HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 50SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT.......400NE 350SE 350SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..550NE 750SE 995SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 53.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 50.2N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...660NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
34 KT...720NE 600SE 500SW 750NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 55.3N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...350NE 0SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT...420NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.
34 KT...450NE 650SE 570SW 720NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 59.8N 51.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
34 KT...500NE 800SE 240SW 450NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 62.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 360SE 360SW 220NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 63.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 240SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 62.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.2N 52.8W
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Monday, January 05, 2009
Will There Be A Cycle 24?
Your guess is as good as mine. Both of our guesses are as good as those of the most high powered astrophysicists, solar-terrestrial experts, and everyone else out there.
In short... we're in new territory here.
One good thing is that I found a low-noise discussion forum where they discuss space weather and radio propagation instead of "global warming" and government policy.
Right here:
http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=general
In short... we're in new territory here.
One good thing is that I found a low-noise discussion forum where they discuss space weather and radio propagation instead of "global warming" and government policy.
Right here:
http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=general
Is Solar-Terrestrial Activity the Lowest Ever?
Well, maybe not. However, one important index is showing the lowest long term averages since that data series began in the 20th century.
Ap, the planetary "A" index derived from measurements of geomagnetic activity, continues to show historically low smoothed averages. Examination of data shows that this phenomenon began in 2005, and continues up to the most recent measurements permitted by the design of the average.
Ap, of course, does not directly measure solar activity. However, it is a reliable indicator of magnetic activity caused solely by energetic events on the sun.
Scientists are divided on the prospect of a low or nonexistent Cycle 24. There is also an ongoing debate as to whether such a misfire would mark the start of a major extended solar lull (a "Dalton Minimum"), causing an extended spell of cold climate (a "Little Ice Age").
Just about everything readily available online is more about politics than science. This is because the solar lull has become a major reason for contention between advocates of different government policies with regard to "global warming." The result is that it's hard to find anything addressing prospects for radio propagation.
And so we wait and see, while band conditions remain dreadful. Maybe there will be a Cycle 24 strong enough to create the improved HF propagation that we've become used to, and maybe there won't. Meanwhile, the weak signals are further disrupted by a huge increase in noise from popular consumer electronics.
Not all of the depressions this year are economic. It does appear as if HF DXing has fallen on hard times.
Ap, the planetary "A" index derived from measurements of geomagnetic activity, continues to show historically low smoothed averages. Examination of data shows that this phenomenon began in 2005, and continues up to the most recent measurements permitted by the design of the average.
Ap, of course, does not directly measure solar activity. However, it is a reliable indicator of magnetic activity caused solely by energetic events on the sun.
Scientists are divided on the prospect of a low or nonexistent Cycle 24. There is also an ongoing debate as to whether such a misfire would mark the start of a major extended solar lull (a "Dalton Minimum"), causing an extended spell of cold climate (a "Little Ice Age").
Just about everything readily available online is more about politics than science. This is because the solar lull has become a major reason for contention between advocates of different government policies with regard to "global warming." The result is that it's hard to find anything addressing prospects for radio propagation.
And so we wait and see, while band conditions remain dreadful. Maybe there will be a Cycle 24 strong enough to create the improved HF propagation that we've become used to, and maybe there won't. Meanwhile, the weak signals are further disrupted by a huge increase in noise from popular consumer electronics.
Not all of the depressions this year are economic. It does appear as if HF DXing has fallen on hard times.
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