Solar Flux Hits 143, SSN is 118!

hfradio.org via NW7US

Cycle 24 has done its predicted fast vertical rise. In maybe two months, it's gone from peaks around 88 to today's levels which are respectable by any standards. The daily WWV (Penticton) uncorrected solar flux for March 6 is 143, highest since January of 2005! The Smoothed Sunspot Number is 118, highest since July of that year.

Band conditions have improved dramatically just in the past few days. For example, the band around 17 MHz did not close from California to Japan until 0400 UTC, or two hours later than it did Friday. The 9-10 MHz SWBC band is wide open from California to the Middle East at 0440, and shows no sign of changing any time soon. This afternoon, some MUFs probably went clear out of HF, with good, steady 10 meter signals from the Eastern US all day.

This is obviously game on for Cycle 24. It's late, but it's here, and now it's hard to turn off the radio.

NASA Unveils SDO First Light

NASA has publicly presented data from its new Solar Dynamics Observatory in a news conference that just ended.  SDO gathered a great deal of data on the recent flares and CMEs that messed up band conditions a few days back, and the presentation was pretty jaw-dropping for those who are really into solar-terrestrial physics and how they influence what we hear on the radio.

NASA has the first light images and videos here.

Solar Flux Exceeds 90

Active region 1040, a Cycle 24 spot, has rotated into position to affect Earth. Daily uncorrected solar flux has risen above 90 for the first time in quite a while.

If you thought band conditions were better today, well, that's because they are.

Largest Cycle 24 Sunspot Group Yet

Sunspot group 1025 has appeared on the sun. It is 7 times the diameter of Earth, and definitely part of Cycle 24. Best yet, it is very active, with well-developed plage and strongly contorted magnetic lines.

Daily radio flux has jumped to 82, with the latest K index remaining low at 1. These are numbers which can definitely improve HF propagation.

Unfortunately, a C-class flare in this region has caused a coronal mass ejection aimed in the general direction of the Earth. It will arrive in about a day and a half, probably while we still have a southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bz). It is likely to cause beautiful auroras, and not-so-beautiful degradation of high-latitude and transpolar paths.

Plenty of data on both events is at spaceweather.com.

Utility World Blog Stirs Back To Life

I just noticed that i've only made something like 3 posts to this blog in the past month.

Apologies are in order. I was out of town and away from any radios, but I had a laptop so there's no excuse.

I'll do better.

A few things are happening in the utility scene right now that are worth watching.

The most newsworthy one is that November/December of 2009 is the Moment of Truth for solar Cycle 24. There are indications that this late cycle is beginning to rise, pretty much in line with the scaled-back newer predictions. Some daily fluxes around 81 have occurred, which are promising. Expect some definite changes in conditions if it gets over 90 for any length of time.

If the cycle does not rise at all, and we fall back into spotless days, weeks, and maybe months, all bets are off. Meanwhile, a lively and information-packed web site for all this is SolarCycle24.com.

Will There Be A Cycle 24?

Your guess is as good as mine. Both of our guesses are as good as those of the most high powered astrophysicists, solar-terrestrial experts, and everyone else out there.

In short... we're in new territory here.

One good thing is that I found a low-noise discussion forum where they discuss space weather and radio propagation instead of "global warming" and government policy.

Right here:
http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=general

Is Solar-Terrestrial Activity the Lowest Ever?

Well, maybe not. However, one important index is showing the lowest long term averages since that data series began in the 20th century.

Ap, the planetary "A" index derived from measurements of geomagnetic activity, continues to show historically low smoothed averages. Examination of data shows that this phenomenon began in 2005, and continues up to the most recent measurements permitted by the design of the average.

Ap, of course, does not directly measure solar activity. However, it is a reliable indicator of magnetic activity caused solely by energetic events on the sun.

Scientists are divided on the prospect of a low or nonexistent Cycle 24. There is also an ongoing debate as to whether such a misfire would mark the start of a major extended solar lull (a "Dalton Minimum"), causing an extended spell of cold climate (a "Little Ice Age").

Just about everything readily available online is more about politics than science. This is because the solar lull has become a major reason for contention between advocates of different government policies with regard to "global warming." The result is that it's hard to find anything addressing prospects for radio propagation.

And so we wait and see, while band conditions remain dreadful. Maybe there will be a Cycle 24 strong enough to create the improved HF propagation that we've become used to, and maybe there won't. Meanwhile, the weak signals are further disrupted by a huge increase in noise from popular consumer electronics.

Not all of the depressions this year are economic. It does appear as if HF DXing has fallen on hard times.

Cycle 24 Finally Underway

Another obvious Cycle 24 sunspot group has been observed for the past several days. While daily fluxes remain about as low as they ever get, there is finally repeated evidence that the new cycle is underway after a long delay.

Cycle 24 Spots: Can It Be?

A small sunspot group has appeared with a magnetic polarity suggesting the beginning (again) of solar cycle 24. Maybe this time it's for real. For what it's worth, this group actually has a number (11001), which the previous faint spot did not.

Definitive statements always wait on moving averages that haven't happened yet, but we do know that the end of cycle 23 had a double minimum, making 24 very, very late. Before this, we had gone at least a month with no observable sunspots at all.

As we know, many observers are predicting a low peak, followed by a pause in solar activity resembling the Dalton Minimum observed from 1790 to 1830. These minimums tend to appear at the same time as cold weather spells aka "little ice ages."

While a "little ice age" in the 21st century is a very interesting hypothesis, there are other variables influencing climate. I can't yet share the euphoria of many Internet writers that we can now cancel global warming. We will just have to wait for the data on this one too.

I hope that, this time, the solar activity really is on the way up. HF has become quite boring here in The Land That Shortwave Forgot.


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Photo credit: SOHO/MDI

Wednesday's Solar Flux Was NOT the Lowest!

An important correction to all the speculation on Wednesday's solar flux comes from the mailing list of Thomas F. Giella (KN4LF). After searching the data (available here), he's come up with a daily uncorrected 10.7 cm solar radio flux of 62.6 on November 3, 1954.

Personal examination of the data confirms this.

Of course, there is some debate regarding the validity of direct comparisons. Several variables exist, which are way too technical to get into here.

Yesterday's discussion of why solar fluxes adjust higher in summer and lower in winter still holds. The Earth's orbit is still at aphelion in July. That makes a November daily flux of 62.6 even more remarkable, since it adjusted downward to a phenomenal 61.6. No wonder the formula for flux vs sunspot numbers should be considered an approximation, since it doesn't allow anything lower than 67!!!

Those seeking any predictive value from Wednesday's low solar flux would be cautioned that less than four years later, in 1958, came the start of the highest solar maximum ever measured, with many uncorrected daily fluxes in the high 300's. While this does not change the fact that Cycle 24 is VERY late, we should remember that the sun will do what it wants to do.

Lowest Solar Flux Ever Measured?

Scientists can't decide if this depressing solar cycle just recorded the most depressingly low solar radio flux ever measured.

July 16's reading was a staggeringly low 64.2 sfu (solar flux units), according to the Canadian observatory which makes this measurement. If this holds up, it will be the lowest since this data series began around 1950.

The "Solar Flux" we talk about is an uncorrected measurement of solar radio noise taken three times daily, on a standard frequency of 2800 MHz (10.7 cm). This is an important frequency in radio astronomy, as it comes from a certain hyperfine quantum transition in hydrogen gas excited by solar magnetic flux that also causes "sunspots." It is a much newer data series than the "sunspot number" which is derived from a number of amateur observers worldwide who literally count spots on the sun's disk.

They haven't had much to count recently, as the sun is still in a very deep minimum at the end of a very long cycle (#23).

The most commonly used formula relating solar flux to sunspot numbers in an average case does not allow values lower than around 67, which is considered a completely quiet sun. However, lower values do occur in the daily uncorrected observations. Before this summer's reading, the record low was a 64.7 observed on July 18, 1996.

What's up here? Well, note that both lows were in mid-July, when the Earth is at aphelion (the farthest point from the sun). This wouldn't be an issue if the Earth's orbit were completely circular, but of course like most orbits it's slightly elliptical. Therefore the greatest downward deviation from the average quiet sun case is in summer - and that's when we read these low uncorrected solar fluxes. It's also why the solar flux is corrected to take the Earth's orbit into account.

Presumably when the corrected flux comes out, it'll be a little less depressing. Not a lot, but just a little.

New Cycle 24 Spot Emerges

After a couple of days with no visible sunspots whatsoever, a tiny Cycle 24 spot has just emerged.

Currently, there is something of a controversy over the precise nature of Cycle 24. While the mainstream prediction is for a fairly energetic cycle, there is an alternate theory. Its proponents argue that the length of Cycle 23 (longest ever recorded) is evidence that Cycle 24 will be late and weak, and in fact will begin a long term decline in solar activity leading to a sort of mini Maunder Minimum (the period in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries of no sunspots at all, and a mini ice age in Europe). This, of course, would pretty much spell the end of consistent F-region skip propagation above 21 MHz.

Note that recent fading on HF was the result of a coronal hole, not sunspots or solar flares.

We shall see what we shall see.