000
WTNT34 KNHC 131759
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM... SOUTH OF TYLER TEXAS...AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IKE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Showing posts with label ike. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ike. Show all posts
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Late Night 9/13 SoCal ALE, Mostly Ike
4490.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 3), snd, 0341, 0441, 0541
5135.0 0401MT (US SECURE Net) snd, 0428
5378.0 FC4FEM (FEMA Region 4, GA) calling/LQA AL4FEM (Possibly Alabama), 0442
5378.0 FC4FEM calling/LQA MS4FEM (Possibly Mississippi), 0514
5711.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 4), snd 0541
6809.0 FC4FEM snd, 0420
The eye of Ike is nearing Galveston, TX at 0606 UTC. Water is coming up over the sea wall, and there are fires burning.
USCG will be making many rescues when it becomes light and weather improves. COTHEN is worth checking out.
5135.0 0401MT (US SECURE Net) snd, 0428
5378.0 FC4FEM (FEMA Region 4, GA) calling/LQA AL4FEM (Possibly Alabama), 0442
5378.0 FC4FEM calling/LQA MS4FEM (Possibly Mississippi), 0514
5711.0 043NCS (SHARES Coordination Net Channel 4), snd 0541
6809.0 FC4FEM snd, 0420
The eye of Ike is nearing Galveston, TX at 0606 UTC. Water is coming up over the sea wall, and there are fires burning.
USCG will be making many rescues when it becomes light and weather improves. COTHEN is worth checking out.
9/13 (UTC) SoCal ALE Hits, Mostly Ike-Related
4490.0 SND KNY58 02:38:33
4490.0 SND 045NCS 03.41.42
5135.0 SND SEMO05 02:26:46
5711.0 SND 043NCS 02:41:27
6806.0 SND 0011ARCAP 03:12:38
7348.0 SND FC4FEM 00:20:14
9414.5 SND ARC
9414.5 SND 119CDCS05 00:50:21
11217.0 SND KTQ313 00:52:05
11217.0 SND AAT 00:45:55
12164.0 SND 119CDCS05 00:43:27
12216.0 SND VA3FEM 00:33:53
FC6:
4780.0
5402.0
6809.0
7348.0
9462.0
13446.0
VA3FEM:
6809.0
9462.0
12216.0
FC4FEM:
6809.0
7348.0
9462.0
10194.0
0011ARCAP = US Civil Air Patrol
043NCS = SHARES Natl. Comm. System Liason, unknown location
119CDS05 = US Centers For Disease Control, NPHRN
FC4FEM = FEMA Region 4, Atlanta, GA
KNY58 = SHARES NCS Liason, Gadsen, AL
KTQ313 = US Environmental Protection Agency, Montgomery AL
SEMO05 = NY State Emergency Mgmt. Office
VA3FEM = Unknown FEMA
FEMA NTCN HF ALE Net:
4780
5378
5402
5821
6809
7348
8050
9462
10194
10588
12216
13446
9/12 SoCal Federal Logs
Noteworthy COTHEN & Misc Federal ALE hits:
COTHEN
ALE Addresses: 500, C06, CRB, D70, F33, I08, J01, J10, J19, J23, J30, J31, LNT, OPB, P03, P21, PAC, RDC, T16, T47, T72, T9A, TSC
Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350
500 = USCG Coast Guard 1500 (HC-130H)
C06 = US Army Corps of Engineers Rapid Response Vehicle #6, TX
CRB/T9A/T16/T47 = Probable US Customs & Border Protection, Caribbean
F33 = USCG HU-25, Corpus Christi, TX
FC6 = FEMA Region 6, TX
J01 = USCG 6001, MH-60J helo, E-City
J10 = USCG 6010, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J19 = USCG 6019, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J23 = USCG 6023, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
J31 = USCG 6031, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
LNT = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Atlantic, Norfolk, VA
OPB = US Drug Enforcement Agency OPBAT (Operations, Bahamas And Tortugas), Nassau
P03 = Possible USCG Air Station, E-City
PAC = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Pacific, Pt. Reyes, CA
RDC = USCG Cutter Campbell (WMEC-909)
TSC = COTHEN Technical Service Center/ Remote/ Natl Law Enforcement Comm, FL
TX6 = FEMA, unknown Texas, possible truncated address
USDAEOC2 = US Dept. of Agriculture Alternate Emergency Operations Center, MD
(11494 is also a USDA freq)
Note: Coast Guard aircraft are already working rescues as of Friday afternoon.
8912.0 CRB TO T9A 22:49:40
11494.0 USDAEOC2 SND 22:58:05
13446.0 FC6 TO TX6 23:18:23 (LQA)
15867.0 T9A SND 21:41:49
15867.0 RDC SND 22:03:00
18594.0 RDC SND 22:03:00
20890.0 RDC SND 22:03:43
COTHEN
ALE Addresses: 500, C06, CRB, D70, F33, I08, J01, J10, J19, J23, J30, J31, LNT, OPB, P03, P21, PAC, RDC, T16, T47, T72, T9A, TSC
Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350
500 = USCG Coast Guard 1500 (HC-130H)
C06 = US Army Corps of Engineers Rapid Response Vehicle #6, TX
CRB/T9A/T16/T47 = Probable US Customs & Border Protection, Caribbean
F33 = USCG HU-25, Corpus Christi, TX
FC6 = FEMA Region 6, TX
J01 = USCG 6001, MH-60J helo, E-City
J10 = USCG 6010, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J19 = USCG 6019, MH-60J helo, Clearwater, FL
J23 = USCG 6023, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
J31 = USCG 6031, HH-60J helo, Mobile, AL
LNT = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Atlantic, Norfolk, VA
OPB = US Drug Enforcement Agency OPBAT (Operations, Bahamas And Tortugas), Nassau
P03 = Possible USCG Air Station, E-City
PAC = USCG Communications Area Master Station, Pacific, Pt. Reyes, CA
RDC = USCG Cutter Campbell (WMEC-909)
TSC = COTHEN Technical Service Center/ Remote/ Natl Law Enforcement Comm, FL
TX6 = FEMA, unknown Texas, possible truncated address
USDAEOC2 = US Dept. of Agriculture Alternate Emergency Operations Center, MD
(11494 is also a USDA freq)
Note: Coast Guard aircraft are already working rescues as of Friday afternoon.
First National Guard Hit In SoCal
17458.5
HQ703N, link quality analysis with T040NN in ALE at 1914.
US Army National Guard STARC Nationwide Net.
Other National Guard STARC ALE freqs heard nearer the scene include:
5817.0
8047.0
8622.0
12087.0
HQ703N, link quality analysis with T040NN in ALE at 1914.
US Army National Guard STARC Nationwide Net.
Other National Guard STARC ALE freqs heard nearer the scene include:
5817.0
8047.0
8622.0
12087.0
Galveston Area Local Statement 1832 UTC/ 1332 CDT
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131845-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY- BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL... AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA... OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND... KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE TO THE PENINSULA.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586... 77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET PORT O`CONNOR - 3.6 FEET
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET
GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET
SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS!
NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT... FRI 2:52 PM. SAT 2:59 PM. CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE... SAT 10:43 AM. EAGLE POINT... SAT 8:32 AM. PORT BOLIVAR... FRI 1:52 PM. SAT 4:52 AM. SAT 3:00 PM. GALVESTON CHANNEL... FRI 1:38 PM. SAT 4:38 AM. SAT 2:46 PM. GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER... SAT 3:32 AM. SAT 1:40 PM. JAMAICA BEACH... FRI 4:16 PM. SAT 7:16 AM. SAT 5:24 PM. SAN LUIS PASS... FRI 1:29 PM. SAT 4:29 AM. SAT 2:37 PM. FREEPORT... SAT 3:54 AM. SAT 2:02 PM. PORT O CONNOR... SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.
$$
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY- BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL... AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA... OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND... KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE TO THE PENINSULA.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586... 77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET PORT O`CONNOR - 3.6 FEET
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET
GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET
SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS!
NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT... FRI 2:52 PM. SAT 2:59 PM. CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE... SAT 10:43 AM. EAGLE POINT... SAT 8:32 AM. PORT BOLIVAR... FRI 1:52 PM. SAT 4:52 AM. SAT 3:00 PM. GALVESTON CHANNEL... FRI 1:38 PM. SAT 4:38 AM. SAT 2:46 PM. GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER... SAT 3:32 AM. SAT 1:40 PM. JAMAICA BEACH... FRI 4:16 PM. SAT 7:16 AM. SAT 5:24 PM. SAN LUIS PASS... FRI 1:29 PM. SAT 4:29 AM. SAT 2:37 PM. FREEPORT... SAT 3:54 AM. SAT 2:02 PM. PORT O CONNOR... SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.
$$
Hurricane Ike Advisory #46A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES....
AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.
DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES....
AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.
DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Hurricane Ike Partial Local Statement (Scary)
Entire statement here.
...
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
819 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT 12 MPH...
.AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAD RISEN TO 954 MB OR 28.17 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES IN WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM.
$$
Texas Emergency Information From Milcom Blog
Full posting here, highly recommended.
Several items of note for monitors:
The best area radio station in the Houston-Galveston area is KTRH News Radio 740. The audio stream link is http://www.ktrh.com/cc-common/ondemand/player.html?world=st
As first introduced on our sister blog the Btown monitor post the best hurricane information website is at Storm Pulse. You can reach that site at http://www.stormpulse.com/
Blog Logs started Sep-10-2008 17:36 Eastern Standard Time
4490.0 SHARES SCN Ch 3:- AAT3BF KNY58
4765.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- WWLNNN
4780.0 IN NG Primary:- INDOPS R22977
5015.0 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 2:- LRD1
5135.0 US Secure:- FC8 NA1SH SEMOHQ SEMO03
5140.0 US Secure:- FC8
5158.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- AAN3DCA AAT3BF EDXNNN WWLNNN
5378.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
5402.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
5711.0 SHARES SCN Channel 4 - AAT3BF
5817.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- NRK RLD
5821.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
5847.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- RLD
5961.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
6151.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FR5FEM
6785.0 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 7:- LRD1
6806.0 USAF CAP ALE:- 0004WICAP 0011ARCAP 100SWRCAP 101NCRCAP 2204LACAP AVS
6809.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR5FEM
7348.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM FR3 FR5FEM
7428.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) - FR5FEM
7642.0 DoD Tri Service MARS HF ALE Network:- 2PBAFA
8012.0 USAF CAP ALE:- 0011ARCAP 2204LACAP AVS
8037.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- VAB NRK
8047.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N L060AN VAB
8050.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) - FC8FEM FR5FEM
9025.0 USAF HF-GCS Scope Command ALE HF Network - ADW CRO OFF PLA
9106.0 SHARES SCN Channel 5 - AAT3BF 2PBAFA
9122.5 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Ch 8:- G323
10816.5 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N N040CN
10588.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM
11217.0 SHARES SCN Channel 6 - AAT3BF
12087.0 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N I100DN N040CN
12216.0 FEMA National Radio System (FNARS):- FC8FEM
13242.0 DISA NIPR:- ICZNPR MCCNPR
15094.0 SHARES SCN Ch 7:- 043NCS
17485.5 National Guard STARC Nationwide Net:- HQ703N I100DN
COTHEN: 500 501 701 720 A97 D48 F41 I97 J01 J03 J15 J19 J23 J38 LNT N01 PR1PRI PR1SEC TSC VE5
AQC ALE Address: MT8MWF
Frequencies: 5732.0 7527.0 8912.0 10242.0 11494.0 13907.0 15867.0 18594.0 20890.0 23214.0 25350.0
Evacuations Underway In Galveston Area
Bloomberg:
Hurricane Ike Aims at Houston; Evacuations Called (Update2)
By Brian K. Sullivan
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike tripled in size in the central Gulf of Mexico as it churned on a weekend collision course with the 5.6 million residents of the Houston area, where coastal communities prepared to evacuate.
The system's strongest winds extend as far as 115 miles (185 kilometers) from the eye, up from 35 miles yesterday, the Miami- based National Hurricane Center said today. Ike's wind field is now larger than that of Katrina, the storm that devastated New Orleans in 2005, said Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc.
``The total amount of energy is more powerful than Katrina, so we could be seeing a storm surge that could rival Katrina,'' Masters said. The storm is so large ``the location doesn't matter much; it is going to inundate a huge part of the Texas coast.''
Air Recon Taskings for September 12
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 11 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-103
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/2100,13/0000,0300Z
B. AFXXX 3309A IKE
C. 12/1845Z
D. 27.4N 93.7W
E. 12/2000Z TO 13/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA2 3409A IKE
C. 12/2000Z
D. NA
E. NA
D. SFC TO 8,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72X
A. 13/0600,0900,1200Z
B. AFXXX 3509A IKE
C. 13/0330Z
D. 28.4N 95.2W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 11 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-103
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/2100,13/0000,0300Z
B. AFXXX 3309A IKE
C. 12/1845Z
D. 27.4N 93.7W
E. 12/2000Z TO 13/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA2 3409A IKE
C. 12/2000Z
D. NA
E. NA
D. SFC TO 8,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72X
A. 13/0600,0900,1200Z
B. AFXXX 3509A IKE
C. 13/0330Z
D. 28.4N 95.2W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Hurricane Ike Advisory #42A
000
WTNT34 KNHC 111755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 111755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Houston, We Have A Problem (JSC Closes for Ike)
Sept. 11, 2008
Allard Beutel
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
allard.beutel@nasa.gov
Michael Curie
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-4715
michael.curie@nasa.gov
John Ira Petty
Johnson Space Center, Houston
281-483-5111
john.i.petty@nasa.gov
RELEASE: 08-230
NASA'S JOHNSON SPACE CENTER CLOSES FOR IKE
HOUSTON - NASA's Johnson Space Center will close at noon CDT Thursday and remain closed until the threat of Hurricane Ike has passed. Ike, a Category 2 hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to cross the Texas coast early Saturday as a Category 3 storm.
The International Space Station Flight Control Room at Mission Control in Houston was shut down Thursday morning. Station flight control continued through backup teams located near Austin, Texas, and Huntsville, Ala.
Most NASA aircraft at Ellington Field, located just north of Johnson, have been flown to a facility in El Paso, Texas. That includes 19 of 26 T-38s, a WB-57, and three of four shuttle training aircraft. Nine other aircraft are undergoing maintenance and have been secured in hangars at Ellington.
Johnson employees and journalists should call the Employee Information Line for updated news on the center's status. The local telephone number is 281-483-3351. If local communications are disrupted, employees can call a toll-free information line at 877-283-1947.
NASA has a Web site to convey important information to NASA employees and contractors impacted by Hurricane Ike at:
http://www.nasa.gov/eoc
-end-
Allard Beutel
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
allard.beutel@nasa.gov
Michael Curie
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-4715
michael.curie@nasa.gov
John Ira Petty
Johnson Space Center, Houston
281-483-5111
john.i.petty@nasa.gov
RELEASE: 08-230
NASA'S JOHNSON SPACE CENTER CLOSES FOR IKE
HOUSTON - NASA's Johnson Space Center will close at noon CDT Thursday and remain closed until the threat of Hurricane Ike has passed. Ike, a Category 2 hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to cross the Texas coast early Saturday as a Category 3 storm.
The International Space Station Flight Control Room at Mission Control in Houston was shut down Thursday morning. Station flight control continued through backup teams located near Austin, Texas, and Huntsville, Ala.
Most NASA aircraft at Ellington Field, located just north of Johnson, have been flown to a facility in El Paso, Texas. That includes 19 of 26 T-38s, a WB-57, and three of four shuttle training aircraft. Nine other aircraft are undergoing maintenance and have been secured in hangars at Ellington.
Johnson employees and journalists should call the Employee Information Line for updated news on the center's status. The local telephone number is 281-483-3351. If local communications are disrupted, employees can call a toll-free information line at 877-283-1947.
NASA has a Web site to convey important information to NASA employees and contractors impacted by Hurricane Ike at:
http://www.nasa.gov/eoc
-end-
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Air Recon Taskings 9/11-12
000
NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-102
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 WILL DEPART 11/1215Z FOR A BUOY
DROP MISSION IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AFXXX 2609A
IKE. SFC TO 10,000
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800,12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2709A IKE
C. 11/1530Z
D. 25.2N 89.7W
E. 11/1700Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 WILL BE A SURVEILLANCE MISSION
DEPARTING 11/1730Z. NOAA9 2809A IKE. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 11/2000Z. N0AA2 2909A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 3009A IKE
C. 12/0015Z
D. 25.6N 91.4W
E. 12/0200Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 43 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 12/0800Z. NOAA3 3109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
FLIGHT SEVEN -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1200,1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 3209A IKE
C. 12/0930Z
D. 26.3N 93.2W
E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.
WP-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-102
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 WILL DEPART 11/1215Z FOR A BUOY
DROP MISSION IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AFXXX 2609A
IKE. SFC TO 10,000
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800,12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2709A IKE
C. 11/1530Z
D. 25.2N 89.7W
E. 11/1700Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 WILL BE A SURVEILLANCE MISSION
DEPARTING 11/1730Z. NOAA9 2809A IKE. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 11/2000Z. N0AA2 2909A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 3009A IKE
C. 12/0015Z
D. 25.6N 91.4W
E. 12/0200Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 43 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING 12/0800Z. NOAA3 3109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
FLIGHT SEVEN -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1200,1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 3209A IKE
C. 12/0930Z
D. 26.3N 93.2W
E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.
WP-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Hurricane Ike Advisory #38
000
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike Advisory #35
000
WTNT34 KNHC 092043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 092043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Monday, September 08, 2008
Hurricane Ike Advisory #31
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
...CORRECTION TO REMOVE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 082056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
...CORRECTION TO REMOVE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
Saturday, September 06, 2008
September 7-8 Air Recon Taskings
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT SAT 06 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O7/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-098
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0909A IKE
C. 07/1500Z
D. 21.6N 74.1W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1009A IKE
C. 07/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1109A IKE
C. 08/0230Z
D. 21.8N 76.6W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1209A IKE
C. 08/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT
08/1500Z. A G-IV FOR 09/0000Z. A WP-3 AXBT DEPLOYMENT
AT 08/1600Z.
3. REMARKS: N0AA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING TISX AT 07/2000Z. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 061300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT SAT 06 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O7/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-098
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0909A IKE
C. 07/1500Z
D. 21.6N 74.1W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1009A IKE
C. 07/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1109A IKE
C. 08/0230Z
D. 21.8N 76.6W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1209A IKE
C. 08/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT
08/1500Z. A G-IV FOR 09/0000Z. A WP-3 AXBT DEPLOYMENT
AT 08/1600Z.
3. REMARKS: N0AA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING TISX AT 07/2000Z. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Hurricane Ike Advisory #23
000
WTNT34 KNHC 062044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008
...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
WTNT34 KNHC 062044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008
...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
Friday, September 05, 2008
Scary Hurricane Ike Advisory #20
000
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...
AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES... 580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...
AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES... 580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.
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FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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