Solar Flux Hits 143, SSN is 118!

hfradio.org via NW7US

Cycle 24 has done its predicted fast vertical rise. In maybe two months, it's gone from peaks around 88 to today's levels which are respectable by any standards. The daily WWV (Penticton) uncorrected solar flux for March 6 is 143, highest since January of 2005! The Smoothed Sunspot Number is 118, highest since July of that year.

Band conditions have improved dramatically just in the past few days. For example, the band around 17 MHz did not close from California to Japan until 0400 UTC, or two hours later than it did Friday. The 9-10 MHz SWBC band is wide open from California to the Middle East at 0440, and shows no sign of changing any time soon. This afternoon, some MUFs probably went clear out of HF, with good, steady 10 meter signals from the Eastern US all day.

This is obviously game on for Cycle 24. It's late, but it's here, and now it's hard to turn off the radio.

Daily Solar Flux Reaches 90

Solar activity is definitely increasing. New active region #1045 really cranked it up over the weekend. It is now huge, with multiple complex spots and potential for more bright M-class solar flares such as the one yesterday. Noise bursts are also being monitored in the 21 MHz range.

Geomagnetic activity remains quiet, but region 1045 and an adjacent coronal hole are likely to change that.

Meanwhile, another large and very active region, #1046, is rotating around the limb, promising to keep things busy for a while longer.

Largest Cycle 24 Sunspot Group Yet

Sunspot group 1025 has appeared on the sun. It is 7 times the diameter of Earth, and definitely part of Cycle 24. Best yet, it is very active, with well-developed plage and strongly contorted magnetic lines.

Daily radio flux has jumped to 82, with the latest K index remaining low at 1. These are numbers which can definitely improve HF propagation.

Unfortunately, a C-class flare in this region has caused a coronal mass ejection aimed in the general direction of the Earth. It will arrive in about a day and a half, probably while we still have a southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bz). It is likely to cause beautiful auroras, and not-so-beautiful degradation of high-latitude and transpolar paths.

Plenty of data on both events is at spaceweather.com.

Will There Be A Cycle 24?

Your guess is as good as mine. Both of our guesses are as good as those of the most high powered astrophysicists, solar-terrestrial experts, and everyone else out there.

In short... we're in new territory here.

One good thing is that I found a low-noise discussion forum where they discuss space weather and radio propagation instead of "global warming" and government policy.

Right here:
http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=general