Fay Still There, KSC Still Closed (Wednesday)

Aug. 20, 2008

Allard Beutel
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
allard.beutel@nasa.gov

RELEASE: 18-08

NASA KENNEDY SPACE CENTER REMAINS CLOSED WEDNESDAY

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA's Kennedy Space Center, Fla., will remain closed Wednesday because of the potential wind threat to workers from Tropical Storm Fay. Center managers decided Wednesday morning to keep Kennedy closed another day to general personnel through at least workers' second shift, which ends late Wednesday night.
Managers will reevaluate the situation at 11 a.m. EDT and update employees by noon through the center 's hurricane phone lines and the agency 's emergency operations Web site.
So far, there are no reports of any injuries or damage associated with Fay at the center.

Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex also remains closed Wednesday.

The storm is forecast to pass over Kennedy around mid-day and move off shore by the afternoon. The top sustained wind recorded at Kennedy overnight was about 66 mph with peak gusts about 77 mph. The center is forecast to experience tropical force wind through the afternoon.

About 200 emergency personnel, known as a "ride-out crew", are staying on site through out the storm. They will begin making initial damage assessments two hours after the sustained wind drops below 58 mph and if there is daylight. The ride-out team hopes that will be today, but it depends on Fay 's movement.

Kennedy workers should check with the center 's hurricane information phone line for the latest status: 321-861-7900 or 1-866-572-4877.

Center storm updates also will be available online at the agency 's emergency operation center Web site at: http://www.nasa.gov/eoc

Reporters also can hear the latest status by using Kennedy 's media update phone line at 321-867-2525.

For information about Kennedy Space Center, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/kennedy

-end-

TCPOD Link Fixed

The link to the Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day stopped working when the path to the file was changed for an unknown reason. I've changed it to a page at NHC (National Hurricane Center, FL) that collects a number of CARCAH (Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance, All Hurricanes, at NHC) and winter storm products. It's better, and probably far more reliable.

KSC Closed Tuesday for Fay

Aug. 19, 2008

Allard Beutel
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
allard.beutel@nasa.gov

Michael Curie
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-4715
Michael.curie@nasa.gov

RELEASE: 16-08

NASA'S KENNEDY SPACE CENTER CLOSES FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- NASA's Kennedy Space Center will be closed Tuesday, Aug. 19, because of the potential threat from Tropical Storm Fay. Current plans call for the center to be closed for 24 hours, starting with workers' first-shift Tuesday morning. Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex also is closed Tuesday.

Kennedy managers are scheduled to meet again at 5 p.m. EDT to reevaluate the storm's status and its impact on the center.

Fay made landfall Tuesday morning along Florida's southwest coast. It is forecast to affect Kennedy Tuesday afternoon with heavy rain and possible tropical storm force wind.

While most of Kennedy's almost 15,000 employees will not be at work, the center will have a small group of emergency personnel, known as a "ride-out crew," who will stay at the center to provide real-time assessments of the storm situation. There are about 200 people on the ride-out crew.

All three space shuttles have been secured in their Orbiter Processing Facilities. The shuttles have been powered down in their hangars and their payload bay doors have been closed to protect them from possible damage. Critical Hubble Space Telescope and International Space Station flight hardware has been protectively covered.

Kennedy workers should check with the center's hurricane information phone line for the latest status at 321-861-7900 or 1-866-572-4877

Center storm updates also will be available online at the agency's emergency operation center Web site at: http://www.nasa.gov/eoc

Reporters also can hear the latest status by using Kennedy’s media update phone line at 321-867-2525.

For information about Kennedy Space Center, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/kennedy

-end-

T.S. Fay Advisory #16

000
WTNT31 KNHC 191444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY IS NOT IN A HURRY TO CROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...FLORIDA KEYS SOUTHWEST OF OCEAN REEF...AND FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...EAST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND...20 MILES...30 KM SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKECHOBBE.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. SOME RESTRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N...81.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM EDT AND 300 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 12

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181438
TCPAT1 BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL062008 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...CENTER OF FAY NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

Digital Mode of the "Week:" Hellschreiber

Hellschreiber means "shiny writing" in German. It's an old (1929) German direct printing mode used in World War II. It's inventor was a Dr. Rudolph Hell, which is one more reason to call the mode "Hell" and be through with it.

According to the history here, the original mechanical Hell was a popular alternative to more complex and expensive teleprinters. It was extremely simple. The receiver had two moving parts: a rotating print head and a tape feeder. Copy was printed, in pixels, onto an endless tape of treated paper. There were no carriage returns or line feeds.

The transmitter wasn't a whole lot more complex. A keyboard selected the proper wiper on a rotating drum containing contact strips for all characters. A space was nothing at all - a null frame. The result was a series of simple on-off pulses that could key a 900-Hz audio oscillator (for phone lines or MCW emission), or sometimes straight on-off CW. Today, the audio pulses are sent to a USB transmitter (350HJ2C mode). The narrow bandwidth is achieved through the use of raised-cosine shaping, making the mode less clicky.

This mode obviously lends itself well to computer software, and it is included in most multimode packages. There's also one of those nice stand-alone IZ8BLY programs. All of these use a virtual tape, printing lines of characters across white (or sometimes optionally yellow) strips on the screen.

Hell has the interesting attribute of being completely intended for visual reading by the receive operator. While its creation was and is digital, its reception is fuzzy. This is especially true if the software allows a grey scale, making the mode even fuzzier.

Fuzzy modes are quite the thing right now, since they allow people to do more and better processing than any practical software ever would. Things like "almost" and "that looks right" become a third logic state. SSTV, FAX, and CW Morse telegraphy are also fuzzy modes.

The mode most commonly used today is based on a robust, WWII, military variant named Feld-Hell ("Field Hell" ) You can make jokes like "War is Hell." Everyone else does.

Feld-Hell codes characters into series of on-off pulses, using a simple 7x7 character cell. For better resolution, two half-height pixels are transmitted instead of one full-height pixel. There's no key-up betweeen pixels, so they print together. This is what allows the half-height font smoothing. (It would strongly appear that Dr. Hell had hit upon the idea of sub-pixel fonts.)

This leads to a system where 150 characters are transmitted per minute, with each pulse 8.163 ms long. Effective throughput is 2.5 characters per second at 122.5 baud, or approximately 25 words per minute, which is plenty for hand typing.

Today's tape is a virtual one, drawn on the computer screen, and it's usually white. The audio tone is typically 980 Hz, for zero-axis crossing synchronous with the pixels, also conserving RF bandwidth.

Receiving consists of tuning in the Hell signal until the copy is as clearly black and white as you can get it. Waterfall displays are helpful. The signal sounds like kind of a bzzt bzzt, bzzt bzzt, which can be confused with impulse QRN from sparking electrical equipment, etc.

Weak signals will print lighter in grey scale. As you get down into the noise, the print just becomes harder to read, as opposed to just stopping. While printing can be seriously messed up by the usual HF propagation effects, the human brain can usually sort it out.

QRM is another matter. You wind up with abstract art.

Although characters are inherently in phase, timing errors cause the lines to slope. Computer sound cards are very prone to this. Hellschreiber has traditionally printed the copy

TWICE
TWICE

on the tape, so that one line will always be visible. It's weird, but it works.

A good place to lurk for Hellschreiber is around the amateur calling frequency of 14063 kHz USB. Lesser activity is on 7063, LSB or USB (not important, except for frequency accuracy). Most software also implements Hell in PSK, FSK, and a DX mode, though I haven't heard any of these much. There are also different fonts, which is no small achievement in such a character-based mode. Use of a large font can sometimes improve readability in noisy conditions.

Hope for UK PLC Threat

Good news for HF comes so rarely that I'd be derelict not to report when it does. It appears that, after many meetings and hand-wringings, the UK's privatized phone company (BT) and its privatized version of the US FCC (OfCom) have arrived at something of a compromise. I wish I'd been a fly on the wall at THOSE meetings!

The result is that, according to OfCom, Mike's uncooperative neighbors in West Sussex have finally accepted a hard-wired solution after being "persuaded" by BT personnel.

In my opinion, the whole damn industry should accept a hard-wired solution. I've got TV and network cables all over my baseboards and around doorways and all that. What's the problem?

But then, I'm weird.

Mike reports the PLC units should be gone within a week, and he'll get use of his radios back. If this happens, it's a much faster resolution than I've gotten used to from the underfunded US FCC.

Details on UKQRM.

Is the Lincolnshire Poacher Off Air?

No one's heard the Poacher (ENIGMA designator E03a) since June. People have looked. This is (was?) a British intelligence service numbers station presumed to be broadcast, in English, from one of several large antenna farms near Akrotiri, Cyprus, on a beam toward the Middle East. It sent a daily schedule several hours long on several frequencies, usually 3 at once. The content was a machine-generated female-voice messages preceded by a mechanical version of the "Lincolnshire Poacher" folk tune.

"Cherry Ripe" (E03a) a similar service beamed at Asia from Guam, may or may not be on the air. There are reports of it still transmitting, but I can't verify this. For some reason (certainly not propagation) it's never been very strong here, possibly due to antenna beam if the nice setup on Cyprus is any indication of what they have on Guam.

Frequencies used at one time or another in the past few years include:

5422 5746 6485 6900 6945 6959 7337 7755 8464 9251 10426 11545 12603 13375 14487 15682 16084

(all Khz)

UK QRM Group Mentioned in Amateur Radio Newsline

Amateur Radio Newsline is a respected (and copyrighted) voice broadcast with MP3 files and written transcripts available here. It is heard by thousands of hams worldwide.

This week's Newsline mentioned the PLC interference situation in the UK:

Radio Netherlands reports that a new Yahoo Group called UKQRM has been formed. This, as a meeting place for those who use the high frequency bands and who are suffering from interference caused by Broadband over Power Lines or BPL.

In announcing the group, Radio Netherlands Worldwide's Andy Sennitt is quoted as saying that the traditional DX clubs have been very slow to latch-on to the threat posed by this technology. Because of this it is encouraging to see that at least some listeners in the United Kingdom are trying to raise awareness of the problem.

More at the link.

More On PLC Trouble in Portugal

More ominous news from Portugal via UKQRM:

Hi everybody,

I'm Joe, SWL CT0347 and CT4AN, Amateur for several decades and space telecom researcher. Thanks to the owner and moderators for giving me the opportunity to be a member of your Group.

I am very worry about the situation of using main power lines (inside houses or not) with other kind of signals not beeing 50Hz.In my country, Portugal, we have now a new big problem with that kind of signal on wide & broadband TV distribution and Internet services. A few years ago, we had our Power Company trying to establish BPL but, with the strong oposition of SWL, Ham operators and CB's, we finished their business.

Now we have PLC distribution inside the houses, for MEO services (broadband Internet, TV and phone) made by Portuguese Telecom PT, using [law suit avoidance mode -hugh] plc boxes; we are beeing all blocked on HF - all short wave listening, CB band, Amateur HF Bands, etc are getting impossible with the noise produced by those equipments, covering on full data-streem all HF from 2MHz till 35 MHz. It's a junk ... and THE END OF OUR SHORTWAVES.

Even with "gaps" on it's spectrum, located only in some Amateur HF Bands, the QRM is very-very strong, with levels of >80 dB/uV detected in a distance of 200 meters from the focus. The "notch" (when in operation ...) have 40dB of attenuation in the best, that is insuficient to preserve the noise-floor level needed for DX communications on Shortwave Bands (-110dBm minimum). That's a mess ...I would like to hear from you about your PLC experiences in your countries, with your PTT's Authorities, with your Clubs and Associations, and exchange information and possible common solutions and strifes.

GOOD DX'S BUT ... WITHOUT PLC AND OTHER DECREPIT TECHNOLOGY !!
J.F.// CT4AN

PLC Interference Spreads to Portugal

Posting from the UKQRM list. If you want HF to be for radio communications, not for some corporation's stupid idea for quick and dirty data networking that can be done several other ways with only a tiny bit more work, you will want to join this list and get involved. The alternative, as I continue to assure you, is that HF will be unusable in most cities and many rural areas within 10 years.

As in the UK, the problem seems to be with plug-in power line networking adapters provided with home Internet video systems to send continuous data streams the "last mile" (really on the order of tens of feet) from the net hub to televisions in other rooms of homes. This seems to be the consumer technology of the moment in Europe, where it competes with direct satellite for the non-government commercial programming market.

No attempt has been made to change the translation into "better" English. It communicates just fine the way it is, as posted to the list:

Hello. PLC strikes in Portugal. Some domestic tv box services is sailing in Portugal and works with PLC technologies causes a qrm in most amateur band and broadcasting receives stations. Costumer buy the service 3play in tv-net-phone and doesn't know the new service causes a qrm from a domestic PLC.The PLC modems i found in most costumers are by [omitted - I hate lawsuits, even when I win them - hugh] .

[] has a notch filters for use in IARU Region 1 but this filters in most cases dont work probaly and a strong interference can heard inside of amateurs band.

The specifications of [] are 2-34Mhz with a pwr about -56dBm and can syncronizate about 300meters distance.

In most cases qrm afects many amateur radio bands from 80m to 10m and in one case to 40mhz with signals about s9+30db in all modes.

Portuguese amateurs radio complaint to ANACOM (Anacom is the same as FCC is for usa) to resolve this problem but we wait to much time,Anacom is silent about this problem and the cicle solar [year?] has come.

.......................SAYS NO TO PLC TECNHOLOGIES..........73.

73 from Hugo Barata CT2HMX

Propagation: NASA Finds Cause for Auroral Substorms

Polar substorms are sudden fluctuations in the aurora caused by bursts of charged particles in periods of solar-terrestrial disturbance. These cause sudden changes in already disturbed radio propagation, as terrestrial magnetic fields and currents redistribute themselves.

NASA's new THEMIS, a five-satellite constellation that takes data on the earth's magnetosphere, has provided evidence that these substorms come from shifts and re-connections of the disturbed magnetosphere, far out from the planet.

Researchers have discovered that an explosion of magnetic energy a third of the way to the moon powers substorms, sudden brightenings and rapid movements of the aurora borealis, called the Northern Lights.

The culprit turns out to be magnetic reconnection, a common process that occurs throughout the universe when stressed magnetic field lines suddenly "snap" to a new shape, like a rubber band that's been stretched too far.

...

These observations confirm for the first time that magnetic reconnection triggers the onset of substorms. The discovery supports the reconnection model of substorms, which asserts a substorm starting to occur follows a particular pattern. This pattern consists of a period of reconnection, followed by rapid auroral brightening and rapid expansion of the aurora toward the poles. This culminates in a redistribution of the electrical currents flowing in space around Earth.

Dolly Now A Hurricane (Advisory #10)

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

No Dolly Air Taskings Wednesday

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 22 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION (TEAL 49) FOR 23/0000Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1230Z. ALL OTHER MISSIONS ON
DOLLY WILL OPERATE AS PLANNED ON TCPOD 08-051.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. 0UTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

14325 Hurricane Watch Net Tentatively Activating Tuesday

Seen on HWN Web Site:

The Hurricane Watch Net provides communications to and from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida during times of hurricane emergencies. The net (a gathering of amateur radio operators missioned to support the National Hurricane Center) convenes as an organized network of emergency communicators on the frequency of 14.325 Mhz when a hurricane is forecast to be within 300 statute miles from landfall on any inhabited land mass in the Caribbean Sea, Central America, and U.S. Mainland including the Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.

As of 11am EDT (1500UTC), Monday, July 21, we have announced a tentative net activation plan in response to TS Dolly which is forecast to be a Cat 1 hurricane on the Texas/Mexico border on Wednesday of this week. Our plan is to activate the net at 1400EDT (1800UTC) on Tuesday, July 22, and to remain until the 20-meter band closes on Tuesday night. Our primary purpose during that session will be to disseminate Tropical Advisory information and to identify and list reporting stations in the affected area in the path of the storm who can be available on Wednesday as the storm is forecast to make landfall.

On Wednesday morning, we plan to activate the net at first band opening (estimated 0800CDT) for the purpose of collecting observed and/or measured weather informaiton in the affected area. We will secure net operations only after the storm has been downgraded from Hurricane status..

It is requested that you monitor the status of Dolly through information presented here in our web site.

Please remember to visit this page frequently for the latest information.

Expanded Dolly Aircraft Taskings for 7/22

Hot off the wire:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
11145 AM EDT MON 21 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 22/18Z,21Z, & 23/00Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1604 DOLLY B. NOAA9 1704A DOLLY
C. 22/1515Z C. 22/1730Z
D. 24.7N 94.5W D. NA
E. 22/1700Z TO 23/0000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/03Z, 06Z, 09Z
B. NOAA3 1804A DOLLY B. AFXXX 1904A DOLLY
C. 22/2030Z C. 23/0001Z
D. 25.2N 95.2 W D. 25.3N 95.5W
E. 22/2230Z TO 23/0300Z E. 23/0200Z TO 23/0900Z
F. SFC TO 14,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1200Z A. 23/12Z,15Z,18Z
B. NOAA2 2004A DOLLY B. AFXXX 2104A DOLLY
C. 23/0900Z C. 23/0900Z
D. 25.9N 96.4W D. 25.9N 96.4W
E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1530Z E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1800Z
F. SFC TO 14,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.

3. REMARKS: TASKING ON CRISTOBAL CANCELED AT 21/07Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Some Hurricane Season Links

National Hurricane Center
This year the NHC has a new interactive map that gives information when you mouse over tropical features. This should prove to be a real time saver in what's shaping up as a busy season.

TCPOD (Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day)
This is the daily CARCAH (Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes) product ordering air recon for the next day. Good to see who's going to be up. CARCAH is a small (3-person) office at NHC. Here's what it looks like.

Air Recon Data
More than anyone will ever need to know. Note that these are the raw observations and need to be combined with other data by the National Hurricane Center before they are safe for use in decisions regarding life and property.

NHC Advisory Archive
Good for tracking data or to see if an area had been affected on previous days.

53rd Weather Recon Site
Official web site for the Air Force Reserve "Hurricane Hunters" out of Biloxi, MS. Radio callsign is TEAL. It is likely that GULL either never existed or was used just briefly enough to create perpetual Internet folklore. TEAL is the one they use. Most comm is by satellite, but the front end can be heard on aero frequencies and the back end running patches through Air Force MARS on 13927 kHz.

NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
NOAA's WP-3D aircraft also do the "Hurricane Hunter" dropsonde missions inside the storms. They also operate a Gulfstream IV-SP which can drop instruments from high above hurricanes.

Hurricane tracking maps at Accuweather
Last year I got pretty good at tracking hurricanes just in Adobe Acrobat Pro, by layering line graphics over the PDF files of NHC's blank tracking maps from their site. This is kind of an expensive way to do it, though, if you don't already have the software for something else. Well, whatever. Anyway, this site has a lot of maps of smaller areas than the large "official" ones of entire oceans, allowing more detailed plotting as the hurricane nears landfall. You can get really Weather Channel on this stuff, though it's just as easy really to watch it on the Weather Channel.

U of W Tropical Cyclones
A comprehensive web page that pulls together links to a lot of satellite images, charts, and other hurricane products.

Weather Underground Tropical Page
Like the one above, only slicker and somewhat more "commercial" looking. Not saying this is good or bad, just saying it is. It also pulls together a lot of information.

Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory #5

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Wednesday's Solar Flux Was NOT the Lowest!

An important correction to all the speculation on Wednesday's solar flux comes from the mailing list of Thomas F. Giella (KN4LF). After searching the data (available here), he's come up with a daily uncorrected 10.7 cm solar radio flux of 62.6 on November 3, 1954.

Personal examination of the data confirms this.

Of course, there is some debate regarding the validity of direct comparisons. Several variables exist, which are way too technical to get into here.

Yesterday's discussion of why solar fluxes adjust higher in summer and lower in winter still holds. The Earth's orbit is still at aphelion in July. That makes a November daily flux of 62.6 even more remarkable, since it adjusted downward to a phenomenal 61.6. No wonder the formula for flux vs sunspot numbers should be considered an approximation, since it doesn't allow anything lower than 67!!!

Those seeking any predictive value from Wednesday's low solar flux would be cautioned that less than four years later, in 1958, came the start of the highest solar maximum ever measured, with many uncorrected daily fluxes in the high 300's. While this does not change the fact that Cycle 24 is VERY late, we should remember that the sun will do what it wants to do.

"Digital" Mode of the Week: Slow-Scan TV

Like HF FAX, the rather misnamed "Slow Scan Television" mode is actually analog. However, it appears in most multimode packages intended for digital reception, and it is also one of the more fun things you can do with a radio and a computer.

I can't imagine anyone actually using SSTV to send continuous video frames, though the simpler black and white versions would at least be able to do a couple of these per minute rather than a couple of minutes per frame. The major use for SSTV is for amateurs to swap still photos. In fact, I can't think of any commercial applications for the SSTV mode on the radio. The closest would be the pictures sometimes sent down by ham radios on the International Space Station.

Old B/W SSTV was a kind of scaled-down (320x240), sped-up version of FAX. It, too, used frequency or audio-frequency modulation of a single carrier or tone over 800 Hz, with black at 1500 and white at 2300. For digital, the grey scale is quantized to 256 levels (8 bits), which are plenty.

One of the first innovations was to add color. This was first done by sending the three color channels sequentially in full frame. This didn't show the true colors until all three frames were received, a rather slow process. A later innovation was line-sequential mode. It typically sends each line three times, with one 1200-Hz, 5-ms, sync pulse at the start of the red line.

One of the early color modes was Robot, as originally done in dedicated hardware boxes with a huge "ROBOT" logo on the front. It really looked like something from science fiction, and cost like it too.

Out of the 30-some common SSTV modes still in existence, nearly all transmissions are in Martin 1 (114 sec for a 320x256 frame), Martin 2 (58 sec), Scottie 1 (110 sec), Scottie 2 (71 sec), and Scottie DX (268 sec). Martin 1 and 2 were developed by amateur Martin Emmerson, G3OQD, and they are common in Europe. Scottie was developed by another British ham, Eddie ("Scottie") Murphy, GM3SBC. Its modes are dominant in the United States and Japan.

SSTV can be tuned the same way as FAX, by centering the audio between the high and low lines on the computer display. It's trickier, but you can also center the sync pulse as close to 1200 as you can get it. Most programs have AFC if you're off a few hertz. The little picture will start to scan down its part of the screen. One of the nice things about most analog transfer modes is you can start in the middle, and that's possible here too.

SSTV software can auto-start, and also it can auto-mode, either by measuring the interval between sync pulses or reading a start burst called a VIS signal. The VIS consists of a 1200-Hz marker followed by a mode designator in FSK between 1100 and 1300 Hz. A similar optional code is sent at the end of a picture.

SSTV, like FAX, will be slanted proportional to the difference between your clock frequency and that of the sending station. Various programs cope with slant correction in various ways, usually by buffering the picture and allowing its adjustment in real time during reception. This can be manual or automatic. One program, MMSSTV, allows you to click on a happy face when you get a straight picture from a "trusted" station, locking in this correction.

By far the most active SSTV frequency is 14230 kHz USB, which really lights up on weekends, going also to 14228 when there's QRM. When 20 dies, there's lesser activity on 7171 kHz LSB, +/- a kHz or so. There's also spotty activity on 6 and 2 meter VHF. Oh, and some parts of the world have pirate SSTV networks outside the amateur bands, which exchange pictures that are far more X-rated than anything amateurs can get away with.

You might have heard of the even more misnamed "digital SSTV." It uses file transfer software to exchange data, which in this case just happens to be pictures. It's typically on 14233 kHz USB, using one particular, rather fussy and esoteric program. It looks great, but it requires a very high signal to noise and almost no fading.

One of the programs designed for this purpose is the same DIGTRX that the Cuban SK01 numbers station uses to send its weird little files. Woe betide any ham who transmits with this one on 14233, though, since it is not the OFFICIAL program mentioned above. You'll think you had a visit from the Wouff Hong. Don't hate ham radio, just come back to good old grungy noisy easy and fun analog.