08/25/2011 08:15 PM
This brings the list to CT, DE, MD, NC, NJ, NY, and VA.
CT:
DE:
This brings the list to CT, DE, MD, NC, NJ, NY, and VA.
CT:
August 25, 2011
GOV. MALLOY SIGNS DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY
(HARTFORD, CT) – In advance of Hurricane Irene’s likely impact on Connecticut, Governor Dannel P. Malloy today signed a Declaration of Emergency this afternoon. The Declaration of Emergency provides Governor Malloy with a number of emergency powers, including:
The ability to order evacuations of all or part of the population of a stricken or threatened area and take necessary steps for receipt and care of evacuees
The ability to modify or suspend any state statute, regulation, or requirement (for example: altering work hours, waiving licensing requirements, etc.)
The ability to order civil preparedness forces into action
The ability to designate vehicle and person routes and movements
“The forecast path of Hurricane Irene has convinced me that the signing of this declaration is necessary, and will help us react more quickly and effectively in the event of a serious weather event,” said Governor Malloy. “I will continue to work with state and local officials and authorities to ensure that our state is as prepared as possible for Hurricane Irene, and can react as efficiently as possible on behalf of our residents.”
For Immediate Release: August 25, 2011
Contact: Colleen Flanagan
Colleen.Flanagan@ct.gov
860-524-7308 (office)
860-770-8090 (cell)
Twitter: @GovMalloyOffice
Facebook: Office of Governor Dannel P. Malloy
DE:
All Counties
Special Travel Alert
AS OF 6 PM (8/25/11) A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF DELAWARE AND GOV MARKELL HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS (NON-RESIDENTS) ALONG DELAWARE'S COASTAL AREAS AND IS STRONGLY URGING RESIDENTS WITH THE ABILITY TO LEAVE BEACH COMMUNITIES TO DEPART AS SOON AS PRACTICALLY POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE IRENE, MANDATORY EVACUATIONS OF COASTAL AREA RESIDENTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY.
Hurricane Irene Advisory #22
000
WTNT34 KNHC 252051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 252051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Irene Advisory #21A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 251745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 251745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Irene Link List #2
Unsorted:
#Irene
#Hurricane
#Ireneageddon
#RedCross
@wunderground
FEMA:
@fema/irene
@femaregion4
http://www.citizencorps.gov
@Citizen_Corps
ARRL:
http://www.arrl.org/irene
@ARRL
DE:
http://deldot.gov
@DelawareDOT
MD:
#Mdhurricane
NC:
http://ncdot.gov
http://news14weather.blogspot.com/
@news14raleigh
@LeeRingerNews14
NY:
@NYSEMO
NYC:
http://gis.nyc.gov/oem/he/index.htm
@NotifyNYC
SC:
South Carolina EMD
http://www.scemd.org
@EMDSC
#Irene
#Hurricane
#Ireneageddon
#RedCross
@wunderground
FEMA:
@fema/irene
@femaregion4
http://www.citizencorps.gov
@Citizen_Corps
ARRL:
http://www.arrl.org/irene
@ARRL
DE:
http://deldot.gov
@DelawareDOT
MD:
#Mdhurricane
NC:
http://ncdot.gov
http://news14weather.blogspot.com/
@news14raleigh
@LeeRingerNews14
NY:
@NYSEMO
NYC:
http://gis.nyc.gov/oem/he/index.htm
@NotifyNYC
SC:
South Carolina EMD
http://www.scemd.org
@EMDSC
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Hurricane Irene Frequency List #1
3122.0 US Coast Guard, safety of flight
3130.0 US Navy FACSFAC Jacksonville, FL "Sea Lord"
3171.4 Red Cross disaster (F-92)
3573.0 (CW) Carolinas Net
3696.0 (LSB) Bahamas Weather Net
3820.0 (LSB) Maryland Emergency Phone Net
3865.0 (LSB) West Virginia Emergency Net
3907.0 (LSB) Coastal Carolina Emergency Net Dy 0000
3910.0 (LSB) Regional Emergency Primary Channel:
3913.0 (LSB) NY State
3915.0 (LSB) South Carolina Emergency/Traffic Nets
3915.0 (LSB) Massachusetts/Rhode Island
3917.0 (LSB) E Pennsylvania
3923.0 (LSB) North Carolina Evening Net
3923.0 (LSB) Tar Heel Emergency Net (alt 7232)
3927.0 (LSB) North Carolina Morning Net, ARES
3937.0 (LSB) W. Massachusetts
3940.0 (LSB) SATERN Alternate
3947.0 (LSB) Virginia health & welfare (alt 7240)
3950.0 (LSB) National Hurricane Watch, occasional night
3960.0 (LSB) Northeast Coast Hurricane Net
3980.0 (LSB) SE Virginia ARES
3993.5 (LSB) Regional Common Frequency
4003.0 Bahamas Air Sea Rescue, WX broadcasts dy 1100
4125.0 Maritime clg and distress freq, some weather info
4235.0 (Fax) USCG Boston, MA, weather fax, eve/night
4614.5 COTHEN
4780.0 FEMA
5136.4 Red Cross F-93
5141.4 Red Cross F-94
5211.0 National Emergency Coordination Net night primary
5236.0 SHARES Co-ordination Network Ch-1 (night voice primary)
5250.0 COTHEN
5320.0 USCG Groups, Miami, FL, and Portsmouth, VA; CG Auxiliary
5402.0 FEMA
5422.5 USCG Auxiliary
5696.0 USCG air-ground/safety of flight
5732.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
5821.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-14"
5901.0 SHARES National Net (Night Alt)
5909.5 COTHEN
6106.0 FEMA
6800.0 SHARES Coordination Network (PACTOR BBS)
6809.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-21"
6859.5 Red Cross F-95
7096.0 (LSB) Bahamas Weather Net
7232.0 (LSB) Tar Heel Emergency Net (Alt)
7243.0 (LSB) SC Emergency Net
7245.0 (LSB) NY State RACES
7250.0 (LSB) Salvation Army SATERN Sat 1700
7255.0 (LSB) East Coast Amateur Radio Svc (ECARS)
7260.0 (LSB) Virginia Emercency Net (Alt)
7265.8 (LSB) Salvation Army SATERN (Alt) Sat 1630
7275.0 (LSB) Georgia
7348.0 FEMA
7527.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
7550.5 Red Cross F-96 (Primary)
7632.0 SHARES National Coord Net (Night Pri)
7635.0 CAP, National Calling & Emergency
7697.0 Red Cross F-97
8156.0 Royal Bahamas Defence Force (coast guard & police)
8764.0 USCG, Portsmouth, VA, Atlantic WX
8912.0 COTHEN ALE/USB
8933.0 New York LDOC
8983.0 USCG Air-Ground/ Safety of Flight
9064.0 SHARES National Coord Net (Night Alt)
10194.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-25" ALE/USB/LSB
10242.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
10493.0 National Emergency Coordination Net day primary
10588.0 FEMA /USCG/ always busy in hurricanes ALE/USB/LSB
11342.0 New York LDOC
11494.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
11975.0 CAP Voice
12087.0 National Guard Net ALE/USB
12216.0 FEMA
12222.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
12290.0 USCG calling/watchkeeping (Simplex)
13312.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
13446.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-36" various modes
13907.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
13956.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-48", some NECN use (USB/LSB)
14260.0 UN Net
14265.0 Salvation Army SATERN Net Primary M-F 1400
14268.0 UN Radio Readiness Group
14270.0 Red Cross Net
14283.0 UN Relief Net
14293.0 Red Cross use
14300.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net Dy 1600
14300.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1600/1700
14300.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net (daily)
14300.0 Intercontinental Net
14303.0 ARRL International Assistance & Traffic Net
14310.0 Maritime Emergency Net dy 0400
14313.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net Alternate-1
14313.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1600
14325.0 Hurricane Watch Net, primary fq,
14327.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1700/1800
14340.0 Maritime Emergency Net dy 0400 & 1800
14396.5 SHARES National Coord Net (Day Primary)
14450.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-41," evac heard here
14567.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-39," NECN primary in past
14582.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
14776.0 FEMA
14836.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-43"
14902.0 SHARES - CAP rescue and relief, all regions
15088.0 USCG Air-Ground safety of flight
15867.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
17314.0 USCG, Portsmouth, VA, Atlantic WX 1715
18594.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
20890.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
21400.0 Transatlantic net (amateur)
21400.0 Atlantic Maritime Net
23214.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
25350.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
COTHEN (Customs Over-The-Horizon Enforcement Network) is an interagency ALE and follow-on voice network used by USCG, ICE, CBP, and several other agencies. Much of the rescue and emergency traffic has migrated there.
3130.0 US Navy FACSFAC Jacksonville, FL "Sea Lord"
3171.4 Red Cross disaster (F-92)
3573.0 (CW) Carolinas Net
3696.0 (LSB) Bahamas Weather Net
3820.0 (LSB) Maryland Emergency Phone Net
3865.0 (LSB) West Virginia Emergency Net
3907.0 (LSB) Coastal Carolina Emergency Net Dy 0000
3910.0 (LSB) Regional Emergency Primary Channel:
3913.0 (LSB) NY State
3915.0 (LSB) South Carolina Emergency/Traffic Nets
3915.0 (LSB) Massachusetts/Rhode Island
3917.0 (LSB) E Pennsylvania
3923.0 (LSB) North Carolina Evening Net
3923.0 (LSB) Tar Heel Emergency Net (alt 7232)
3927.0 (LSB) North Carolina Morning Net, ARES
3937.0 (LSB) W. Massachusetts
3940.0 (LSB) SATERN Alternate
3947.0 (LSB) Virginia health & welfare (alt 7240)
3950.0 (LSB) National Hurricane Watch, occasional night
3960.0 (LSB) Northeast Coast Hurricane Net
3980.0 (LSB) SE Virginia ARES
3993.5 (LSB) Regional Common Frequency
4003.0 Bahamas Air Sea Rescue, WX broadcasts dy 1100
4125.0 Maritime clg and distress freq, some weather info
4235.0 (Fax) USCG Boston, MA, weather fax, eve/night
4614.5 COTHEN
4780.0 FEMA
5136.4 Red Cross F-93
5141.4 Red Cross F-94
5211.0 National Emergency Coordination Net night primary
5236.0 SHARES Co-ordination Network Ch-1 (night voice primary)
5250.0 COTHEN
5320.0 USCG Groups, Miami, FL, and Portsmouth, VA; CG Auxiliary
5402.0 FEMA
5422.5 USCG Auxiliary
5696.0 USCG air-ground/safety of flight
5732.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
5821.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-14"
5901.0 SHARES National Net (Night Alt)
5909.5 COTHEN
6106.0 FEMA
6800.0 SHARES Coordination Network (PACTOR BBS)
6809.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-21"
6859.5 Red Cross F-95
7096.0 (LSB) Bahamas Weather Net
7232.0 (LSB) Tar Heel Emergency Net (Alt)
7243.0 (LSB) SC Emergency Net
7245.0 (LSB) NY State RACES
7250.0 (LSB) Salvation Army SATERN Sat 1700
7255.0 (LSB) East Coast Amateur Radio Svc (ECARS)
7260.0 (LSB) Virginia Emercency Net (Alt)
7265.8 (LSB) Salvation Army SATERN (Alt) Sat 1630
7275.0 (LSB) Georgia
7348.0 FEMA
7527.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
7550.5 Red Cross F-96 (Primary)
7632.0 SHARES National Coord Net (Night Pri)
7635.0 CAP, National Calling & Emergency
7697.0 Red Cross F-97
8156.0 Royal Bahamas Defence Force (coast guard & police)
8764.0 USCG, Portsmouth, VA, Atlantic WX
8912.0 COTHEN ALE/USB
8933.0 New York LDOC
8983.0 USCG Air-Ground/ Safety of Flight
9064.0 SHARES National Coord Net (Night Alt)
10194.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-25" ALE/USB/LSB
10242.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
10493.0 National Emergency Coordination Net day primary
10588.0 FEMA /USCG/ always busy in hurricanes ALE/USB/LSB
11342.0 New York LDOC
11494.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
11975.0 CAP Voice
12087.0 National Guard Net ALE/USB
12216.0 FEMA
12222.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
12290.0 USCG calling/watchkeeping (Simplex)
13312.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
13446.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-36" various modes
13907.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
13956.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-48", some NECN use (USB/LSB)
14260.0 UN Net
14265.0 Salvation Army SATERN Net Primary M-F 1400
14268.0 UN Radio Readiness Group
14270.0 Red Cross Net
14283.0 UN Relief Net
14293.0 Red Cross use
14300.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net Dy 1600
14300.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1600/1700
14300.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net (daily)
14300.0 Intercontinental Net
14303.0 ARRL International Assistance & Traffic Net
14310.0 Maritime Emergency Net dy 0400
14313.0 Maritime Mobile Service Net Alternate-1
14313.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1600
14325.0 Hurricane Watch Net, primary fq,
14327.0 US Coast Guard Amateur Radio Net S 1700/1800
14340.0 Maritime Emergency Net dy 0400 & 1800
14396.5 SHARES National Coord Net (Day Primary)
14450.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-41," evac heard here
14567.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-39," NECN primary in past
14582.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
14776.0 FEMA
14836.0 FEMA "Foxtrot-43"
14902.0 SHARES - CAP rescue and relief, all regions
15088.0 USCG Air-Ground safety of flight
15867.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
17314.0 USCG, Portsmouth, VA, Atlantic WX 1715
18594.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
20890.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
21400.0 Transatlantic net (amateur)
21400.0 Atlantic Maritime Net
23214.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
25350.0 (ALE/USB) COTHEN
COTHEN (Customs Over-The-Horizon Enforcement Network) is an interagency ALE and follow-on voice network used by USCG, ICE, CBP, and several other agencies. Much of the rescue and emergency traffic has migrated there.
14325 kHz USB Hurricane Watch Net Activates
The US Hurricane Watch Net activated for Irene at 24/1300 August UTC on its usual frequency of 14325 kHz USB. Several stations in the southeastern US have shared net control duties. Right now, they have finished passing Advisory #18, and they are looking for stations in the Bahamas with information.
Irene is on a track right up the US East Coast, meaning a few miles/km of uncertainty can cause a great difference in where landfall ultimately comes, if it ever does. Also, the storm is becoming wide, with (currently) a ~60 mile radius of hurricane force winds. At this point, just about the whole US coast from SC up to ME has to watch this storm carefully. That's a BIG area.
Irene is on a track right up the US East Coast, meaning a few miles/km of uncertainty can cause a great difference in where landfall ultimately comes, if it ever does. Also, the storm is becoming wide, with (currently) a ~60 mile radius of hurricane force winds. At this point, just about the whole US coast from SC up to ME has to watch this storm carefully. That's a BIG area.
Dangerous Hurricane Irene Advisory #18
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242052
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN THE BAHAMAS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 242052
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN THE BAHAMAS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Cat 3 Hurricane Irene Advisory #17
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Hurricane Irene Advisory #15A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Hurricane Irene Advisory #15
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
WTNT34 KNHC 240258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Irene Advisory #13A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 231754
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AN OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE AT PROVIDENCIALES IN THE CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. STORM SURGE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
WTNT34 KNHC 231754
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AN OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE AT PROVIDENCIALES IN THE CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. STORM SURGE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
Monday, August 22, 2011
Hurricane Irene Discussion #8
000
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Irene Advisory #8A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 221748
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 221748
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)